Huntsville 1st Half Real Estate Sales Off 1% From Last Year

Huntsville/North Alabama Area MLS Observations: Real Estate Market June 2014

June sales improved by 5% to $162,481,363 vs. May at $154,481,617. This was off 2% from last year’s $165,588,332. This is a disappointing loss of upward momentum. The twelve month moving average line on the total dollar sales chart is roughly flat. Total unit sales were unchanged at 927 in June vs. 927 in May. This was down 4% from last year at 966. For the 1st 6 months unit sales were off 1% at 4,724 vs. last year of 4,773.

This year we are using the ACRE  data for forecasting which differs slightly from the data in this report. Our projections for the Huntsville market for 2014 are for an increase of 0.9% over the 2013 level, essentially flat with 2013. As of June, sales are down 1% from 2013.

New sales decreased at 123 this month vs. 129 last month, down 6 and compared with 168 last year.

Used sales increased to 804 this month vs. 798 last month, up 6, and compared with 798 last year (Sect E  p.3).

Inventory levels remain stubbornly high. Used inventory levels remain high this monthat12 months (see the chart Sect C p.1), with the situation continuing to be particularly challenged in the higher price ranges. Used homes over $500,000 have more than two years of inventory. New home absorption is 8 months of inventory overall, and has been climbing with 10 months last month. (E-1). The New Home inventory level in the $300,000-$500,000 is approximately 5-6 months (Not bad!).

May housing permits issued were 91 compared with 60 in April so it would appear that the builders are staying optimistic (chart on the web site).

Total Active listings decreased this month to 9,130 compared to last month’s 9,471, and lower than last year at this time at 9,509, with the reduction in the current month exaggerated due to month-end expirations. (Sect A p.4 and Sect E p.3).  Active New listings decreased to 1,182 this month from 1,392 in May, down 210. (Sect E p.3). Active Used listings decreased to 7,948 this month from 8,079 in May, off 131 and slightly below last year’s amount at this time of 8,076. (Sect E p.3).

Average Days on Market for Sold New homes was 179 vs. 236 days last month (indicates older inventory moving), with Used at 155 in June compared with 158 in May (Sect A p.18). Average sales price for Sold New homes was $250,038 vs. $240,334 last month. (Sect A p.2) Average sales price for Sold Used homes was $163,839 vs. $154,735 last month. (Sect A p.2)  The average prices seems to be have leveled out.

TWB 7/12/14

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Huntsville Real Estate Market Strengthens in April

Huntsville/North Alabama Area MLS Observations: Real Estate Market April 2014

April sales improved by 5% to $128,966,904 vs. March at $123,311,921. This was up 7% from last year’s $120,599,535. This is a better result than we saw last month hopefully pointing to more positive comparisons as the season progresses to the stronger months. The twelve month moving average line on the total dollar sales chart is roughly flat. Total unit sales improved  10% to 834 in April vs. 763 in March, an increase of 73. This was 6% better than last year at 799.

The way  ACRE and Brander Real Estate projections for 2014 are compiled has changed. This year we are using the ACRE data which differs slightly from the data in this report. I am now dependent on ACRE for the timing of data availability (for the projections only) and report release. Our projections for the Huntsville market for 2014 are for an increase of 0.9% over the 2013 level, essentially flat with 2013.

New sales remained at 143 this month vs. 143 last month, and compared with 130 last year.

Used sales increased to 691 this month vs. 620 last month, up 71, and compared with 669 last year (Sect E  p.3).

Inventory levels remain stubbornly high. Used inventory levels remain high this monthat11 months (see the chart Sect C p.1), with the situation continuing to be particularly challenged in the higher price ranges. Used homes over $500,000 have more than two years of inventory. New home absorption is 8 months of inventory overall, and this has been climbing with 10 months last month. (E-1). The New Home inventory level in the $300,000-$500,000 is approximately 5-6 months (Not bad!).

March housing permits issued were 91 compared with 60 in February (chart on the web site).

