Author Archives: Tom Brander

About Tom Brander

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Birmingham Area Real Estate Unit Sales up 6% Over Last February

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for February 2015

Birmingham February Sales

Birmingham February Sales

Dollar sales in February experienced an expected seasonal improvement of 22% to $200,563,499 from January’s $163,769,334, up by 18% over last February’s of $169,452,699. The increase over last year in the last two months indicates the possibility for a strong spring season. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales is continuing to show a very steady upward trend indicating consistent growth.

Total Unit sales were up 13% to 1,047 in February from 926 in January, a increase of 121. This is up 6% from last February at 986. New sales increased by 7 units to 102 homes this month from 95 in January and off from 114 last year. Used sales were 945 homes in February, up 14% from 831 last month, an increase of 114, and up by 8% or 73 units from 872 last year(Sect E p.3).

Keeping in mind the ACRE numbers are slightly different from those we report. With Acre, we released our 2015 forecast which can be seen here. We expect the Birmingham area to be 6% above 2014 levels. So this month’s unit increase of 6% is in line with the projection.  Based on what I see I expect pretty substantial market gains. I also expect to see a healthy increase in new construction, the beginnings of which we can see from the year over year gains in permits below.

This month total inventory is 1% lower at 9,359 vs. last month at 9,478 and 9,488 last year. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market. Active New listings decreased to 961 in February from 1,183 in January, a decline of 222 units (Sect E p.3).  

Housing permits were up in Jefferson County to 101 in January from 93 in December, which is up considerably from 65 last year. Shelby County went from 41 to 39 in January, up from 5 last year. It seems that builders are anticipating a strong spring market and I think they are right. In addition, we are seeing a more significant number of multi-family construction units (which we do not formally track or report) in most markets.

Absorption rate for New homes is at 6.8 months supply this month, which is up slightly from 6.2 months last year at this time. Last month though, shows 8 months of supply (Sect E p.3). The New homes for the most part have normal inventory levels in the 1-7 month range depending on area and price range. (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in February shows 7 months, one month better than the 8 months last year. Used Active listings at 8,398 are up slightly from last month at 8,295 and lower than the 8,666 last year (Sect E p.3). Market performance is highly area specific, so check the individual area charts. For instance, Mountain Brook has about four months of inventory except in the over $900,000 category, which has 7 months of inventory (36 homes), with six sold in that price range last month . The average days on market for that category is 131. There are a number of MLS areas showing similarly low levels of inventory, including Homewood and Centerpoint.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 209 compared with last month at 112. The Used homes DOM was 131 in February vs 130 last month, (Sect A p.18). Average sales price for Sold New homes increased to $304,125 from $294,532 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales price for Sold Used homes increased to $179,410 from $163,404 last month (Sect A p2). The moving average price for all homes has been up steadily for the past year. (Sect A p2).

TWB 3/7//2015

Alabama Coastal Sales About Even With Last Year

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of February 2014

Baldwin February Sales

Baldwin February Sales

Sales dollars increased 19% in February to $101,572,601 from January of $85,561,282. This is about even with February last year at $102,008,927. (Sect A p.2). The 12 month moving average line of sales which had continued to point up steadily for three years can now best be described as “squiggly.” I would characterize the market activity as flat. The monthly sales total in dollars was almost the same as last year and last year was the best sales year since 2005. The lack of new construction now seems to be depressing sales somewhat. Inventories continue trending down.

In concert with ACRE, The Alabama Center for Real Estate, has projected expectations for 2015. We use the ACRE provided data for the projections, which differs slightly from the data in this report. While the projection last year was not very accurate, I believe that this year will be much better as we now have more ”normal “data not distorted by oil spill and weather. The projection for 2015 expects a unit increase of 4.75% over 2014 actual, which is close to the 6.6% increase we see year to date.

On a unit basis, sales of all houses were up 10% to 413 this month vs. last month at 374, which is about even with last year’s 411. There is still substantial inventory available to satisfy demand.

