Baldwin County Sales 2017 In July Up A Remarkable 34% From 2016

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of July 2017

Sales decreased 7% in July to $206,527,230 from June’s outstanding $222,618,471. This is up an impressive 34% from last year’s record of $154,395,353. (Sect A p.2). The 12 month moving average line of sales is headed up substantially. This month’s totals were driven to a large degree by a number of higher end New unit sales in Perdido Key; 14 over $900,000 along with 12 in the $800,000- $900,000 price range.

Inventories continue to drop. Check out the chart on page A-17 to fully appreciate the trend. Note that there are less price range categories for inventories over a year. Now, only the $700,000 and over categories have over a year of inventory. This drop in the upper price level inventories has been very substantial and sustained over the last few months.

In concert with ACRE, The Alabama Center for Real Estate, we have projected expectations for 2017. We use the ACRE provided data for the projections, which differs slightly from the data in this report. The projection for 2017 located here expects projected home sales in 2017 at 6,276, which is a 12.65% over 2016 actual of  5,571. This year through June actual sales are 4% above expectations. 3,312 sales were recorded so far this year which is ahead of the projection of 3,171 by 141 units.  

On a unit basis, sales of all houses were 693 this month vs. last month at 794, which is still well above last year’s healthy level of 627. Used Home sales decreased to 514 this month vs. 639 last month, which is up from last year’s 524 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 179 this month vs 155 last month and compared with 103 last year. New listings for New homes increased to 177 from 125 in June. Used homes New listings decreased to 514 from 639 in June with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has been improving. In July, there were 2,787 Active Used homes, a reduction from 3,330 in June and a new multi year low. New homes, which peaked in July 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sit at 723, and that number has been gradually increasing.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 6 months of inventory in July vs. 9 in June and 11 months last year. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 6 months of inventory in July vs. 7 in June. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in June 2008 to 6 months this July. I had been expecting construction to begin to pick-up in the under $400,000 range, and this has happened to a modest degree.

Average sales price for all homes has begun to show an upwards trend. For New units, average price jumped to  $444,082 from $260,118 last month (see the 1st paragraph). (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices decreased this month, to $247,153 from $285,290 in June. Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in July was 389 vs last month of 176 (due to the aforementioned high priced properties having sold). Days On Market for Used was 125 vs. last month 138. The peak summer selling season seems to be roaring!

TWB 8/13/2017

Advertisement

Alabama Coastal Real Estate for June Continues to Outperform

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of June 2017

Sales dollars decreased 5% in June to $219,531,971 from May’s outstanding $230,077,838. This is up an impressive 24% from last year’s record of $177,240,799. (Sect A p.2). The 12 month moving average line of sales is moving up substantially.

Inventories continue to drop. Check out the chart on page A-17 to fully appreciate the inventory trends. Note that there are less price range categories for inventories over a year. Now, only the $700,000 and over categories have over a year of inventory. Note that this drop in the upper price level inventories has been very substantial and sustained over the last few months.

In concert with ACRE, The Alabama Center for Real Estate, we have projected expectations for 2017. We use the ACRE provided data for the projections, which differs slightly from the data in this report. The projection for 2017 located here expects projected home sales in 2017 at 6,276, which is a 12.65% over 2016 actual of  5,571. This year through May actual sales are 3% above expectations. 2,623 sales were recorded so far this year which is ahead of the projection of 2,550.  

On a unit basis, sales of all houses were 787 this month vs. last month at 800, which is still well above last year’s healthy level of 666. Used Home sales decreased to 632 this month vs. 676 last month, which is up from last year’s 546 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 155 this month vs 124 last month and compared with 120 last year. New listings for New homes decreased to 112 from 204 in May. Used homes New listings decreased to 743 from 850 in May with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has been improving. In June, there were 2,716 Active Used homes, a reduction from 3,306 in May and a new multi year low. New homes, which peaked in June 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sit at 686.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 7 months of inventory in June vs. 9 in May. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 6 months of inventory in June vs. 7 in May. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in May 2008 to 6 months this June. I had been expecting construction to begin to pick-up in the under $400,000 range, and this has happened to a modest degree. Sales have been keeping up however, so we have not seen an increase in inventory.