Total Active listings decreased this month to 8,864 compared to last month’s 9,027, and lower than last year at this time at 9,290, with the reduction in the current month exaggerated due to month-end expirations. (Sect A p.4 and Sect E p.3).  Active New listings decreased to 1,191 this month from 1,406 in March, down 215. (Sect E p.3). Active Used listings increased to 7,673 this month from 7,621 in March, up 52 and slightly below last year’s amount at this time of 7,796. (Sect E p.3).

Average Days on Market for Sold New homes was 181 vs. 179 days last month, with Used at 165 in April compared with 163 in March (Sect A p.18). Average sales price for Sold New homes was $229,274 vs. $240,802 last month. (Sect A p.2) Average sales price for Sold Used homes was $139,191 vs. $143,350 last month. (Sect A p.2) The average price line for Used homes is headed modestly down. The New home average price seems to be showing positive direction.

TWB 5/11/14

Huntsville Real Estate Off To A Slow Spring Start – March

Huntsville/North Alabama Area MLS Observations: Real Estate Market March 2014

March sales improved by 18% to $119,454,774 vs. February at $101,343,374. This was off 3% from last year’s $122,589,755. This is a lesser year to year decline than we saw last month hopefully pointing to more positive comparisons as the season progresses to the stronger months. The twelve month moving average line on the total dollar sales chart has turned slightly down. Total unit sales improved  11% to 740 in March vs. 667 in February, an increase of 73. This was 7% lower than last year at 797.

The way  ACRE and Brander Real Estate projections for 2014 are compiled has changed. This year we are using the ACRE data which differs slightly from the data in this report. I am now dependent on ACRE for the timing of data availability (for the projections only) and report release. Our projections for the Huntsville market for 2014 are for an increase of 0.9% over the 2013 level, essentially flat with 2013.

New sales increased to 130 this month vs. 117 last month, up 13 and compared with 145 last year.

Used sales increased to 610 this month vs. 550 last month, up 60, and compared with 652 last year (Sect E  p.3).

Inventory levels remain stubbornly high. Used inventory levels remain high this monthat11 months (see the chart Sect C p.1), with the situation continuing to be particularly challenged in the higher price ranges. Used homes over $500,000 have more than two years of inventory. New home absorption is 8 months of inventory overall, and this has been climbing, 10 months last month. (E-1). The New Home inventory level in the $300,000-$500,000 is approximately 5-6 months (Not bad!).

February housing permits issued were 66 compared with 40 in January (chart on the web site).

Total Active listings decreased this month to 8,444 compared to last month’s 8,572, and lower than last year at this time at 8,981, with the reduction in the current month exaggerated due to month-end expirations. (Sect A p.4 and Sect E p.3).  Active New listings decreased to 1,172 this month from 1,435 in February, down 263. (Sect E p.3). Active Used listings decreased to 7,272 this month from 7,317 in February, down 45 and slightly below last year’s amount at this time of 7,487. (Sect E p.3).

Average Days on Market for Sold New homes was 179 vs. 206 days last month, with Used at 163 in March compared with 175 in February (Sect A p.18). Average sales price for Sold New homes was $245,360 vs. $237,398 last month. (Sect A p.2) Average sales price for Sold Used homes was $143,540 vs. $133,760 last month. (Sect A p.2) The average price line for Used homes is headed modestly down. The New home average price seems to be showing positive direction.

TWB 4/12/14

North Alabama/Huntsville Real Estate Market Off to a Slow Start in February

Huntsville/North Alabama Area MLS Observations: Real Estate Market February 2014

February sales improved by 13% to $94,049,657 vs. January at $83,222,776. This was off 15%
from last year’s $110,841,443. This is a bigger year to year decline than we saw last month.
The twelve month moving average line on the total dollar sales chart has turned slightly down. This month’s results were again somewhat lower than expectations. Hopefully, sales will improve with the upcoming spring season.

Total unit sales improved 9% to 621 in February vs. 568 in January, a increase of 53. This was 11% lower than last year at 698. I expect that sales should return to more normal levels as the weather improves.

