Category Archives: Inventory

Birmingham Area Sales Slightly Cooler In July

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for July 2017

Sales were lower both in units and dollars than last year, which was very robust.  Average prices are mostly flat. Total dollar sales for July were $361,764,378, off 5% from $380,693,280 last year, and off 15% from last month of $424,501,685. The market is cooling modestly from last years’ torrid pace.

Total Unit sales were down 8% at 1,637 in July from 1,765 last year and off by 13% compared with 1,891 in June. New sales were down 43 at 132 homes this month, vs. 175 in June, and off by 73 from 205 last year. The low inventory level of new homes suggests a good environment for builders. Used sales were 1,505 homes in July, off 12% from 1,716 last month, and off by 3% from 1,560 last year (Sect E p.3).

ACRE numbers are slightly different from those we report. For ACRE, our month by month 2017 forecast can be seen here: ACRE. For Birmingham, the full year projection for 2017 = 15,238, a 3.6% difference from 2016 actual of 14,705. The cumulative error thru June is minus .6% for the year; that is actuals of 7,554 are behind projections of 7,559. There is a cumulative error on projections of 5 units. Check the link for details when the July numbers are posted.

Total inventory is slightly higher this month at 8,497 vs. last month at 8,155 and less than 9,510 last year. (Sect C p.1). Active New listings decreased to 1,068 in July from 1,081 in June (Sect E p.3). Absorption rate for New homes is at 6 months supply this month, which is less than 7 months last year. (Sect E p.3). New homes have normal inventory levels in the 4-8 month range depending on area and price range (Sect C p.1).

Absorption for Used homes in July shows 5 months, which is lower than 6 last year. Used Active listings at 7,429 are up from last month of 7,074, but less than 8,383 last year (Sect E p.3). Inventory levels have continued to trend down from prior years. A notable exception is however, the over $900,000 price range which has trended up a bit. Market performance is highly area specific, so check the individual area charts. For instance, Mountain Brook has between 1 and 6 months of inventory (except the over $900,000 range with 7 months, 45 units) and 4 months overall. There are a number of MLS areas, particularly those known as the “over the mountain” communities, showing similarly low levels, including Homewood, which has 3 months of inventory.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 217 compared with last month at 204. The Used homes DOM was 102 in July vs 99 last month, (Sect A p.18). Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $287,138 from $297,375 last month (Sect A p2). Over a several month period, prices seem to be relatively unchanged. Average sales price for Sold Used was $215,191 this month compared to $217,052 last month. (Sect A p2). Given the general robustness of sales and low inventory levels, prices on average seem quite stable.

TWB 8/13/2017  

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Baldwin County Sales 2017 In July Up A Remarkable 34% From 2016

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of July 2017

Sales decreased 7% in July to $206,527,230 from June’s outstanding $222,618,471. This is up an impressive 34% from last year’s record of $154,395,353. (Sect A p.2). The 12 month moving average line of sales is headed up substantially. This month’s totals were driven to a large degree by a number of higher end New unit sales in Perdido Key; 14 over $900,000 along with 12 in the $800,000- $900,000 price range.

Inventories continue to drop. Check out the chart on page A-17 to fully appreciate the trend. Note that there are less price range categories for inventories over a year. Now, only the $700,000 and over categories have over a year of inventory. This drop in the upper price level inventories has been very substantial and sustained over the last few months.

In concert with ACRE, The Alabama Center for Real Estate, we have projected expectations for 2017. We use the ACRE provided data for the projections, which differs slightly from the data in this report. The projection for 2017 located here expects projected home sales in 2017 at 6,276, which is a 12.65% over 2016 actual of  5,571. This year through June actual sales are 4% above expectations. 3,312 sales were recorded so far this year which is ahead of the projection of 3,171 by 141 units.  

On a unit basis, sales of all houses were 693 this month vs. last month at 794, which is still well above last year’s healthy level of 627. Used Home sales decreased to 514 this month vs. 639 last month, which is up from last year’s 524 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 179 this month vs 155 last month and compared with 103 last year. New listings for New homes increased to 177 from 125 in June. Used homes New listings decreased to 514 from 639 in June with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has been improving. In July, there were 2,787 Active Used homes, a reduction from 3,330 in June and a new multi year low. New homes, which peaked in July 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sit at 723, and that number has been gradually increasing.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 6 months of inventory in July vs. 9 in June and 11 months last year. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 6 months of inventory in July vs. 7 in June. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in June 2008 to 6 months this July. I had been expecting construction to begin to pick-up in the under $400,000 range, and this has happened to a modest degree.

