Tag Archives: Absorption

August Baldwin Coastal Real Estate Up From Last Year

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of August 2016

Sales dollars increased 11% in August to $169,814,271 from July $153,027,746. This is 36% up from August last year’s record level at $124,886,172. (Sect A p.2). The jump was fueled by an increase in the $700,000 and over $900,000 price ranges, in other words the upper end had a much healthier than expected month. Incidentally, the increase was predominantly in the Orange Beach area. The 12 month moving average line of sales, after a pause of three months, appears to be resuming its upward trend. Lack of new construction now seems to be depressing sales somewhat. Inventories are continuing to trend down very consistently.

Sales in most price categories show consistent improvement. Inventories are also improving. Check out the chart on page A-17 to fully appreciate the inventory trends. Still, inventory remains high, but improving, at over a year for anything over $500,000.

In concert with ACRE, The Alabama Center for Real Estate, we have projected expectations for 2016. We use the ACRE provided data for the projections, which differs slightly from the data in this report. The projection for 2016 located here expects projected home sales in 2016 of 5,139, which is a -1.74% difference from 2015 actual of  5,230. Year to date through August actual sales are 5.5% above expectations. 194 more units were sold through August than the 3,561 projected.

On a unit basis, sales of all houses were off 1 at 622 this month vs. last month at 623, which is up from last year’s healthy level of 556. Used Home sales increased to 526 this month vs. 521 last month, which is up from last year’s 489 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 96 this month vs 102 last month and compared with 67 last year. New listings for New homes increased to 136 from 117 in July. Used homes New listings increased to 751 from 676 in July with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has been consistently improving. In August, there were 3,320 Active Used homes, a reduction from 3,707 in July and a new multi year low. New homes, which peaked in August 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sit at 588.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 7 months of inventory in August vs. 8 in July. The Absorption rate for Used homes was also 7 months of inventory in August vs. 8 in July. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in July 2008 to 7 months this August. The inventory of homes in the upper price range remains high with homes priced $500,000 and over at a year’s supply, but even here we are seeing improvement. I have been expecting construction to begin to pick-up in the under $400,000 range, and we have seen a pick-up in New homes, New listings where sales seem to be keeping up so net inventory of new home remains low in these price ranges.

Average sales price for all homes has been static for the past year. For New units, average price increased to  $258,309 from $239,135 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices increased to $275,697 from $246,902 in July. Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in August was 161 vs last month of 163. Days On Market for Used was 158 compared to last month 165.

TWB 9/10/2016

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Alabama April Coastal Real Estate Sales Even with Last Year

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of April 2016

Sales dollars increased an expected 6% in April to $144,577,700 from March $136,196,121. This is very close to April last year at $147,406,226. (Sect A p.2). The 12 month moving average line of sales, which had continued to point up steadily for three years, is flattening. Lack of new construction now seems to be depressing sales somewhat. Inventories are continuing to trend down very consistently.

Sales in most price categories show consistent improvement. Inventories are also improving. Check out the chart on page A-17 to fully appreciate the inventory trends. Still, inventory remains high at over a year for anything over $500,000.

In concert with ACRE, The Alabama Center for Real Estate, we have projected expectations for 2016. We use the ACRE provided data for the projections, which differs slightly from the data in this report. The projection for 2016 located here expects a projected 2016 = 5,139, which is a -1.74% difference from 2015 actual of  5,230. Year to date through March actual sales are 3% above expectations. 34 more units sold year to date than projected.

On a unit basis, sales of all houses were even at 586 this month vs. last month at 586, which is practically identical with last year’s healthy level of 582. Used Home sales increased 32% to 499 this month vs. 483 last month, which is off 3% from last year’s 518 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 87 this month vs 103 last month and compared with 64 last year. New listings for New homes decreased to 130 from 138 in March. Used homes New listings declined to 798 from 888 in March with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has been consistently  improving. In April, there were 3,243 Active Used homes, a reduction from 3,784 in March and a new multi year low. New homes, which peaked in April 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sit at 448.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 6 months of inventory in April vs. 8 in March. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 7 months of inventory in April vs. 8 in March. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in March 2008 to 7 months this April. The inventory of homes in the upper price range remains high with homes over $500,000 at over a year’s supply, but even here we are seeing improvement. I expect construction to begin to pick-up in the under $400,000 range, but so far have not seen it.

Average sales price for all homes has been static for the past year. For New units, price decreased to  $233,618 from $235,768 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices increased to $249,004 from $231,702 in March. Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in April was 165 vs last month of 146. Days On Market for Used was 167 compared to last month 161.