Used Home sales increased 5% to 355 this month vs. 337 last month, which is down 5% from last year’s 375 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 58 this month vs 37 last month and compared with 36 last year. Interestingly, there was a big drop in sales of under $100,000 properties from a monthly average of between 60 and 80 down to 45 this month.

New listings for New homes decreased to 66 from 83 in January. Used homes New listings decreased to 776 from 790 in January with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has once again been improving. In February, there were 3,440 Active Used homes, a reduction from 3,686 in January. The New home market, which peaked in February 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 400.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 7 months of inventory in February vs. 9 in January. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 8 months of inventory for February vs. 9 in January. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in January 2008 to 7 months this February. The inventory of homes in the upper price range remains high with homes over $400,000 at over a year’s supply. Even here we are seeing improvement, which may set the stage for some acceleration in new construction.

Average sales price for all homes has been improving modestly for the past year. For New units, prices decreased to  $233,054 from $240,688 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices increased to $248,048 from $227,465 in January. The price trend is up for the year. Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in February was 209 vs last month of 202. Days On Market for Used was 162 compared with last month of 160.

TWB 3/8/2015

Birmingham Area Sales In January Up 12% From Last Year

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for January 2015

Dollar sales in January experienced an expected seasonal decline of 35% to $154,737,263 from December’s $236,286,564, up by 12% over last January’s $138,585,163. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales is continuing to show a very steady upward trend indicating modest and consistent growth.

January Sales

January Sales

Total Unit sales were down 25% to 873 in January from 1,157 in December, a decrease of 284. This is up 4% from last January at 840. New sales decreased by 86 units to 89 homes this month from 175 in December and off from 91 last year. Used sales were 784 homes in January, off 20% from 982 last month, a decrease of 198, and up by 5% or 35 units from 749 last year(Sect E p.3).

Keep in mind the ACRE numbers are slightly different from those we report. With Acre, we released our 2015 forecast which can be seen here. We expect the Birmingham area to be 6% above 2014 levels. So this month’s unit increase of 4% is slightly worse than the projection.  Based on what I see I expect pretty healthy market gains. I also expect to see a healthy increase in new construction, the beginnings of which we can see from the year over year gains in permits, below.

This month total inventory is 1% lower at 9,101 vs. last month at 9,195 and 9,347 last year. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market. Active New listings decreased to 912 in January from 1,058 in December, a decline of 146 units (Sect E p.3).  

Housing permits were up in Jefferson County to 93 in December from 72 in November. Shelby County went from 10 to 41 in December. It seems that builders are anticipating a strong spring market. I think they are right. In addition, we are seeing a more significant number of Multi-family construction units (which we do not formally track or report) in most markets.

Absorption rate for New homes is at 6.5 months supply this month which is even with 6.4 months last year at this time. Last month though, shows 8 months of supply (Sect E p.3). The New homes for the most part have normal inventory levels in the 1-7 month range depending on area and price range. (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in January shows 7 months, one month better than 8 months last year. Used Active listings at 8,189 are lower than the 8,495 last year (Sect E p.3). Market performance is highly area specific, so check the individual area charts. For instance, Mountain Brook has about three months of inventory except in the over $900,000 category, which has 6 months of inventory (31 homes) with three sold in that price range last month . The average days on market for that category is 84. There are a number of MLS areas showing similarly low levels of inventory, including Homewood and Centerpoint.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 212 compared with last month at 189. The Used homes DOM was 130 in January vs 134 last month, (Sect A p.18). Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $295,257 from $310,600 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales price for Sold Used homes decreased to $163,851 from $185,266 last month (Sect A p2). The moving average price for all homes has been up steadily for the past year. (Sect A p2).


TWB 2/7/2015

Alabama Coastal Residential Market Even With Last January

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of January 2014

January Sales

January Sales

Sales dollars decreased 13% in January to $84,642,782 from December of $97,737,574. This is down 1%  from January last year at $85,740,866. There was a very big spike in year end condo closings last year. (Sect A p.2). The 12 month moving average line of sales which had continued to point up steadily for three years can now best be described as “squiggly.” I would characterize the market activity as flat. The monthly sales total in dollars was almost the same as last year and last year was the best sales year since 2005. The lack of new construction now seems to be depressing sales somewhat. Inventories continue trending down.

