Birmingham 2015 Residential Real Estate Sales Finish Strong

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for December 2015

Monthly Birmingham Sales

Monthly Birmingham Sales

Full year results:

Total Units New Used Total Dollars
2014 15,686 1,698 13,988 $3,006,565,892
2015 16,813 1,748 15,065 $3,334,574,593
% change 7.2% 2.9% 7.7% 10.9%

Dollar sales in December experienced an expected year end pick-up of 18% to $235,361,806 from November $200,218,537, almost identical to last December’s of $238,138,339 (off 1%). The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales over the last three months of the year has flattened.

Total Unit sales were up 20% to 1,231 in December from 1,023 in November, an increase of 208. This is up by 5% from last December at 1,172. New sales were up at 158 homes this month and 115 in November and off from 177 last year. The price pressure and low inventory levels of new homes suggests a good environment for builders. Used sales were 1,073 homes in December, up 18% from 908 last month, an increase of 165, and up by 78 units or 8% from 995 last year (Sect E p.3).

ACRE numbers are slightly different from those we report. With ACRE, we released our 2015 forecast which can be seen here: ACRE. December sales were not yet available. ACRE’s year-to-date sales forecast through November projected 12,332 closed transactions while the actual sales were 12,289 units, (off by 43 units) a cumulative variance of -.35%. Given the December increase in actual sales reported here, I expect we will come in very close for the full year.

Housing permits were off in Jefferson County to 58 in November from 101 in October, which is off from 72 last year. This is the lowest level since August 2014. Shelby County was 26 from 32 last month, up from 10 last year.

Total inventory is slightly lower this month at 8,876 vs. last month at 9,571 and somewhat less than 9,002 last year. Active New listings decreased to 931 in December from 1,025 in November (Sect E p.3). Absorption rate for New homes is at 6 months supply this month, which is about even with 6 months last year. (Sect E p.3). The New homes for the most part have normal inventory levels in the 1-7 month range depending on area and price range. However, the $800,000-$900,000 range has 22 months of supply (11 houses) (Sect C p.1). This level of inventory, both in months of inventory and housing units has been quite stable for the year.

Absorption for Used homes in December shows 6 months which is about even with 7 last year. Used Active listings at 7,945 are even with last month at 8,546 and a bit less than 8,109 last  year (Sect E p.3).For the year, inventory levels have generally trended down from prior years. Market performance is highly area specific, so check the individual area charts. For instance, Mountain Brook has between 1 and 9 months of inventory except in the over $900,000 category, which has 10 months of inventory (39 homes), with none sold in that price range last month . There are a number of MLS areas showing similarly low levels of inventory, including Homewood (only 3 months of inventory).

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 205 compared with last month at 207. The Used homes DOM was 125 in December vs 121 last month, (Sect A p.18). Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $310,211 from $333,656 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales price for Sold Used homes decreased to $173,670 from $178,247 last month (Sect A p2). The moving average price for all homes has been up steadily for the past year. (Sect A p2).

TWB 1/10/2016

Alabama Coastal Real Estate Has an Outstanding Year

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of December 2015

Baldwin Monthly Sales

Baldwin Monthly Sales

Full Year Results:

Total Units New Used Total Dollars
2014 5,655 674 4,979 $1,339,354,065
2015 6,300 821 5,479 $1,536,937,695
% change 11.4% 21.8% 10.0% 14.8%

Sales dollars increased more than expected; 33% in December to $122,750,797 from November $92,442,408. This is 24% above December last year at $99,245,507. (Sect A p.2). There was also an expected increase in last month late reported sales, making every month this year better than last year’s healthy levels.The 12 month moving average line of sales, which had continued to point up steadily for three years, has now gotten a healthy upwards tilt. Lack of new construction now seems to be depressing sales somewhat. Inventories are trending down.

Sales in most price categories show consistent improvement. Inventories are improving, but remain high at over a year for anything over $500,000. This month the $400,000-$500,000 inventory dipped to 9 months.

In concert with ACRE, The Alabama Center for Real Estate, we have projected expectations for 2015. We use the ACRE provided data for the projections, which differs slightly from the data in this report. The projection for 2015 located here expected a unit increase of 17% over 2014 actual. Through November cumulative sales are running 8% ahead of the projection. As of the moment December is not yet available.