Average sales price for all homes has begun to show an upwards trend. For New units, average price decreased to  $260,118 from $289,610 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices decreased this month, to $283,566 from $287,228 in May. Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in June was 176 vs last month of 206. Days On Market for Used was 138 vs. last month 133. The peak summer selling season seems to be roaring!

TWB 7/9/2017

Alabama Coastal Real Estate in May Takes Off

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of May 2017

Sales dollars increased a surprising 38% in May to $227,166,434 from April’s slow $164,654,678. This is up a somewhat remarkable 35% from last year’s record of $168,263,418. (Sect A p.2). The 12 month moving average line of sales is moving up substantially.

Inventories continue to drop. Check out the chart on page A-17 to fully appreciate the inventory trends. Note that price ranges in inventories over a year are fewer. Now, only the $600,000 and over categories have over a year of inventory.

In concert with ACRE, The Alabama Center for Real Estate, we have projected expectations for 2017. We use the ACRE provided data for the projections, which differs slightly from the data in this report. The projection for 2017 located here expects projected home sales in 2017 at 6,276, which is a 12.65% over 2016 actual of  5,571. This year through April actual sales are .73% above expectations. 1,938 sales were recorded so far this year which is ahead of the projection of 1,924.  

On a unit basis, sales of all houses were up at 792 this month vs. last month at 622, which is still well above last year’s healthy level of 656. Used Home sales increased to 670 this month vs. 522 last month, which is up from last year’s 557 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 122 this month vs 100 last month and compared with 99 last year. New listings for New homes increased to 201 from 156 in April. Used homes New listings decreased to 821 from 852 in April with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has been improving. In May, there were 2,708 Active Used homes, a reduction from 3,344 in April and a new multi year low. New homes, which peaked in May 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sit at 735.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 7 months of inventory in May vs. 8 in April. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 6 months of inventory in May vs. 7 in April. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in April 2008 to 6 months this May. I had been expecting construction to begin to pick-up in the under $400,000 range, and this has happened to a modest degree. Sales have been keeping up, so we have not seen an increase in inventory.

Average sales price for all homes has begun to show an upwards trend. For New units, average price increased to  $290,464 from $267,306 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices were up this month, to $286,164 from $264,222 in April. Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in May was 206 vs last month of 213. This indicates that some of the older New inventory is being sold. Days On Market for Used was 133 vs. last month 141. With this volatility, it will be interesting to see how the market evolves during the peak summer selling season.

TWB 6/11/2017

Alabama Coastal March Sales Reach Record Levels

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of March 2017

Sales dollars increased a remarkable 82% in March to $205,223,539 from February $112,736,967. This is up 49% from last year’s record of $137,834,831. (Sect A p.2). The 12 month moving average line of sales, has been heading up substantially. When I saw the outstanding results I immediately went to look for problems in the data. The increase was, however, across a number of areas and price ranges and I found no obvious problems.

Sales in most price categories show consistent improvement as do inventories. Check out the chart on page A-17 to fully appreciate the inventory trends. Note that price ranges in inventories over a year are fewer. Now only the $600,000 and over categories have over a year of inventory.

In concert with ACRE, The Alabama Center for Real Estate, we have projected expectations for 2017. We use the ACRE provided data for the projections, which differs slightly from the data in this report. The projection for 2017 located here expected projected home sales in 2017 of 6,276, which is a 12.65% difference from 2016 actual of  5,571. This year through March actual sales are 4% above expectations. 1,415 sales were recorded so far this year which is ahead of the projection of 1,359.  