TWB 5/8/2016

Birmingham 2015 Residential Real Estate Sales Finish Strong

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for December 2015

Monthly Birmingham Sales

Monthly Birmingham Sales

Full year results:

Total Units New Used Total Dollars
2014 15,686 1,698 13,988 $3,006,565,892
2015 16,813 1,748 15,065 $3,334,574,593
% change 7.2% 2.9% 7.7% 10.9%

Dollar sales in December experienced an expected year end pick-up of 18% to $235,361,806 from November $200,218,537, almost identical to last December’s of $238,138,339 (off 1%). The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales over the last three months of the year has flattened.

Total Unit sales were up 20% to 1,231 in December from 1,023 in November, an increase of 208. This is up by 5% from last December at 1,172. New sales were up at 158 homes this month and 115 in November and off from 177 last year. The price pressure and low inventory levels of new homes suggests a good environment for builders. Used sales were 1,073 homes in December, up 18% from 908 last month, an increase of 165, and up by 78 units or 8% from 995 last year (Sect E p.3).

ACRE numbers are slightly different from those we report. With ACRE, we released our 2015 forecast which can be seen here: ACRE. December sales were not yet available. ACRE’s year-to-date sales forecast through November projected 12,332 closed transactions while the actual sales were 12,289 units, (off by 43 units) a cumulative variance of -.35%. Given the December increase in actual sales reported here, I expect we will come in very close for the full year.

Housing permits were off in Jefferson County to 58 in November from 101 in October, which is off from 72 last year. This is the lowest level since August 2014. Shelby County was 26 from 32 last month, up from 10 last year.

Total inventory is slightly lower this month at 8,876 vs. last month at 9,571 and somewhat less than 9,002 last year. Active New listings decreased to 931 in December from 1,025 in November (Sect E p.3). Absorption rate for New homes is at 6 months supply this month, which is about even with 6 months last year. (Sect E p.3). The New homes for the most part have normal inventory levels in the 1-7 month range depending on area and price range. However, the $800,000-$900,000 range has 22 months of supply (11 houses) (Sect C p.1). This level of inventory, both in months of inventory and housing units has been quite stable for the year.

Absorption for Used homes in December shows 6 months which is about even with 7 last year. Used Active listings at 7,945 are even with last month at 8,546 and a bit less than 8,109 last  year (Sect E p.3).For the year, inventory levels have generally trended down from prior years. Market performance is highly area specific, so check the individual area charts. For instance, Mountain Brook has between 1 and 9 months of inventory except in the over $900,000 category, which has 10 months of inventory (39 homes), with none sold in that price range last month . There are a number of MLS areas showing similarly low levels of inventory, including Homewood (only 3 months of inventory).

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 205 compared with last month at 207. The Used homes DOM was 125 in December vs 121 last month, (Sect A p.18). Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $310,211 from $333,656 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales price for Sold Used homes decreased to $173,670 from $178,247 last month (Sect A p2). The moving average price for all homes has been up steadily for the past year. (Sect A p2).

TWB 1/10/2016

Birmingham Residential Real Estate Even with Last October

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for October 2015

In June the Birmingham MLS changed its base system. We have recoded the data to be consistent. Let me know if you see anything strange!

Dollar sales in October experienced a seasonal decline of 19% to $237,234,031 from September $292,441,366, off by 3% from last October’s of $245,404,227. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales has flattened. It seems to me that there has been a somewhat larger number of late reported sales which means that prior month totals are higher than what we showed last month by larger amounts than has historically been the case. It is important to view the overall trend and not get hung up on the precision of the latest month’s number.

Total Unit sales were down 3% to 1,240 in October from 1,515 in September, a decrease of 46. This is even  with last October at 1303. New sales were off at 104 homes this month and 179 in September and off from 143 last year. The price pressure and low inventory levels of new homes suggests a good environment for builders. Used sales were 1,136 homes in October, down 3% from 1,336 last month, a decrease of 45, and up by 70 units or .6% from 1,160 last year (Sect E p.3).

ACRE numbers are slightly different from those we report. With ACRE, we released our 2015 forecast which can be seen here: ACRE. For September, the latest available: September sales were 5% or 59 units above our forecast. ACRE’s year-to-date sales forecast through September projected 10,358 closed transactions while the actual sales were 10,471 units, a cumulative variance of 1%.

Total inventory is about even this month at 9,533 vs. last month at 9,970 and about even with 9,876 last year. Active New listings decreased to 940 in October from 1,056 in September (Sect E p.3).

Housing permits were off in Jefferson County to 83 in September from 90 in August, which is off from 95 last year. Shelby County went from 30 to 28 in September, off from 38 last year.