On a unit basis, sales of all houses were up 22% at 479 this month vs. last month at 394, which is 22% better than last year’s healthy level of 466. Used Home sales decreased 17% to 414 this month vs. 351 last month, which is up 3% from last year’s 399 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 65 this month vs 43 last month and compared with 66 last year. New listings for New homes decreased to 99 from 134 in November. Used homes New listings decreased to 366 from 527 in November with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has been consistently  improving. In December, there were 2,956 Active Used homes, a reduction from 3,657 in November and a new multi year low level. New homes, which peaked in December 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 486.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 7 months of inventory in December vs. 9 in November. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 7 months of inventory in December vs. 8 in November. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in November 2008 to 7 months this December. The inventory of homes in the upper price range remains high with homes over $500,000 at over a year’s supply, but even here we are seeing improvement. I would expect construction to begin to pick-up in the under $400,000 range, but so far have not seen it.

Average sales price for all homes has been improving modestly for the past year. For New units, prices increased to  $241,463 from $227,591 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices increased to $258,589 from $235,487 in November. The price trend is up for the year. Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in December was 161 vs last month of 170. Days On Market for Used was 160 compared to last month 149.

TWB 1/10/2016

Birmingham Area November Sales About Even With Last Year

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for November 2015

Dollar sales in November experienced a seasonal decline of 21% to $191,265,221 from October $243,024,990, almost identical to last November’s of $192,277,597  (off .5%). The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales has flattened. It seems to me that there has been a somewhat larger number of late reported sales which means that prior month totals are higher than what we showed last month by larger amounts than has historically been the case. It is important to view the overall trend and not get hung up on the precision of the latest month’s number.

Total Unit sales were down 24% to 976 in November from 1,279 in October, a decrease of 303. This is off by 7% from last November at 1048. New sales were off at 107 homes this month and 109 in October and off from 124 last year. The price pressure and low inventory levels of new homes suggests a good environment for builders. Used sales were 869 homes in November, down 26% from 1,170 last month, a decrease of 301, and off by 55 units or 6% from 924 last year (Sect E p.3).

ACRE numbers are slightly different from those we report. With ACRE, we released our 2015 forecast which can be seen here: ACRE. November sales were 17% or 159 units below our forecast. ACRE’s year-to-date sales forecast through November projected 12,332 closed transactions while the actual sales were 12,289 units, (off by 43 units) a cumulative variance of -.35%.

Total inventory is slightly lower this month at 9,353 vs. last month at 9,646 and somewhat less than 9,748 last year. Active New listings decreased to 921 in November from 1,025 in October (Sect E p.3).

Housing permits were up in Jefferson County to 101 in October from 83 in September, which is off from 113 last year. Shelby County went to 32 from 30 last month, up from 20 last year.

Absorption rate for New homes is at 6 months supply this month, which is about even with 7 months last year. (Sect E p.3). The New homes for the most part have normal inventory levels in the 1-7 month range depending on area and price range. However, the $800,000-$900,000 range has 21 months of supply (Sect C p.1).

Absorption for Used homes in November shows 7 months which is about even with 8 last year. Used Active listings at 8,432 are even with last month at 8,681 and about the same as 8,815 last year (Sect E p.3). Market performance is highly area specific, so check the individual area charts. For instance, Mountain Brook has between 1 and 9 months of inventory except in the over $900,000 category, which has 10 months of inventory (43 homes), with 3 sold in that price range last month . The average days on market for that category is 56. There are a number of MLS areas showing similarly low levels of inventory, including Homewood and Fultondale.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 207 compared with last month at 189. The Used homes DOM was 121 in November vs 125 last month, (Sect A p.18). Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $342,420 from $302,778 last month (note that there was one sale for $4,000,000 raising the average) (Sect A p2). Average sales price for Sold Used homes increased to $177,936 from $179,506 last month (Sect A p2). The moving average price for all homes has been up steadily for the past year. (Sect A p2). 

TWB 12/13/2015

November Alabama Coastal Real Estate Sales Slow Slightly

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of November 2015

Sales dollars decreased 24% in November to $90,943,509 from October $120,159,190. This is 5% under November last year at $95,902,473. (Sect A p.2). This is the 1st month in the last year that sales dollars are slightly lower than the last year. I imagine that late sales reported next month will raise the total above last year’s numbers. Nonetheless, the month was slower than expected. The 12 month moving average line of sales, which had continued to point up steadily for three years, has now gotten a healthy upwards tilt. The 12 month average is close to the record levels achieved in 2006 with more homes sold, but at lower average prices. Lack of new construction now seems to be depressing sales somewhat. Inventories are trending down.

Sales in most price categories show consistent improvement. Inventories are improving, but remain high at over a year for anything over $500,000. This month the $400,000-$500,000 inventory dipped to 10 months.

In concert with ACRE, The Alabama Center for Real Estate, we have projected expectations for 2015. We use the ACRE provided data for the projections, which differs slightly from the data in this report. The projection for 2015 located here expected a unit increase of 17% over 2014 actual. Through October cumulative sales are running 8% ahead of the projection. For the month of October sales were 5% above the projection.

