Birmingham October Area Real Estate Sales Up 11% From Last year

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for October 2014

Dollar sales in October declined by 18% to $233,191,089 from September’s $286,160,779, up by 11% over last October’s $210,290,310. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales has resumed its upward trend indicating modest growth.

Total Unit sales were down 13% to 1,235 in October from 1,427 in September, a decrease of 192. This is up 2% from last October at 1,205. New sales decreased by 42 units to 133 homes this month from 175 in September and down from 146 last year. Used sales were 1,102 homes in October, down 12% from 1,252 last month, a decrease of 150, and up by 39 units from 1,063 last year(Sect E p.3). Note the higher growth in Dollars (11%) than Units (2%) year over year, indicating stronger pricing.

Using the ACRE data and results for forecasting, which are derived in a slightly different method than this report, we forecasted a full year gain of 8% for the full year. As of September the cumulative increase in units is 5%. We determined that the Birmingham MLS is assigning some sales to the Talladega market which were previously reported as part of Birmingham, thus reducing the reported sales in Birmingham, so the forecast is probably a bit more accurate than it appears on a “comparable” basis.

This month total inventory is 7% lower at 9,099 vs. last month at 9,748 and 10,519 last year. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market. Active New listings decreased to 824 in October from 1,070 in September, a decline of 246 units (Sect E p.3).  

Housing permits were down in Jefferson County to 58 in September from 101 in August. Shelby County went from 31 to 38 in September. Year to date there has been 720 Multifamily permits in Jefferson county compared with 950 Single family permits, this is quite a change from recent years when there was hardly any Multifamily construction

Absorption rate for New homes is at 6 months supply this month which is one month better than last year at this time. Last month though, shows 8 months of supply (Sect E p.3). The New homes for the most part have normal inventory levels in the 1-7 month range. (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in October shows 7 months, two months better than 9 months last year. Used Active listings at 8,275 are lower than the 9,452 last year (Sect E p.3). The market performance is highly area specific, so check the individual area charts. For instance, Mountain Brook has about two months of inventory except in the over $900,000 category, which has 7 months of inventory (37 homes) with six sold in that price range last month . The average days on market for that category is 82. There are a number of MLS areas showing similarly low levels of inventory, including Homewood and Centerpoint.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 225, compared with 197 last month. The Used homes DOM was 125 in October, compared with 127 last month (Sect A p.18). Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $280,870 from $287,642 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales price for Sold Used homes decreased to $177,709 from $188,357 last month (Sect A p2). The moving average price for all homes has been up steadily for the past year. (Sect A p2).

TWB 11/08/2014


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