Absorption rate for New homes is at 6 months supply this month, which is about even with 7 months last year. (Sect E p.3). The New homes for the most part have normal inventory levels in the 1-7 month range depending on area and price range. However, the $800,000-$900,000 range has 20 months of supply (Sect C p.1).

Absorption for Used homes in October shows 7 months which is about even with 8 last year. Used Active listings at 8,593 are even with last month at 8,914 and about the same as 8,936 last year (Sect E p.3). Market performance is highly area specific, so check the individual area charts. For instance, Mountain Brook has between 1 and 9 months of inventory except in the over $900,000 category, which has 10 months of inventory (45 homes), with 3 sold in that price range last month . The average days on market for that category is 251. There are a number of MLS areas showing similarly low levels of inventory, including Homewood and Fultondale.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 189 compared with last month at 185. The Used homes DOM was 125 in October vs 120 last month, (Sect A p.18). Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $305,408 from $310,805 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales price for Sold Used homes increased to $180,873 from $177,251 last month (Sect A p2). The moving average price for all homes has been up steadily for the past year. (Sect A p2).
TWB 11/13/2015

Birmingham Real Estate Sales in July About Even With Last Year

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for July 2015

Last month the Birmingham MLS changed its base system, and while we recoded data from the new system to match the old, we saw some inconsistencies last month which have now been corrected, which resulted in increased sales for June, and we corrected the history. We will continue checking over the next few months. Let me know if you see anything strange!

Dollar sales in July experienced a seasonal decline of 12% to $333,149,084 from June’s $379,642,929, up by 1% over last July’s of $329,096,,532. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales is showing consistent growth.

Total Unit sales were down 7% to 1,614 in July from 1,728 in June, a decrease of 114. This is off 1% from last July at 1601. New sales decreased by 44 units to 140 homes this month from 184 in June and off from 156 last year. The price pressure and low inventory levels of new homes suggests a good environment for builders. Used sales were 1,474 homes in July, down 5% from 1,544 last month, a decrease of 70, and up by 29 units or 2% from 1,445 last year (Sect E p.3).

ACRE numbers are slightly different from those we report. With ACRE, we released our 2015 forecast which can be seen here: ACRE. For June, the latest available: June sales were 4.5%  or 62 unit above our forecast. ACRE’s year-to-date sales forecast through June projected 6,650 closed transactions while the actual sales were 6,690 units, a cumulative variance of .6%.

Total inventory is about even this month at 10,367 vs. last month at 10,402 and 2% less than the 10,532 last year. Active New listings decreased to 936 in July from 1,028 in June, a decline of 92 units (Sect E p.3).

Housing permits were up in Jefferson County to 109 in June from 108 in May, which is down from 142 last year. Shelby County went from 32 to 38 in June, up from 25 last year. We are seeing a more significant number of multi-family construction units (which we do not formally track or report), in most markets. I am surprised by the continued low level of new home building.

Absorption rate for New homes is at 6 months supply this month, which is even with 6 months last year. (Sect E p.3). The New homes for the most part have normal inventory levels in the 1-7 month range depending on area and price range. The $800,000-$900,000 range has 15 months of supply however (Sect C p.1 )

Absorption for Used homes in July shows 8 months which is even with 8 months last year. Used Active listings at 9,431 are up from last month at 9,374 and lower than the 9,701 last year (Sect E p.3). Market performance is highly area specific, so check the individual area charts. For instance, Mountain Brook has between 3 and 9 months of inventory except in the over $900,000 category, which has 11 months of inventory (50 homes), with 4 sold in that price range last month . The average days on market for that category is 85. There are a number of MLS areas showing similarly low levels of inventory, including Homewood and Fultondale.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 194 compared with last month at 205. The Used homes DOM was 117 in July vs 126 last month, (Sect A p.18). Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $292,006 from $307,082 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales price for Sold Used homes decreased to $198,282 from $209,288 last month (Sect A p2). The moving average price for all homes has been up steadily for the past year. (Sect A p2).

TWB 8/11/2015

Coastal Alabama Real Estate Continues To Set Records In July

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of July 2015

Sales dollars decreased 5% in July to $154,052,831(a record for July) from June $162,801,446. This is 41% better than July last year at $109,094,980. (Sect A p.2). The 12 month moving average line of sales which had continued to point up steadily for three years, except for the last part of last year and the first few months of this year, has now gotten a healthy upwards tilt due to the record setting last five months gains. Last year was the best sales year since 2005, and the last five months has been substantially above that level. The lack of new construction now seems to be depressing sales somewhat. Inventories continue trending down.