On a unit basis, sales of all houses were off 19% at 388 this month vs. last month at 481, which is 10% below last year’s healthy level of 429. There is still substantial inventory (used) available to satisfy demand.

Used Home sales decreased 17% to 345 this month vs. 414 last month, which is off 6% from last year’s 368 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 43 this month vs 67 last month and compared with 61 last year.

New listings for New homes increased to 133 from 117 in October. Used homes New listings decreased to 518 from 640 in October with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has once again been improving. In November, there were 3,261 Active Used homes, a reduction from 3,755 in October and a new multi year low level. The New home market, which peaked in November 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 508.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 7 months of inventory in November vs. 7 in October. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 7 months of inventory in November vs. 8 in October. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in October 2008 to 7 months this November. The inventory of homes in the upper price range remains high with homes over $500,000 at over a year’s supply, but even here we are seeing improvement. I would expect to see construction begin to pick-up in the under $400,000 range, but so far have not seen it.

Average sales price for all homes has been improving modestly for the past year. For New units, prices decreased to  $227,591 from $293,618 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices decreased to $235,238 from $242,722 in October. The price trend is up for the year. Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in November was 170 vs last month of 177. Days On Market for Used was 149 compared to last month 143.

TWB 12/13/2015

Birmingham Residential Real Estate Even with Last October

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for October 2015

In June the Birmingham MLS changed its base system. We have recoded the data to be consistent. Let me know if you see anything strange!

Dollar sales in October experienced a seasonal decline of 19% to $237,234,031 from September $292,441,366, off by 3% from last October’s of $245,404,227. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales has flattened. It seems to me that there has been a somewhat larger number of late reported sales which means that prior month totals are higher than what we showed last month by larger amounts than has historically been the case. It is important to view the overall trend and not get hung up on the precision of the latest month’s number.

Total Unit sales were down 3% to 1,240 in October from 1,515 in September, a decrease of 46. This is even  with last October at 1303. New sales were off at 104 homes this month and 179 in September and off from 143 last year. The price pressure and low inventory levels of new homes suggests a good environment for builders. Used sales were 1,136 homes in October, down 3% from 1,336 last month, a decrease of 45, and up by 70 units or .6% from 1,160 last year (Sect E p.3).

ACRE numbers are slightly different from those we report. With ACRE, we released our 2015 forecast which can be seen here: ACRE. For September, the latest available: September sales were 5% or 59 units above our forecast. ACRE’s year-to-date sales forecast through September projected 10,358 closed transactions while the actual sales were 10,471 units, a cumulative variance of 1%.

Total inventory is about even this month at 9,533 vs. last month at 9,970 and about even with 9,876 last year. Active New listings decreased to 940 in October from 1,056 in September (Sect E p.3).

Housing permits were off in Jefferson County to 83 in September from 90 in August, which is off from 95 last year. Shelby County went from 30 to 28 in September, off from 38 last year.

Absorption rate for New homes is at 6 months supply this month, which is about even with 7 months last year. (Sect E p.3). The New homes for the most part have normal inventory levels in the 1-7 month range depending on area and price range. However, the $800,000-$900,000 range has 20 months of supply (Sect C p.1).

Absorption for Used homes in October shows 7 months which is about even with 8 last year. Used Active listings at 8,593 are even with last month at 8,914 and about the same as 8,936 last year (Sect E p.3). Market performance is highly area specific, so check the individual area charts. For instance, Mountain Brook has between 1 and 9 months of inventory except in the over $900,000 category, which has 10 months of inventory (45 homes), with 3 sold in that price range last month . The average days on market for that category is 251. There are a number of MLS areas showing similarly low levels of inventory, including Homewood and Fultondale.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 189 compared with last month at 185. The Used homes DOM was 125 in October vs 120 last month, (Sect A p.18). Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $305,408 from $310,805 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales price for Sold Used homes increased to $180,873 from $177,251 last month (Sect A p2). The moving average price for all homes has been up steadily for the past year. (Sect A p2).
TWB 11/13/2015

Alabama Coastal Real Estate Continues To Outperform In October

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of October 2015

Sales dollars decreased 4% in October to $119,516,690 from September $124,233,462. This is 5% better than October last year at $113,643,200 and the highest September sales total on record. (Sect A p.2). The 12 month moving average line of sales, which had continued to point up steadily for three years, except for the last part of last year and the first few months of this year, has now gotten a healthy upwards tilt. The 12 month average is close to the record levels achieved in 2006 with more homes sold, but at lower average prices. Lack of new construction now seems to be depressing sales somewhat. Inventories are trending down.