Average sales price for all homes has begun to show an upwards trend. For New units, average price jumped to  $444,082 from $260,118 last month (see the 1st paragraph). (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices decreased this month, to $247,153 from $285,290 in June. Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in July was 389 vs last month of 176 (due to the aforementioned high priced properties having sold). Days On Market for Used was 125 vs. last month 138. The peak summer selling season seems to be roaring!

TWB 8/13/2017

Birmingham Area Real Estate Sales in June Remain Robust

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for June 2017

June saw a reduction of 23% in dollar sales from May. Sales were lower both in units and dollars than last year, which was very robust.  Average prices are mostly flat. Total dollar sales for June were $400,193,493, off 5% from $421,620,788 last year, and off 7% from last month of $430,630,025.

Total Unit sales were down 4% at 1,774 in June from 1,841 last year and off by 8% compared with 1,924 in May. New sales were down 12 at 157 homes this month, vs. 169 in May, and off by 13 from 170 last year. The low inventory level of new homes suggests a good environment for builders. Used sales were 1,617 homes in June, off 8% from 1,755 last month, and off by 3% from 1,671 last year (Sect E p.3).

ACRE numbers are slightly different from those we report. For ACRE, our month by month 2017 forecast can be seen here: ACRE. For Birmingham, the full year projection for 2017 = 15,238, a 3.6% difference from 2016 actual of 14,705. The cumulative error is minus .5% for the year; that is actuals are behind projections of 6,033 through May and at 6,002 actual thru May. Check the link to see when the June numbers are posted..

Total inventory is slightly higher this month at 8,821 vs. last month at 8,261 and less than 9,521 last year. (Sect C p.1). Active New listings increased to 1,052 in June from 1,039 in May (Sect E p.3). Absorption rate for New homes is at 6 months supply this month, which is less than 7 months last year. (Sect E p.3). New homes have normal inventory levels in the 4-8 month range depending on area and price range (Sect C p.1).

Absorption for Used homes in June shows 6 months, which is even with 6 last year. Used Active listings at 7,769 are up from last month of 7,222, but less than 8,400 last year (Sect E p.3). Inventory levels have continued to trend down from prior years. Market performance is highly area specific, so check the individual area charts. For instance, Mountain Brook has between 1 and 6 months of inventory and 4 months overall. There are a number of MLS areas, particularly those known as the “over the mountain” communities, showing similarly low levels, including Homewood, which has 3 months of inventory.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 204 compared with last month at 205. The Used homes DOM was 99 in June vs 107 last month, (Sect A p.18). Average sales price for Sold New homes increased to $303,506 from $302,028 last month (Sect A p2). Over a several month period, prices seem to be quite unchanged. Average sales price for Sold Used was $218,023 this month compared to $216,289 last month. (Sect A p2). Given the general robustness of sales and low inventory levels, prices on average seem quite stable, not yet increasing by much.

TWB 7/9/2017

Birmingham May Real Estate Sales Resume Upswing

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for May 2017

May saw a substantial increase (23%) in dollar sales from April. Sales were slightly lower in units and slightly higher in dollars than last year, which was very robust. The next few months should show us a more consistent pattern.  Prices are modestly increasing. Total dollar sales for May were $421,269,944 up 3% from $409,254,772 last year, and up 23% from last month at $342,710,819.

Total Unit sales were down 4% at 1,857 in May from 1,943 last year and off by 17% compared with 1,585 in April. New sales were down 17 at 163 homes this month, vs. 180 in April, and off by 13 from 176  last year. The low inventory level of new homes suggests a good environment for builders. Used sales were 1,694 homes in May, up 21% from 1,404 last month, and off by 4% from 1,767 last year (Sect E p.3).

ACRE numbers are slightly different from those we report. For ACRE, our month by month 2017 forecast can be seen here: ACRE. For Birmingham, the full year projection for 2017 = 15,238, a 3.6% difference from 2016 actual of 14,705. The cumulative error is minus 2% for the year; that is actuals are behind projections of 4,451 through April, at 4,440 actual thru April. Check the link to see when the May numbers are posted.

Total inventory is slightly higher this month at 8,635 vs. last month at 8,126 and less than 9,407 last year. (Sect C p.1). Active New listings decreased to 999 in May from 1,033 in April (Sect E p.3). Absorption rate for New homes is at 6 months supply this month, which is less than 7 months last year. (Sect E p.3). The New homes have normal inventory levels in the 4-8 month range depending on area and price range. (Sect C p.1).