I have changed the way ACRE and Brander Real Estate projections for 2014 are compiled. This year we are using the ACRE data which differs slightly from the data in this report. I am now dependent on ACRE for the timing of data availability (for the projections only) and report release. Our projections for the Huntsville market for 2014 are for an increase of 0.9% over the 2013 level, essentially flat with 2013.

New sales increased to 90 this month vs. 83 last month, up 7 and compared with 150 last year. Used sales increased to 531 this month vs. 485 last month, up 46, and compared with 548 last year (Sect E p.3). Inventory levels remain stubbornly high.

Used inventory levels remain high this month at 10 months (see the chart Sect C p.1), with the situation continuing to be particularly challenged in the higher price ranges. Used homes over $500,000 have more than two years of inventory. New home absorption is 9 months of inventory overall, and this has been climbing (E­1). The New Home inventory level in the $300,000­-$500,000 is approximately 5­-6 months (Not bad!).

January housing permits issued were 66 compared with 40 in December (chart on the web site).

Total Active listings decreased this month to 8,251 compared to last month’s 8,667, and about even with last year at this time at 8,586, with the reduction in the current month exaggerated due to month­ end expirations. (Sect A p.4 and Sect E p.3). Active New listings decreased to 1,228 this month from 1,510 in January, down 282. (Sect E p.3). Active Used listings decreased to 7,023 this month from 7,157 in January, down 134 and slightly below last year’s amount at this time of 7,185. (Sect E p.3).

Average Days on Market for Sold New homes was 206 vs. 174 days last month, with Used at 175 in February compared with 150 in January (Sect A p.18). Average sales price for Sold New homes was $249,100 vs. $235,258 last month. (Sect A p.2) Average sales price for Sold Used homes was $134,898 vs. $131,333 last month. (Sect A p.2) The average price line for Used homes is headed modestly down. The New home average price seems to be showing positive direction.

TWB 3/9/14

1st Quarter Alabama Residential Real Estate Outlook Positive

I’m a bit late putting this up and in fact the next survey is underway! The ACRE report archive can be found here.

1. 1st Quarter Alabama Residential Real Estate Outlook Positive

This survey projects expectations for the 1st quarter of 2014. The scale ranges from 0-100 with 0 being much worse, 100 being much better, and 50 indicating no change expected.
The professional real estate community has a very optimistic outlook for 2014. All of the overall indicators are at the highest 1st quarter levels we have seen since beginning of the survey in 2010. All of the indicators improved from last quarter and remain at or above 50 indicating expansion expected, except for credit. The availability of credit continues to be viewed somewhat negatively, at 49, two points better than last quarter.

1.1 Overview Scores:

This quarter showed improvement in all regions for residential markets. In addition, the commercial indicators are in a clear uptrend. This is encouraging, and overall measures remain in the expansion zone.
The below chart reflects the aggregate scores for the survey overall. The overall total stat score is in bold blue.

Survey Analysis Overall

1.2 Commercial Market:

Commercial market participants, (the majority of the respondents are from the Birmingham market area), remained positive this quarter (Total Stat) at 58 this quarter a two point improvement from last quarter and improving 7 points to an all time high of 61 for sales expectations. Price expectations improved 3 points to 56 indicating improving pricing conditions. The score for credit availability is at a new high of 56, up 3 from last quarter.

Survey Analysis-Commercial Market

1.3 Regional Results:

The coastal region continued to remain the most optimistic in the state at 61 (Alabama expectations), up from 58 last quarter. On an overall basis all areas sales expectations remained above 50. The coastal region, also had the highest sales expectations at 62. The moving average line is the prior 4 quarters averaged of the Alabama expectations, to remove the effects of seasonality, and it is easy to see the pretty steady upwards trend.

Regional Total scores chart:

Survey Analysis-Regional Overview

The charts below also have a “moving average” line which averages the “Total Stat” for prior 4 quarters, by area, to smooth out the seasonal variations. The quarter to quarter variation is highly seasonal, but the moving average shows a better picture of the overall trend, which is quite positive.

Survey Analysis-North

Survey analysis-NorthCentral

Survey Analysis-South Central

Survey Analysis-South Coastal

1.4 North

North Alabama total score improved 6 points from last quarter to 53, also 6 points better than last year’s 4th quarter.
The sales outlook improved to 59 from 48 last quarter, but with price expecatations also climbing to 50.