In concert with ACRE, The Alabama Center for Real Estate, have projected expectations for 2015. We use the ACRE provided data for the projections, which differs slightly from the data in this report. While the projection last year was not very accurate, I believe that this year will be much better as we now have more ”normal “data not distorted by oil spill and weather. The projection for 2015 expects a unit increase of 4.75% over 2014 actual.

On a unit basis, sales of all houses were off 19% to 370 this month vs. last month at 457, which is up 13% from last year’s 327. There is still substantial inventory available to satisfy demand.

Used Home sales decreased 15% to 334 this month vs. 393 last month, which is up from last year’s 297 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 36 this month vs 63 last month and compared with 30 last year.

New listings for New homes increased to 82 from 61 in December. Used homes New listings increased to 775 from 422 in December with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has once again been improving. In January, there were 3,311 Active Used homes, a reduction from 3,541 in December. The New home market, which peaked in January 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 418.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 7 months of inventory in January vs. 8 in December. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 8 months of inventory for January vs. 9 in December. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in December 2008 to 8 months this January. The inventory of homes in the upper price range remains high with homes over $400,000 at over a year’s supply. Even here we are seeing improvement, which may set the stage for some acceleration in new construction.

Average sales price for all homes has been improving modestly for the past year. For New units, prices increased to  $241,041 from $237,021 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices increased to $227,441 from $210,118 in December. The price trend is up for the year. Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in January was 202 vs last month of 164. Days On Market for Used was 160 compared with last month of 155.

TWB 2/11/2015

Survey Results, Outlook for 2015 Alabama Real Estate

The following slide show was presented to the Leadership Group of The Alabama Center For Real Estate. It summarizes the results of the 4th quarter survey, which forecasts the 1st quarter expectations of 2015. It also has the results of our 2012-2014 projections and our projections for the 2015 Alabama Real Estate Markets.

 

Birmingham Area Real Estate Sales Robust in December

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for December 2014

Bham2014YERpt_SCTAoverall_combined

A short sweet summary of the Year and quarter:

Total unit sales year to year: 2013: 15920 2014: 16744  a 5% increase

4th quarter unit sales   2013: 3361    2014: 3479    a 4% increase

Prices: (based on an average of 12 month average prices)

New   2013: $271,813   2014: $284,082   a 5% increase

Used 2013: $171,313   2014: $178,040   a 4% increase

Inventory:

New   2013: 864    2014: 815   a 6% reduction

Used 2013: 8487 2014: 7874 a 7% reduction

Dollar sales in December improved by 23% to $233,754,358 from November’s $190,787,845, up by 11% over last December’s $211,145,543. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales is showing a very steady upward trend indicating modest and consistent growth.

Total Unit sales were up 10% to 1,144 in December from 1,039 in November, an increase of 105. This is up 2% from last December at 1,121. New sales increased by 48 units to 171 homes this month from 123 in November and up from 139 last year. Used sales were 973 homes in December, up 6% from 916 last month, an increase of 57, and down by 9 units from 982 last year(Sect E p.3). Note the higher growth in Dollars (11%) compared to Units (2%) year to year, indicating stronger pricing.

Keeping in mind the ACRE numbers are slightly different from those we report, From ACRE: ”Forecast: December sales results were 1.1 percent or 11 units below our monthly forecast. The Center projected 12,845 closed transactions for the market in 2014 while the actual sales were 12,539 units, representing a variance of 2.4 percent.” We determined that the Birmingham MLS is assigning some sales to the Talladega market which were previously reported as part of Birmingham, thus reducing the reported sales in Birmingham, so the forecast is probably a bit more accurate than it appears on a “comparable” basis. With Acre we will be releasing our forecast for 2015 soon so stay tuned. Based on what I see so far I would expect pretty healthy market gains.