Absorption for Used homes in May shows 5 months, which is less than the 6 last year. Used Active listings at 7,636 are up from last month of 7,093, and less than 8,252 last year (Sect E p.3). Inventory levels have continued to trend down from prior years. Market performance is highly area specific, so check the individual area charts. For instance, Mountain Brook has between 1 and 6 months of inventory, 4 months overall. There are a number of MLS areas, particularly those known as the “over the mountain” communities, showing similarly low levels, including Homewood, which has 3 months of inventory.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 205 compared with last month at 198. The Used homes DOM was 107 in May vs 104 last month, (Sect A p.18). Average sales price for Sold New homes increased to $305,046 from $285,446 last month (Sect A p2). Over a several month period prices seem to be quite unchanged. Average sales price for Sold Used was $219,331 this month compared to $207,297 last month. (Sect A p2). Given the general robustness of sales prices on average seem quite stable, not yet increasing by much.

After a brief pause last month sales seem to be back on the upswing, It will be interesting to see how sales unfold over the next few months..

TWB 6/11/2017  

Birmingham Area Sales Accelerate In March

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for March 2017

Mar2017BHAMindexed

March saw an acceleration of the uptick in dollar and unit sales over last year.  Prices seem to be modestly increasing. Total dollar sales for March were $335,608,193 up 15% from $291,558,899 last year, and up 40% from last month at $239,312,908.

Total Unit sales were up 6% at 1,629 in March from 1,530 last year and up by 35% compared with 1,204 in February. New sales were off at 150 homes this month, vs. 155 in February, and off by 30 from 175 last year. The low inventory level of new homes suggests a good environment for builders, and prices have begun to show a more solid uptrend. Used sales were 1,479 homes in March, up 41% from 1,049 last month, and up by 9% from 1,355 last year (Sect E p.3).

ACRE numbers are slightly different from those we report. For ACRE, our month by month 2017 forecast can be seen here: ACRE. For Birmingham, the full year projection for 2017 = 15,238, a 3.6% difference from 2016 actual of 14,705. The cumulative error is minus 1% for the year; that is actuals are behind projections of 3,200 through March, at 3,162 actual thru March.

Total inventory is slightly higher this month at 8,150 vs. last month at 7,851 and less than 9,313 last year. (Sect C p.1). Active New listings decreased to 997 in March from 1,067 in February (Sect E p.3). Absorption rate for New homes is at 6 months supply this month, which is less than 7 months last year. (Sect E p.3). The New homes have normal inventory levels in the 4-8 month range depending on area and price range. (Sect C p.1).

Absorption for Used homes in March shows 5 months, which is less than the 6 last year. Used Active listings at 7,153 are up from last month of 6,784, and less than 8,228 last year (Sect E p.3). Inventory levels have continued to trend down from prior years. Market performance is highly area specific, so check the individual area charts. For instance, Mountain Brook has between 1 and 6 months of inventory, 4 months overall, except in the $5-$600,000 and over $900,000 category, which each have 6 months of inventory. In the over $900,000 price range there were 40 homes, with 9 sold in that price range last month. There are a number of MLS areas, particularly those known as the “over the mountain” communities, showing similarly low levels, including Homewood, which has 4 months of inventory.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 239 compared with last month at 197. The Used homes DOM was 115 in March vs 125 last month, (Sect A p.18). Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $276,271 from $288,821 last month (Sect A p2). Over a several month period prices seem to be increasing. Average sales price for Sold Used was $198,896 this month compared to $185,458 last month. (Sect A p2).

All in all, the market continues to look quite healthy.
TWB 4/12/2017  

Birmingham February 2017 Real Estate Sales Remain Robust

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for February 2017

February saw a continuation of the pick up in dollar sales over last year, while unit sales slowed slightly from last years’ level. Prices seem to be modestly increasing. Total dollar sales for February were $229,699,200 up 5% from $218,749,074 last year, and up 8% from last month at $212,676,683.

Total Unit sales were up 9% at 1,154 in February from 1,059 in January, an increase of 95. This is off by 3% and 35 from last February at 1,189. New sales were up to 145 homes this month, and 125 in January, and up by 3 from 141 last year. The low inventory level of new homes suggests a good environment for builders, and prices have begun to show a more solid uptrend. Used sales were 1,009 homes in February, up 8% from 934 last month, an increase of 75, off by 39 units  from 1,048 last year (Sect E p.3).

ACRE numbers are slightly different from those we report. For ACRE, we released our month by month 2017 forecast which can be seen here: ACRE. For Birmingham, the full year projection for 2017 = 15,238, a 3.6% difference from 2016 actual of 14,705. The cumulative error is minus 4% for the year; that is actuals are behind projections of 868 through January, at 834 actual in January which is still an increase of 8% over 771 in January 2016.