On a unit basis, sales of all houses were up at 763 this month vs. last month at 438, which is well above last year’s healthy level of 446. Used Home sales decreased to 358 this month vs. 364 last month, which is off from last year’s 592 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 150 this month vs 77 last month and compared with 105 last year. New listings for New homes increased to 185 from 184 in February. Used homes New listings decreased to 874 from 720 in February with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has been consistently improving. In March, there were 2,719 Active Used homes, a reduction from 3,309 in February and a new multi year low. New homes, which peaked in March 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sit at 697.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 7 months of inventory in March vs. 9 in February. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 6 months of inventory in March vs. 7 in February. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in February 2008 to 6 months this March. I had been expecting construction to begin to pick-up in the under $400,000 range, and this has happened. Sales have been keeping up, so we have not seen an increase in inventory.

Average sales price for all homes has begun to show an upwards trend. For New units, average price decreased to  $247,000 from $268,697 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices were up this month, to $274,345 from $254,979 in February. Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in March was 176 vs last month of 196. Days On Market for Used was 144 vs. last month 162. With this very impressive month, it will be interesting to see if the momentum continues through the peak summer selling season.
TWB 4/12/2017

February 2017 Alabama Coastal Real Estate Remains Strong

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of February 2017

Sales dollars decreased 27% in February to $111,762,782 from January $114,127,364. This is up 24% from last year’s record of $106,179,498. (Sect A p.2). The 12 month moving average line of sales, after a pause during the summer months, has been heading up substantially.

Sales in most price categories show consistent improvement as do inventories. Check out the chart on page A-17 to fully appreciate the inventory trends. Note that price ranges in inventories over a year are fewer. Now only the $800,000 and over categories are over a year of inventory.

In concert with ACRE, The Alabama Center for Real Estate, we have projected expectations for 2017. We use the ACRE provided data for the projections, which differs slightly from the data in this report. The projection for 2017 located here expected projected home sales in 2017 of 6,276, which is a 12.65% difference from 2016 actual of  5,571. Full year, thru February actual sales are 9% below expectations. 752 sales were recorded so far which is 71 less than projected and 60 more than 2016.  

On a unit basis, sales of all houses were off at 433 this month vs. last month at 447, which is off from last year’s healthy level of 446. Used Home sales decreased to 358 this month vs. 364 last month, which is off from last year’s 368 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 75 this month vs 83 last month and compared with 78 last year. New listings for New homes increased to 178 from 175 in January. Used homes New listings decreased to 689 from 788 in January with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has been consistently improving. In February, there were 2,727 Active Used homes, a reduction from 3,109 in January and a new multi year low. New homes, which peaked in February 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sit at 681.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 7 months of inventory in February vs. 8 in January. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 6 months of inventory in February vs. 7 in January. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in January 2008 to 7 months this February. I have been expecting construction to begin to pick-up in the under $400,000 range, and this has happened. Sales have been keeping up, so we have not seen an increase in inventory.

Average sales price for all homes has begun to show an upwards trend. For New units, average price increased to  $270,706 from $244,689 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices were off this month, to $255,474 from $257,742 in January. Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in February was 196 vs last month of 201. Days On Market for Used was 162 vs. last month 158. In my opinion, the results point to a strong upcoming year.        
TWB 3/11/2017

Coastal Alabama Wraps Up 2016 In Great Style

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of December 2016

Sales dollars increased 21% in December to $155,437,713 from November $128,478,837. This is up 23% from last year’s record level of $126,001,010. (Sect A p.2). The 12 month moving average line of sales, after a pause during the summer months, has been heading substantially up.