Sales in most price categories have begun to show consistent improvement. Inventories are improving but remain high at over a year for anything over $400,000.

In concert with ACRE, The Alabama Center for Real Estate, we have projected expectations for 2015. We use the ACRE provided data for the projections, which differs slightly from the data in this report. While the projection last year was not very accurate, I believe that this year will be much better as we now have more ”normal “data not distorted by the oil spill and weather. The projection for 2015 located here expects a unit increase of 4.75% over 2014 actual. Through June cumulative sales are running 7% ahead of the projection. For the month of June sales were 9% ahead of the projection.

On a unit basis, sales of all houses were off 4% to 631 this month vs. last month at 602, which is 29% above  last year’s healthy level of 479. There is still substantial inventory available to satisfy demand.

Used Home sales decreased 5% to 535 this month vs. 561 last month, which is up 22% from last year’s 437 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 83 this month vs 81 last month and compared with 42 last year.

New listings for New homes increased to 97 from 95 in June. Used homes New listings decreased to 734 from 761 in June with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has once again been improving. In July, there were 3,615 Active Used homes, a reduction from 4,167 in June. The New home market, which peaked in July 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 436.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 7 months of inventory in July vs. 8 in June. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 8 months of inventory in July vs. 9 in June. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in June 2008 to 8 months this July. The inventory of homes in the upper price range remains high with homes over $400,000 at over a year’s supply but even here we are seeing improvement. I would expect to see construction begin to pick-up in the under $400,000 range, but so far have not seen it.

Average sales price for all homes has been improving modestly for the past year. For New units, prices decreased to  $234,869 from $268,416 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices increased to $251,512 from $251,443 in June. The price trend is up for the year. Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in July was 174 vs last month of 178. Days On Market for Used was 152 compared to last month 158.

TWB 8/8/2015

April Birmingham Area Real Estate Sales Jump 12% Over Last Year

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for April 2015

Dollar sales in April experienced a better than expected seasonal improvement of 7% to $292,262,727 from March’s $273,508,424, up by 12% over last April’s of $262,916,981. The increase over last year in the last four months indicates a strong spring season. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales is continuing to show a very steady upward trend indicating consistent growth.

Total Unit sales were up 4% to 1,439 in April from 1,387 in March, an increase of 52. This is up 2% from last April at 1414. The larger rise in dollar sales than unit sales indicates improving pricing, and suggests the lower inventory levels are making it more of a seller’s market. New sales decreased by 10 units to 132 homes this month from 142 in March and off from 134 last year. The price pressure and low inventory levels of new homes suggests a good environment for builders. Used sales were 1,307 homes in April, up 5% from 1,245 last month, an increase of 62, and up by 2% or 27 units from 1,280 last year(Sect E p.3).

ACRE numbers are slightly different from those we report. With ACRE, we released our 2015 forecast which can be seen here. We expect the Birmingham area to be 6% above 2014 levels. So this month’s unit increase of 4% is behind the projection.  Based on what I am seeing, I expect substantial market gains. I also expect to see a healthy increase in new construction, the beginnings of which we can see in permits below.

Total inventory is 2% higher at 10,281 vs. last month at 10,093 and 1% more than the 10,194 last year. Active New listings decreased to 943 in April from 1,253 in March, a decline of 31 units (Sect E p.3).  

Housing permits were up in Jefferson County to 125 in March from 98 in February, which is down from 133 last year. Shelby County went from 45 to 50 in March, up from 38 last year. I expect this pace to pick-up. We are seeing a more significant number of multi-family construction units (which we do not formally track or report) in most markets.

Absorption rate for New homes is at 6.7 months supply this month, which is up slightly from 6.1 months last year at this time. Last month though, shows 8.9 months of supply (Sect E p.3). The New homes for the most part have normal inventory levels in the 1-7 month range depending on area and price range. (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in April shows 8 months, even with 8 months last year. Used Active listings at 9,338 are up slightly from last month at 8,840 and lower than the 9,363 last year (Sect E p.3). Market performance is highly area specific, so check the individual area charts. For instance, Mountain Brook has about 6 months of inventory except in the over $900,000 category, which has 9 months of inventory (49 homes), with 2 sold in that price range last month . The average days on market for that category is 95. There are a number of MLS areas showing similarly low levels of inventory, including Homewood and Centerpoint.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 198 compared with last month at 210. The Used homes DOM was 122 in April vs 130 last month, (Sect A p.18). Average sales price for Sold New homes increased to $317,178 from $291,673 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales price for Sold Used homes increased to $191,580 from $186,418 last month (Sect A p2). The moving average price for all homes has been up steadily for the past year. (Sect A p2).

TWB 5/09//2015