1.5 North Central

The North Central Region overall score climbed to 55 from 53. The sales score improved to 59 from 54. Inventory score climbed to 53 from 51, with pricing remaining at 55, and credit availability slipping one point to at 48.

1.6 South Central

The South Central Region overall score improved to 53 from 49 last quarter. The outlook for sales improved to 57 from 51.

1.7 South

The Southern Region overall score was the highest at 58. This sales score is the highest at 62. Price expectations declined by 5 to 56. Credit availability was 54 the first time we have seen it above 50.

About the Alabama Real Estate Confidence Index and Survey:

About 400 professionals responded to the 4th quarter 2013 survey which was conducted during the month of December 2013. The survey, conducted by the Alabama Center For Real Estate has the largest participation of any real estate survey. It provides important market insights. Full history and raw scores can be obtained by contacting the undersigned.

The ACRE Leadership Council  determined the need for a statewide industry confidence index and this was adopted as the Council’s first initiative. Tom Brander, Council Member, was selected by the Council and Grayson Glaze, ACRE Executive Director, to spearhead and work with the Center to conduct and produce its Alabama Real Estate Confidence Index (ARECI). The Council appreciates everyone who participated.

For further information contact Tom Brander at Tombrander@tombrander.com or Grayson Glaze at gglaze@cba.ua.edu

2014 Alabama Residential Real Estate Forecast

Summary:

Two years ago, ABRE Analytics, a collaborative research partnership consisting of the Alabama Center for Real Estate (ACRE) and Tom Brander, began to attempt to identify correlations with select economic indicators and historical sales data that could possibly shed light and assist with providing future real estate sales projections in selected markets across the State of Alabama.

In 2013, our sales forecast for Alabama fell within the margin of error – just 3.3 percent short of actual closed transactions. These projection results were an improvement from our inaugural 2012 forecast that also underestimated sales by 6.0 percent, but still well within the margin of error. For the first time after two-years of trial and error, we are also providing the 2014 sales forecast for each of the 25 associations that report data to the Center each month.

The projections for 2014 are based on using the last quarter’s actual sales (in 2013) and linear regression against full year sales, with as much history as we have in our database.

We have anywhere from 5 to 10 years of historical data depending on the area. The areas are quite different in total annual volume, ranging from under 100 sales per year to over 40,000 sales per year. Generally, the more annual sales and the greater history we have the greater projection accuracy we expect.

The initial correlations that we have found, supporting the concept used in the projections, range from 93%, best to a low of 33%. To some degree the correlation percentages may be indicative of future forecast accuracy.

In short, the larger the market the more likely the projections will be more accurate. This is due to both the law of large numbers and the momentum of larger markets. Using the last quarter of the prior year, we believe is the most relevant and timely data to project the following year. To the extent that an event happens during the year this approach to forecasting would not project that possibility (up or down).

Some areas and time periods have ”adjustments” applied to history to normalize the numbers. Examples include the tax credit in 2009 that pulled sales into 2009 and out of 2010. We also see limited data in particular for Baldwin county. Certain areas have ”unusual” events, such as plant closing or openings as well as major weather events that may distort historical data and certainly could happen in the future.

We think the projections have value, if for no other reason than to see if the year is unfolding as predicted or if variances emerge that should be investigated. So, please take these projections as our best efforts, but do your own work.

Statewide full year summary:

