Category Archives: Oil Spill

Baldwin County Has A Good 2011 In Real Estate

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of December 2011

Year end Summary:

TOTAL NEW USED New Avg price Used Avg price All Avg Price Total $ Sales
2010 3,788 360 3,428 $198,008 $201,010 $200,781 $760,995,789
2011 4,392 322 4,070 $215,567 $200,589 $201,504 $887,630,802
% change 15.95% -10.56% 18.73% 8.87% -0.21% 0.36% 16.64%

The above chart illustrates, 2011 was a very substantial improvement over 2010. New Home sales were off due to lack of supply and the heavy competition with the used market. Prices remain under pressure.

Monthly Results:

Dollar sales this month decreased 2% to $57,553,203 from November’s $58,582,263. This is 15% below December last year at $67,350,226. (Sect A p.2). The 12 month moving average line of sales flattened out once again. Inventories have been coming down quite dramatically. Unit sales have recovered to normal levels. Dollar sales still lag reflecting fewer high end sales and lower prices. This situation is starting to reverse, with more high end homes selling. Still, it is unlikely that prices will increase for a while. 

On a unit basis, sales of all houses declined 8% to 297 this month vs. 322 last month, which is 9% down from last year’s 325.

Used Home sales declined 10% to 272 this month vs. 303 last month, which is down 8% from last year’s 296 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 25 this month vs 19 last month. Low sales of New homes reflects intense competition from existing, and the shutdown of new construction.

New listings for New homes decreased to 34 from 57 in November. Used houses New listings decreased to 422 from 512 in November with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has once again been improving. In December, there were 3,461 Active Used homes, a reduction from 4,004 in November. The New home market, which peaked in December 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 317.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 12 months of inventory for December vs. 14 in November. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 10 months of inventory for December vs. 12 in November. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in December 2008 to 10 months this December.

Average sales price for all homes has been stable for the past year. For New units, prices decreased to $192,034 from $219,064 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices increased to $193,943 from $179,604 in November.

Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in December was 186 this month vs. 174 last month. Days On Market for Used was 169 this month vs. 190 last month.

While we have developed some interesting projections for the Real Estate Market in the Statewide, Birmingham and Huntsville markets, the numerous events on the coast such as the oil spill and several tropical storms, make the methods we used in the other markets unsuitable for the coast.

TWB 1/15/2012

November Alabama Coast Real Estate- Slow Steady Improvement

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of November 2011

Dollar sales this month decreased 18% to $57,418,263 from October’s $69,628,961. This is 10% above November last year at $52,326,531 when sales were impacted by the oil spill and the tax credit expiration (Sect A p.2). The 12 month moving average line of sales is quite clearly on an upwards tilt as mentioned last month. While inventories are high, unit sales have recovered to normal levels. Inventories in fact have declined quite dramatically. Dollar sales still lag reflecting fewer high end sales and lower prices. This situation is starting to reverse, with more high end homes selling. Still, it is unlikely that prices will increase for a while.

On a unit basis, sales of all houses declined 7% to 315 this month vs. 339 last month, which is 15% up from last year’s 273.

Used Home sales declined 5% to 296 this month vs. 311 last month, which is up 19% from last year’s 249 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 19 this month vs 28 last month. Low sales of New homes reflects intense competition from existing, and the shutdown of new construction.

New listings for New homes decreased to 56 from 60 in October. Used houses New listings decreased to 499 from 565 in October with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has once again been improving. In November, there were 3,663 Active Used homes, a reduction from 4,018 in October. The New home market, which peaked in November 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 342.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 13 months of inventory for November vs. 14 in October. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 11 months of inventory for November vs. 12 in October. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in November 2008 to 11 months this November.

Average sales price for all homes has been stable for the past year. For New units, prices increased to $219,064 from $177,908 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices decreased to $179,919 from $207,870 in October.

Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in November was 174 this month vs. 291 last month. Days On Market for Used was 190 this month vs. 182 last month.