This month total inventory is 12% lower at 8,689 vs. last month at 9,905 and 9,351 last year. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market. Active New listings decreased to 815 in December from 1,098 in November, a decline of 283 units (Sect E p.3).  

Housing permits were down in Jefferson County to 72 in November from 113 in October. Shelby County went from 20 to 10 in November.

Absorption rate for New homes is at 6 months supply this month which is one month better than last year at this time. Last month though, shows 8 months of supply (Sect E p.3). The New homes for the most part have normal inventory levels in the 1-7 month range. (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in December shows 7 months, one month better than 8 months last year. Used Active listings at 7,874 are lower than the 8,487 last year (Sect E p.3). Market performance is highly area specific, so check the individual area charts. For instance, Mountain Brook has about two months of inventory except in the over $900,000 category, which has 6 months of inventory (32 homes) with five sold in that price range last month . The average days on market for that category is 178. There are a number of MLS areas showing similarly low levels of inventory, including Homewood and Centerpoint.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 189. The Used homes DOM was 134 in December, (Sect A p.18). Average sales price for Sold New homes increased to $310,781 from $275,989 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales price for Sold Used homes increased to $185,623 from $171,224 last month (Sect A p2). The moving average price for all homes has been up steadily for the past year. (Sect A p2).

TWB 1/16/2015

Alabama Coastal Sales Off From Last Year

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of December 2014

bald2014yeSect_A_RPT_wabsorb

A short sweet summary of the Year and quarter:

Total unit sales year to year: 2013: 5,847  2014: 6,092    a 4% increase

4th quarter unit sales               2013: 1,270   2014: 1,362    a 7% increase

Prices: (based on an average of 12 month average prices)

New   2013: $281,062   2014: $268,850   a 4% decrease

Used 2013: $220,194   2014: $234,634   a 7% increase

Inventory:

New   2013: 459    2014: 437    a   5% reduction

Used 2013: 3,716 2014: 3,249 a 13% reduction

Sales dollars increased 1% in December to $96,165,774 from November of $95,270,573. This is down 26%  from December last year at $130,825,801. There was a very big spike in year end condo closings last year. (Sect A p.2). The 12 month moving average line of sales which had continued to point up steadily for three years can now best be described as “squiggly.” I would characterize the market activity as “unusual”. The lack of new construction now seems to be depressing sales somewhat. Inventories continue trending down.

In concert with ACRE, The Alabama Center for Real Estate, we did projections for 2014 full year sales. We use the ACRE provided data for the projections, which differs slightly from the data in this report. We project unit sales for Baldwin County increasing by 32% over 2013 and the projected condo increase of  8% over 2013.  As of November, the cumulative year over year change in units is up 5%, far short of the adjusted forecast. The condo actuals are cumulatively at about 8% below the forecast, with a 2% year to year change.

On a unit basis, sales of all houses were up 5% to 449 this month vs. last month at 426, which is off 3% from last year’s 461. There is still substantial inventory available to satisfy demand.

Used Home sales increased 6% to 388 this month vs. 366 last month, which is up from last year’s 347 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 60 this month vs 60 last month and compared with 114 last year.

New listings for New homes decreased to 61 from 79 in November. Used homes New listings decreased to 420 from 568 in November with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has once again been improving. In December, there were 3,249 Active Used homes, a reduction from 3,962 in November. The New home market, which peaked in December 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 437.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 8 months of inventory in December vs. 9 in November. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 8 months of inventory for December vs. 10 in November. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in November 2008 to 8 months this December. The inventory of homes in the upper price range remains high with homes over $400,000 at over a year’s supply. Even here we are seeing improvement, which may set the stage for some acceleration in new construction.

Average sales price for all homes has been improving modestly for the past year. For New units, prices decreased to  $238,807 from $271,144 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices decreased to $210,333 from $215,852 in November. The price trend is up for the year. Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in December was 164. Days On Market for Used was 155.

TWB 1/16/2015