Statewide projected 2014 = 45,318, 5.0% over 2013 actual of = 43,160
Athens projected 2014 = 854, -2.95% over 2013 actual of = 880
Baldwin projected 2014 = 6,666, 47.74% over 2013 actual of = 4,512
Baldwin Condos projected 2014 = 2,052, 41.52% over 2013 actual of = 1,450
Birmingham projected 2014 = 12,845, 8.17% over 2013 actual of = 11,875
Calhoun County projected 2014 = 1,134, 4.52% over 2013 actual of = 1,085
Cherokee County projected 2014 = 135, -8.16% over 2013 actual of = 147
Covington projected 2014 = 253, 11.45% over 2013 actual of = 227
Cullman projected 2014 = 674, 6.14% over 2013 actual of = 635
Dothan projected 2014 = 1,039, 2.47% over 2013 actual of = 1,014
Gadsden projected 2014 = 681, 5.91% over 2013 actual of = 643
Huntsville projected 2014 = 5,219, 0.87% over 2013 actual of = 5,174
Jackson County projected 2014 = 163, -3.55% over 2013 actual of = 169
Lake Martin projected 2014 = 453, 3.66% over 2013 actual of = 437
Lee County projected 2014 = 1,345, 5.08% over 2013 actual of = 1,280
Marshall County projected 2014 = 773, 5.46% over 2013 actual of = 733
Mobile projected 2014 = 3,937, 2.79% over 2013 actual of = 3,830
Monroe County projected 2014 = 83, 7.79% over 2013 actual of = 77
Montgomery projected 2014 = 3,747, 5.11% over 2013 actual of = 3,565
Morgan County projected 2014 = 1,149, -3.04% over 2013 actual of = 1,185
Muscle Shoals projected 2014 = 1,419, -1.8% over 2013 actual of = 1,445
Phenix City projected 2014 = 951, 2.81% over 2013 actual of = 925
Selma projected 2014 = 143, 4.38% over 2013 actual of = 137
Talladega County projected 2014 = 150, -16.67% over 2013 actual of = 180
Tuscaloosa projected 2014 = 2,001, 4.22% over 2013 actual of = 1,920
Walker County projected 2014 = 335, 15.92% over 2013 actual of = 289
Wiregrass projected 2014 = 839, 5.4% over 2013 actual of = 796

Sample monthly area forecast charts (will have Projection to actual as data becomes available)

Monthly sample charts

Full year projections with history:

This is useful to see how variable the history has been and how the forecasted linear regression tracks.

Group 1 charts

Group 2 charts

group 3 charts

January North Alabama Sales Off To A Slow Start

Huntsville/North Alabama Area MLS Observations: Real Estate Market January 2014

January sales declined by 34% to $79,903,130 vs. December at $121,842,236. This was off 9% from last year’s $88,136,964. The twelve month moving average line on the total dollar sales chart has turned flat and slightly down. This month’s results were somewhat lower than expectations. Total unit sales declined 4% to 545 in January vs. 703 in December, a decrease of 158. This was lower than last year at 571. I expect that sales should return to more normal levels as the year progresses.

New sales decreased to 75 this month vs. 143 last month, off 68.

Used sales decreased to 469 this month vs. 556 last month, off 87 (Sect E  p.3).

Inventory levels remain stubbornly high. Used inventory levels remain high this month at 10 months (see the chart Sect C p.1), with the situation continuing to be particularly challenged in the higher price ranges. Used homes over $500,000 have more than two years of inventory. New home absorption is 9 months of inventory overall, and this has been climbing)(E-1). The New Home inventory level in the $300,000-$500,000 is approximately 5-6 months. (Not bad!).

December housing permits issued were 40 compared with 48 in November (chart on the web site). This is the lowest level of starts since January 2009 (44).

Total Active listings decreased this month to 8,131 compared to last month’s 8,712, and about even with last year at this time at 8,280, with the reduction in the current month exaggerated due to month-end expirations. (Sect A p.4 and Sect E p.3).  Active New listings decreased to 1,286 this month from 1,509 in December, down 223. (Sect E p.3). Active Used listings decreased to 6,845 this month from 7,203 in December, down 358 and slightly below last year’s amount at this time of 6,891. (Sect E p.3).

Average Days on Market for Sold New homes was 174 vs. 159 days last month, with Used at 150 in January compared with 157 in December (Sect A p.18). Average sales price for Sold New homes was $235,167 vs. $254,331 last month. (Sect A p.2) Average sales price for Sold Used homes was $132,480 vs. $152,448 last month. (Sect A p.2) The average price line for Used homes is headed modestly down. New home average prices seems to be showing positive direction.

