Alabama Coastal Real Estate for June Continues to Outperform

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of June 2017

Sales dollars decreased 5% in June to $219,531,971 from May’s outstanding $230,077,838. This is up an impressive 24% from last year’s record of $177,240,799. (Sect A p.2). The 12 month moving average line of sales is moving up substantially.

Inventories continue to drop. Check out the chart on page A-17 to fully appreciate the inventory trends. Note that there are less price range categories for inventories over a year. Now, only the $700,000 and over categories have over a year of inventory. Note that this drop in the upper price level inventories has been very substantial and sustained over the last few months.

In concert with ACRE, The Alabama Center for Real Estate, we have projected expectations for 2017. We use the ACRE provided data for the projections, which differs slightly from the data in this report. The projection for 2017 located here expects projected home sales in 2017 at 6,276, which is a 12.65% over 2016 actual of  5,571. This year through May actual sales are 3% above expectations. 2,623 sales were recorded so far this year which is ahead of the projection of 2,550.  

On a unit basis, sales of all houses were 787 this month vs. last month at 800, which is still well above last year’s healthy level of 666. Used Home sales decreased to 632 this month vs. 676 last month, which is up from last year’s 546 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 155 this month vs 124 last month and compared with 120 last year. New listings for New homes decreased to 112 from 204 in May. Used homes New listings decreased to 743 from 850 in May with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has been improving. In June, there were 2,716 Active Used homes, a reduction from 3,306 in May and a new multi year low. New homes, which peaked in June 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sit at 686.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 7 months of inventory in June vs. 9 in May. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 6 months of inventory in June vs. 7 in May. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in May 2008 to 6 months this June. I had been expecting construction to begin to pick-up in the under $400,000 range, and this has happened to a modest degree. Sales have been keeping up however, so we have not seen an increase in inventory.

Average sales price for all homes has begun to show an upwards trend. For New units, average price decreased to  $260,118 from $289,610 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices decreased this month, to $283,566 from $287,228 in May. Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in June was 176 vs last month of 206. Days On Market for Used was 138 vs. last month 133. The peak summer selling season seems to be roaring!

TWB 7/9/2017


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