Total inventory is slightly higher this month at 8,168 vs. last month at 7,777 and less than 9,026 last year. (Sect C p.1). Active New listings increased to 1,025 in February from 1,001 in January (Sect E p.3). Absorption rate for New homes is at 6 months supply this month, which is less than 7 months last year. (Sect E p.3). The New homes have normal inventory levels in the 4-8 month range depending on area and price range. (Sect C p.1).

Absorption for Used homes in February shows 5 months, which is less than the 6 last year. Used Active listings at 7,143 are up from last month of 6,776, and less than 7,919 last year (Sect E p.3). Inventory levels have continued to trend down from prior years. Market performance is highly area specific, so check the individual area charts. For instance, Mountain Brook has between 1 and 4 months of inventory, 3 months overall, except in the over $900,000 category, which has 5 months of inventory (31 homes), with 8 sold in that price range last month. There are a number of MLS areas, particularly those known as the “over the mountain” communities, showing similarly low levels, including Homewood, which has 3 months of inventory.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 197 compared with last month at 180. The Used homes DOM was 125 in February vs 126 last month, (Sect A p.18). Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $288,179 from $307,559 last month (Sect A p2). Over a several month period prices seem to be increasing. Average sales price for Sold Used was $186,237 this month compared to $186,544 last month. (Sect A p2).

All in all, the market continues to look quite healthy.
TWB 3/11/2017  

Birmingham Area Real Estate Sales in November Up 30% Over Last Year

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for November 2016

November saw a continuation of the pick up in dollar and unit sales over last year. Prices seem to be modestly increasing. Total dollar sales for November were $269,219,038 up 30% from $205,886,919 last year, and down 6% from last month at $287,629,774.

Total Unit sales were off 10% at 1,283 in November from 1,428 in October, a decrease of 145. This is up by 22% and 231 from last November at 1,052. New sales were up to 164 homes this month, and 257 in October, and up by 43 from 121 last year. The low inventory level of new homes suggests a good environment for builders, and prices have begun to show a more solid uptrend. Used sales were 1,119 homes in November, off 12% from 1,271 last month, a decrease of 152, and up by 188 units  from 931 last year (Sect E p.3).

ACRE numbers are slightly different from those we report. With ACRE, we released our month by month 2016 forecast which can be seen here: ACRE. For Birmingham, the full year projection for 2016 = 13,460, a 1.25% difference from 2015 actual of 13,294.  October overperformed the projection. The cumulative error is plus 9% year to date; that is actuals are running ahead of projections (through October).

Housing permits for October are a bit less than last year. For Jefferson County, in October there were 66 permits compared with 101 last year. Shelby County was somewhat higher than last year’s level (see the web site).

Total inventory is slightly lower this month at 8,654 vs. last month at 8,851 and less than 9,740 last year. It is curious that we don’t seem to be seeing the more normal seasonal reduction of inventory which has been remarkably stable since the beginning of the year without the normal uptick we usually see in the summer either (Sect C p.1). I’d guess that it is an indication of market equilibrium, as the months of inventory have stabilized at about the 6 month level. Active New listings decreased to 1,101 in November from 1,158 in October (Sect E p.3). Absorption rate for New homes is at 7 months supply this month, which is even with 7 months last year. (Sect E p.3). The New homes have normal inventory levels in the 4-8 month range depending on area and price range. (Sect C p.1). The level of inventory, both in months of inventory and housing units, has been continuing to improve for the year.

Absorption for Used homes in November shows 6 months, which is less than the 7 last year. Used Active listings at 7,553 are down from last month of 7,693, and quite a bit less than 8,725 last year (Sect E p.3). Inventory levels have continued to trend down from prior years. Market performance is highly area specific, so check the individual area charts. For instance, Mountain Brook has between 1 and 4 months of inventory except in the over $900,000 category, which has 9 months of inventory (44 homes), with 4 sold in that price range last month. There are a number of MLS areas, particularly those known as the “over the mountain” communities, showing similarly low levels of inventory, including Homewood which has 3 months of inventory.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 209 compared with last month at 201. The Used homes DOM was 122 in November vs 112 last month, (Sect A p.18). Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $299,783 from $313,521 last month (Sect A p2), over a several month period though prices seem to be increasing. Average sales price for Sold Used was $196,653 this month compared to $187,574 last month. (Sect A p2).

All in all, the market continues to look quite healthy.
TWB 12/9/2016