TWB 12/10/2011

Alabama Coastal Real Estate Looking Better This October

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of October 2011

Dollar sales this month decreased 11% to $68,050,461 from September’s $76,595744. This is 19% above October last year at $57,221,979 when sales were impacted by the oil spill and the tax credit expiration (Sect A p.2). The 12 month moving average line of sales is quite clearly on an upwards tilt as mentioned last month.

Baldwin Overall Sales October 2011

Baldwin Overall Sales October 2011

On a 9 month basis, only 2004 and 2005 exceeded this years’ unit volume. While inventories are high, unit sales have recovered to normal levels. Inventories in fact have declined quite dramatically. Dollar sales still lag reflecting fewer high end sales and lower prices. This situation is also reversing, with more high end homes selling. Still, given the inventory level, it is unlikely that prices will increase for a while. 

On a unit basis, sales of all houses declined 9% to 335 this month vs. 370 last month, which is 17% up from last year’s 287.

Used Home sales declined 15% to 335 this month vs. 370 last month, which is up 17% from last year’s 287 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 28 this month vs 33 last month. Low sales of New homes reflects intense competition from existing, and the shutdown of new construction.

New listings for New homes increased to 59 from 45 in September. Used houses New listings increased to 559 from 549 in September with net inventory still down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has once again been improving. In October, there were 3,795 Active Used homes, a reduction from 4,253 in September. The New home market, which peaked in October 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 343.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 13 months of inventory for October vs. 14 in September. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 11 months of inventory for October vs. 13 in September. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in October 2008 to 11 months this October.

Average sales price for all homes has been stable for the past year. For New units, prices decreased to $177,908 from $179,069 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices decreased to $205,437 from $209,752 in September.

Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in October was 291 this month vs. 188 last month. Days On Market for Used was 182 this month vs. 167 last month.

TWB 11/12/2011

Year to Date Residential Sales On the Alabama Coast Surprisingly Strong

­­Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of September 2011 

Dollar sales this month decreased 15% to $75,465,744 from August’s $88,583,253. This is 25% above September last year at $60,594,052 when sales were impacted by the oil spill and the tax credit expiration (Sect A p.2). The 12 month moving average line of sales is quite clearly on an upwards tilt. Year to date sales are up 20% to $698,334,308 vs $584,097,053 last year. Unit sales are up 18% to 3,414 vs. 2,903 last year. On a 9 month basis only 2004 and 2005 exceeded this unit volume. While inventories are high, unit sales have recovered to normal levels. Dollar sales still lag reflecting fewer high end sales and lower prices. Given the inventory level it is unlikely that prices will see much recovery for a while.

For the last year, the twelve month moving average line of dollar sales is trending up. On a unit basis, sales of all houses declined 13% to 364 this month vs. 418 last month, which is 31% up from last year’s 277.

Used Home sales declined 15% to 331 this month vs. 390 last month, which is up 35% from last year’s 245 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 33 this month vs 28 last month. Low sales of New homes reflects intense competition from existing, and the shutdown of new construction.

New listings for New homes increased to 42 from 66 in August. Used houses New listings decreased to 526 from 683 in August with net inventory still down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has once again been improving. In September, there were 3,884 Active Used homes, a reduction from 4,391 in August. The New home market, which peaked in September 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 334.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 13 months of inventory for September vs. 14 in August. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 12 months of inventory for September vs. 14 in August. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in September 2008 to 12 months in September.

Average sales price for all homes has been stable for the past year. For New units, prices decreased to $179,069 from $298,172 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices increased to $210,140 from $205,729 in August.

Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in September was 188 this month vs. 303 last month. Days On Market for Used was 167 this month vs. 178 last month.

TWB 10/09/2011

August Alabama Coastal Real Estate Sales Encouraging

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal Areas MLS*: Observations for the Month of August 2011

Dollar sales this month increased 13% to $87,098,253 from July’s $77,284,985. This is 40% above August last year at $62,166,514 when sales were impacted by the oil spill and the tax credit expiration (Sect A p.2). The 12 month moving average line of sales is quite clearly on an upwards tilt.