TWB 2/9/14

Huntsville, North Alabama December Real Estate Up 7% From November

Huntsville/North Alabama Area MLS Observations: Real Estate Market December 2013

December sales improved by 7% to $116,699,993 vs. November at $109,284,134. This was off 1% from last year’s $118,295,733. The twelve month moving average line on the total dollar sales chart has turned flat and slightly down. This month’s results were somewhat lower than expectations ( but, within 4%). Total unit sales declined 4% to 677 in December vs. 704 in November, a decrease of 27. This was about even with last year at 673.

	Total $	%chg	Total Units	%chg	New Units	%chg	Used units	%chg
2012	1,499,410,113		9,196		1,738		7,458
2013	1,596,928,627	7%	9,722	6%	1,729	-1%	7,993	7%

Projections from  ACRE and Brander Real Estate for 2013 called for 708 sales in December with actual results 4% under that, and year to date volume at 1% lower than projection. Click here http://goo.gl/nytW8 for an article summarizing our projections. Here is the spreadsheet with month by month projections by area:  http://goo.gl/GEYWa (see the tabs on the bottom). When late sales are reported next month we will probably end up within ½% or so. My preliminary work on next year’s projections is, as yet, indeterminate.

Huntsville Projection to Actual

New sales increased to 133 this month vs. 122 last month, off 11.

Used sales decreased to 544 this month vs. 582 last month, off 38 (Sect E  p.3).

Inventory levels remain stubbornly high. Used inventory levels remain high this month at 10 months (see the chart Sect C p.1), with the situation continuing to be particularly challenged in the higher price ranges. Used homes over $400,000 have more than two years of inventory. Looking at the overall absorption chart (Sect C p1) it appears that used home inventories (in units) are approaching historical highs. New home absorption is 9 months of inventory overall, and this has been climbing)(E-1). The New Home inventory level in the $300,000-$500,000 is approximately 5-6 months. (Not bad!). August housing permits issued were 48 in November compared with 85 in October (chart on the web site). This is the lowest level of starts in some time.

Total Active listings decreased this month to 8,266 compared to last month’s 9,111, and about even with last year at this time at 8,263, with the reduction in the current month exaggerated due to month-end expirations. (Sect A p.4 and Sect E p.3).  Active New listings decreased to 1,348 this month from 1,535 in November, down 187. (Sect E p.3). Active Used listings decreased to 6,918 this month from 7,576 in November, down 658 and slightly above last year’s amount at this time of 6,887. (Sect E p.3).

Average Days on Market for Sold New homes was 159 vs. 157 days last month, with Used at 157 in December compared with 151 in November (Sect A p.18). Average sales price for Sold New homes was $253,017 vs. $250,445 last month. (Sect A p.2) Average sales price for Sold Used homes was $152,663 vs. $135,275 last month. (Sect A p.2) The average price line for Used homes is going up. New home average prices seems to be showing positive direction as well.

TWB 1/11/14

Huntsville November Residental Sales Slower Than Last Year

Huntsville/North Alabama Area MLS Observations: Real Estate Market November 2013

Huntsville Nov Projection to Actual

November sales declined by 16% to $106,952,847 vs. October at $127,291,004. This was off 12% from last year’s $121,727,839. The twelve month moving average line on the total dollar sales chart is heading up. This month’s results were somewhat lower than expectations ( but, within 6%).

Total unit sales declined 13% to 691 in November vs. 796 in October, a decrease of 105. This was 4% lower than last year at 722.

Our projections for ACRE and Brander Real Estate for 2013 called for 734 sales in November with actual results 6% under that, and year to date volume is 1% lower than our projection. See here http://goo.gl/nytW8 for an article sumarizing the projections. Here is the spreadsheet with month by month projections by area http://goo.gl/GEYWa (see the tabs on the bottom). My preliminary work on next year’s projections is, as yet, indeterminate.

New sales increased to 120 this month vs. 143 last month, off 23.

Used sales decreased to 571 this month vs. 653 last month, off 82 (Sect E  p.3).