Sales in most price categories show consistent improvement. Inventories are improving, but remain high at over a year for anything over $500,000. This month the $400,000-$500,000 inventory dipped to 11 months.

In concert with ACRE, The Alabama Center for Real Estate, we have projected expectations for 2015. We use the ACRE provided data for the projections, which differs slightly from the data in this report. The projection for 2015 located here expects a unit increase of 4.75% over 2014 actual. Through October cumulative sales are running 8% ahead of the projection. For the month of October sales were 5% above the projection.

On a unit basis, sales of all houses were off 12% at 478 this month vs. last month at 543, which is 2% below last year’s healthy level of 487. There is still substantial inventory (used) available to satisfy demand.

Used Home sales decreased 11% to 411 this month vs. 461 last month, which is off 6% from last year’s 438 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 67 this month vs 82 last month and compared with 49 last year.

New listings for New homes decreased to 102 from 112 in September. Used homes New listings decreased to 652 from 699 in September with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has once again been improving. In October, there were 3,443 Active Used homes, a reduction from 4,018 in September. The New home market, which peaked in October 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 479.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 7 months of inventory in October vs. 8 in September. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 8 months of inventory in October vs. 9 in September. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in September 2008 to 8 months this October. The inventory of homes in the upper price range remains high with homes over $500,000 at over a year’s supply, but even here we are seeing improvement. I would expect to see construction begin to pick-up in the under $400,000 range, but so far have not seen it.

Average sales price for all homes has been improving modestly for the past year. For New units, prices increased to  $293,618 from $245,318 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices increased to $242,930 from $225,851 in September. The price trend is up for the year. Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in October was 177 vs last month of 164. Days On Market for Used was 143 compared to last month 147.
TWB 11/17/2015

September Birmingham Area Real Estate Sales Healthy

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for September 2015

In June the Birmingham MLS changed its base system. We have recoded the data to be consistent. Let me know if you see anything strange!

Dollar sales in September experienced a seasonal decline of 4% to $281,294,140 from August $294,134,174, off by 3% over last September’s of $290,074,074. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales has flattened. It seems to me that there has been a somewhat larger number of late reported sales which means that prior month totals are higher than what we showed last month by larger amounts than has historically been the case. It is important to view overall trend and not get hung up on the precision of the latest month’s number.

Total Unit sales were down 3% to 1,451 in September from 1,497 in August, a decrease of 46. This is even  with last September at 1455. New sales were even at 167 homes this month and 168 in August and off from 178 last year. The price pressure and low inventory levels of new homes suggests a good environment for builders. Used sales were 1,284 homes in September, down 3% from 1,329 last month, a decrease of 45, and up by 70 units or .6% from 1,277 last year (Sect E p.3).

ACRE numbers are slightly different from those we report. With ACRE, we released our 2015 forecast which can be seen here: ACRE. For August, the latest available: August sales were 8%  or 62 unit below our forecast. ACRE’s year-to-date sales forecast through August projected 9,211 closed transactions while the actual sales were 9,265 units, a cumulative variance of .6%.

Total inventory is about even this month at 10,216 vs. last month at 10,288 and about even with 10,162 last year. Active New listings decreased to 936 in September from 1,015 in August (Sect E p.3).

Housing permits were off in Jefferson County to 90 in August from 130 in July, which is up from 58 last year. Shelby County went from 65 to 28 in August, off from 31 last year. We are seeing a more significant number of multi-family construction units (which we do not formally track or report), in most markets. I am pleased to see increases in new home building.

Absorption rate for New homes is at 6 months supply this month, which is even with 6 months last year. (Sect E p.3). The New homes for the most part have normal inventory levels in the 1-7 month range depending on area and price range. The $800,000-$900,000 range has 33 months of supply, however (Sect C p.1).

Absorption for Used homes in September shows 8 months which is about even with last year. Used Active listings at 9,021 are even with last month at 9,201 and about the same as 9,157 last year (Sect E p.3). Market performance is highly area specific, so check the individual area charts. For instance, Mountain Brook has between 1 and 9 months of inventory except in the over $900,000 category, which has 10 months of inventory (46 homes), with 2 sold in that price range last month . The average days on market for that category is 214. There are a number of MLS areas showing similarly low levels of inventory, including Homewood and Fultondale.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 185 compared with last month at 173. The Used homes DOM was 120 in September vs 113 last month, (Sect A p.18). Average sales price for Sold New homes increased to $308,505 from $298,566 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales price for Sold Used homes decreased to $178,952 from $183,578 last month (Sect A p2). The moving average price for all homes has been up steadily for the past year. (Sect A p2).
TWB 10/10/2015