The chart in Section A p.18 has been showing substantial inventory reduction for a year, but not so much from sales as people not listing properties. The reduction in Active listings will probably help the market somewhat. Inventories remain very high. Used inventory is now hovering about 4,000, a full 2,000 below August 2008, but the sales level has also shrunk dramatically. We did not see a normal inventory build-up during the summer. The number of Active listings continues to drop, which is positive (more below).

The 12 month moving average line of unit sales for Used homes had a pronounced upward slope through April 2010. But with the spill, it had been showing a slight downward trend. Now, for the last year, the line is trending up. On a unit basis, sales of all houses improved 2% to 416 this month vs. 406 last month, which is 15% up from last year’s 362.

In the under $100,000 price range there has been an unusual pick up in activity over the last six months going from 60-80 sales per month to 100-120 per month. It almost appears that some entity is buying up these lower priced properties? At the other end, 12 homes over $900,000 sold which is a nice increase.

Used Home sales improved up 9% to 388 this month vs. 373 last month, which is up 31% from last year’s 296 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 28 this month vs 28 last month. The low number of sales of New homes reflects the intense competition from existing, and a virtual shutdown of new construction.

New listings for New homes increased to 66 from 51 in July. Used houses New listings decreased to 675 from 697 in July with net inventory still down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has once again been improving. In August, there were 4,010 Active Used homes, a reduction from 4,491 in July. The New home market, which peaked in August 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 347.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 13 months of inventory for August vs. 13 in July. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 12 months of inventory for August vs. 14 in July. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in August 2008 to 12 months in August. (Sect A p.17).

Average sales price for all homes has been stable for the past year. For New units, prices increased to $298,172 from $203,440 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices increased to $202,962 from $201,658 in July.

Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in August was 303 this month (I regard that as a good sign as old inventory is moving) vs. 177 last month. Days On Market for Used was 178 this month vs. 185 last month.

TWB 9/11/2011

Survey Sees Slow Sales Ahead

This report was published by the Alabama Center for Real Estate several weeks ago. It is interesting how spot on the projections for a slow down are being realized.

The survey projects expectations for the 3rd quarter of 2011. The scale ranges from 0-100 with 0 being much worse, 100 being much better, and 50 indicating no change expected.

Spring and early summer sales have been modest and the Alabama real estate community is somewhat less optimistic as the industry transitions into the 3rd quarter. The overall index (red below) is at 45 this year vs. 44 last year at this time, indicating less than favorable expectations for the upcoming quarter. Last quarter the score was 49, approximately neutral, but showing a several quarter consecutive improvement, which has now reversed. Last year was dragged down by the oil spill on the coast and the now expired home buyer’s tax credit. The outlook for sales (yellow) this quarter is modestly positive at 52, down from 60 last quarter.

Overview 3Q 2011

Overview 3Q 2011

The statewide overall score declined (see green line above). In short, while sales are expected to slightly improve, the inventory, price and credit indications are still below the 50 mark and expected to deteriorate. Sales will be up, but sellers are likely to be frustrated by competition and pricing, and some buyers will continue to have problems getting financing.

Regional Results:

The two most positive markets are The Alabama Coast and the North Central Birmingham- Tuscaloosa markets. North Alabama-Huntsville market has shown the sharpest reversal.

Select Areas 3q 2011

Select Areas 3q 2011

The coastal areas, which had been improving (see blue line above), declined slightly.

Perhaps more important than the absolute number is the fairly dramatic change in direction expressed across each of the measured questions with all measures showing deterioration after several quarters of improvement.