Inventory levels remain stubbornly high. Used inventory levels remain high this month at 11 months (see the chart Sect C p.1), with the situation continuing to be particularly challenged in the higher price ranges. Used homes over $400,000 have more than two years of inventory. Looking at the overall absorption chart (Sect C p1) it appears that used home inventories (in units) are approaching historical highs.

New home absorption is 9 months of inventory overall, and this has been climbing)(E-1). The New Home inventory level in the $300,000-$500,000 is approximately 5-6 months. (Not bad!).

August housing permits issued were 85 in October compared with 91 in September (chart on the web site). Note that the census dept has caught up from the shutdown.

Total Active listings decreased this month to 9,185 compared to last month’s 9,371, and above last year at this time at 8,437, with the reduction in the current month exaggerated due to month-end expirations. (Sect A p.4 and Sect E p.3).

Active New listings decreased to 1,359 this month from 1,543 in October, down 184. (Sect E p.3). Active Used listings decreased to 7,286 this month from 7,828 in October, down 542 and slightly above last year’s amount at this time of 7,167. (Sect E p.3).

Average Days on Market for Sold New homes was 157 vs. 155 days last month, with Used at 151 in November compared with 155 in October (Sect A p.18).

Average sales price for Sold New homes was $249,369 vs. $254,401 last month. (Sect A p.2)

Average sales price for Sold Used homes was $134,901 vs. $139,222 last month. (Sect A p.2)

The average price line for Used homes is going up. New home average prices seems to be showing positive direction as well.

TWB 12/14/13

Huntsville Area Real Estate September Results In-Line With Expectations

Huntsville/North Alabama Area MLS Observations: Real Estate Market September 2013

September sales declined by 12% to $139,568,716 vs. August at $159,339,428. This was up 16% from last year’s $120,579,612. The twelve month moving average line on the total dollar sales chart is heading up. This months’ results were in-line with expectations (within 3%).

Total unit sales declined 15% to 816 in September vs. 961 in August, a decrease of 145. This was 10% higher than last year at 740. (it is worth noting that we again had a larger number of past month’s reported sales than usual, resulting in changes in historical adjustments).

Our projections for ACRE and Brander Real Estate for 2013 called for 938 sales in September with actual results 3% under that, and year to date volume is 0.8% lower than our projection. See here http://goo.gl/nytW8 for an article sumarizing the projections. Here is the spreadsheet with month by month projections by area http://goo.gl/GEYWa (see the tabs on the bottom).

New sales decreased to 135 this month vs. 165 last month, down 30.

Used sales decreased to 681 this month vs. 796 last month, off 115 (Sect E  p.3).

In-spite of increased sales, inventory levels remain stubbornly high. Used inventory levels remain high this month at 11 months (see the chart Sect C p.1), with the situation continuing to be particularly challenged in the higher price ranges. Used homes over $400,000 have more than two years of inventory. Looking at the overall absorption chart (Sect C p1) it appears that used home inventories (in units) are approaching the historical highs, although the months of inventory is not quite as concerning due to the increased sales level.

New home absorption is 9 months of inventory overall, and this has been climbing)(E-1). The New Home inventory level in the $300,000-$500,000 is approximately 5-6 months. (Not bad!).

Due to the Government shutdown we cannot report on number of housing permits issued (chart on the web site).

Total Active listings decreased this month to 8,838 compared to last month’s 9,424, and below last year at this time at 8,935, with the reduction exaggerated due to month-end expirations. (Sect A p.4 and Sect E p.3).

Active New listings decreased from 1,410 last month to 1,284 in September, down 126. (Sect E p.3). Active Used listings decreased from 8,014 last month to 7,554 this month, down 46 and slightly below last year’s amount at this time of 7,647. (Sect E p.3).

Average Days on Market for Sold New homes was 141 vs. 144 days last month, with Used at 156 in September compared with 144 in August (Sect A p.18).

Average sales price for Sold New homes was $246,938 vs. $246,904 last month. (Sect A p.2)

Average sales price for Sold Used homes was $155,994 vs. $148,995 last month. (Sect A p.2)

The average price line for Used homes is going up. New home average prices seems to be showing positive direction as well.

TWB 10/13/13