Commercial market participants (the majority of the respondents are from theBirmingham market area) were slightly less positive in their outlook this quarter than last at 53 this quarter vs. 58 last for sales expectations. Price expectations remain weak, at 43 vs 44 last quarter indicating continued pricing pressure in all markets. The rating for credit availability remains poor, at 46 down 1 point from last quarter, a level which indicates expected contraction in credit availability.

North Region

North Alabamashowed a surprising reversal in all scores. The total score of 45, down from 53, an 8 point drop from last quarter, was the largest change of the 4 regions.  This indicates a concern for the national and local economy in the coming quarter. The outlook for theAlabamamarket also dropped to 50. Sales expectations inHuntsvilleare neutral at 50. Inventory is expected to increase with a score of 45. Pricing is expected to be under pressure at 42.

North Central Region

The North Central Region along with the South Coastal region showed the least change of the state’s four geographic areas. The sales score declined 4 points to 54. Inventory, pricing, and credit are all still below the 50 mark at 47, 41 and 39 respectively.

South Central Region

The South Central Region participants outlook for sales declined 9 points to 49.

South Region

The Southern Region sales score declined 5 points to 57 and is now the state’s most optimistic sales area.

About the Alabama Real Estate Confidence Index and Survey:

Over 700 professionals responded to the 3rd quarter 2011 survey which was conducted during the month of June 2011. The survey, conducted by the Alabama Center For Real Estate now has the largest participation of any real estate survey. It provides important market insights.

The ACRE Leadership Council  determined the need for a statewide industry confidence index and this was adopted as the Council’s first initiative. Tom Brander, Council Member, was selected by the Council and Grayson Glaze, ACRE Executive Director, to spearhead and work with the Center to conduct and produce its Alabama Real Estate Confidence Index (ARECI). The Council appreciates everyone who participated.

For further information contact Tom Brander at Tombrander@tombrander.com or Grayson Glaze at gglaze@cba.ua.edu

 

July Alabama Coast Real Estate Sales Steady

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal Areas MLS*: Observations for the Month of July 2011

Dollar sales this month dropped 8% to $75,915,885 from June’s $82,835,113. This is 26% above July last year at $60,463,492 when sales were impacted by the oil spill and the tax credit expiration (Sect A p.2). The 12 month moving average line of sales is turning upwards.

The chart in Section A p.18 has been showing substantial inventory reduction for a year, but not so much from sales as people not listing properties. The reduction in Active listings will probably help the market somewhat. Inventories remain very high. Used inventory is now hovering about 4,000, a full 2,000 below August 2008, but the sales level has also shrunk dramatically. The number of Active listings continues to drop, which is positive (more below).

The 12 month moving average line of unit sales for Used homes had a pronounced upward slope through seven months ago. But with the spill, it had been showing a slight downward trend. Now once again, for the last several months, the line has begun to point up. On a unit basis, sales of all houses declined slightly, down 5% to 376 this month vs. 395 last month, which is 29% up from last year’s 292.

In the under $100,000 price range there has been an unusual pick up in activity over the last four months going from 60-80 sales per month to 100-110 per month. It almost appears that some entity is buying up these lower priced properties?

Used Home sales declined slightly, down 6% to 351 this month vs. 373 last month, which is up 31% from last year’s 267.(Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 25 this month vs 22 last month. The low number of sales of New homes reflects the intense competition from existing, and a virtual shutdown of new construction.

New listings for New homes increased to 51 from 42 in June. Used houses New listings decreased to 691 from 870 in June with net inventory still down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has once again been improving. In July, there were 4,116 Active Used homes, a reduction from 4,524 in June. The New home market, which peaked in July 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 331.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 12 months of inventory for July vs. 13 in June. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 13 months of inventory for July vs. 15 in June. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in July 2008 to 13 months in July. (Sect A p.17).

Average sales price for all homes has been stable for the past year. For New units, prices decreased to $211,221 from $243,712 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices decreased to $201,240 from $207,704 in June.

Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in July was 177 this month vs. 249 last month. Days On Market for Used was 185 this month vs. 170 last month.

TWB 8/13/2011