Full Year summary:

	All units	New units	Used Units	Avg New Price	Avg Used Price	Avg All price	Total dollars
2016	6723	1124	5598	$249,357	$255,065	$254,160	$1,712,999,817
2015	6324	823	5501	$250,329	$242,023	$243,098	$1,542,057,978
% ∆	6.31%	36.57%	1.76%	-0.39%	5.39%	4.55%	11.09%

Sales in most price categories show consistent improvement as do inventories. Check out the chart on page A-17 to fully appreciate the inventory trends. Still, inventory remains high, but improving, for anything over $500,000. Note that price ranges with inventories over a year are fewer, for instance, the price ranges of $600,000-$800,000 are at just 10-11 months. With the $500,000-$600,000 at 14 months. Amazingly, the over $900,000 category is now at 23 months with 156 active and 9 sold this month.

In concert with ACRE, The Alabama Center for Real Estate, we have projected expectations for 2016. We use the ACRE provided data for the projections, which differs slightly from the data in this report. The projection for 2016 located here expected projected home sales in 2016 of 5,139, which is a -1.74% difference from 2015 actual of  5,230. Full year actual sales are 8% above expectations. 5571 sales were recorded for the year which is 432 more than projected and 341 more than 2015.  New projections for 2017 will be out once all the December results are available (statewide).

On a unit basis, sales of all houses were up 72 at 559 this month vs. last month at 487, which is up from last year’s healthy level of 491. Used Home sales increased to 457 this month vs. 409 last month, which is up from last year’s 423 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 102 this month vs 78 last month and compared with 68 last year. New listings for New homes decreased to 130 from 137 in November. Used homes New listings decreased to 338 from 530 in November with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has been consistently improving. In December, there were 2,676 Active Used homes, a reduction from 3,403 in November and a new multi year low. New homes, which peaked in December 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sit at 609.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 7 months of inventory in December vs. 8 in November. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 6 months of inventory in December vs. 7 in November. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in November 2008 to 6 months this December. I have been expecting construction to begin to pick-up in the under $400,000 range, and this has happened. Sales have been keeping up, so we have not seen an increase in inventory.

Average sales price for all homes has been static for the past year. For New units, average price increased to  $268,115 from $258,127 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices were up this month, to $280,284 from $264,902 in November. Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in December was 183 vs last month of 172. Days On Market for Used was 156 vs. last month 166. In my opinion, the results point to a strong upcoming year.         

TWB 1/15/2017

August Baldwin Coastal Real Estate Up From Last Year

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of August 2016

Sales dollars increased 11% in August to $169,814,271 from July $153,027,746. This is 36% up from August last year’s record level at $124,886,172. (Sect A p.2). The jump was fueled by an increase in the $700,000 and over $900,000 price ranges, in other words the upper end had a much healthier than expected month. Incidentally, the increase was predominantly in the Orange Beach area. The 12 month moving average line of sales, after a pause of three months, appears to be resuming its upward trend. Lack of new construction now seems to be depressing sales somewhat. Inventories are continuing to trend down very consistently.

Sales in most price categories show consistent improvement. Inventories are also improving. Check out the chart on page A-17 to fully appreciate the inventory trends. Still, inventory remains high, but improving, at over a year for anything over $500,000.

In concert with ACRE, The Alabama Center for Real Estate, we have projected expectations for 2016. We use the ACRE provided data for the projections, which differs slightly from the data in this report. The projection for 2016 located here expects projected home sales in 2016 of 5,139, which is a -1.74% difference from 2015 actual of  5,230. Year to date through August actual sales are 5.5% above expectations. 194 more units were sold through August than the 3,561 projected.

On a unit basis, sales of all houses were off 1 at 622 this month vs. last month at 623, which is up from last year’s healthy level of 556. Used Home sales increased to 526 this month vs. 521 last month, which is up from last year’s 489 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 96 this month vs 102 last month and compared with 67 last year. New listings for New homes increased to 136 from 117 in July. Used homes New listings increased to 751 from 676 in July with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has been consistently improving. In August, there were 3,320 Active Used homes, a reduction from 3,707 in July and a new multi year low. New homes, which peaked in August 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sit at 588.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 7 months of inventory in August vs. 8 in July. The Absorption rate for Used homes was also 7 months of inventory in August vs. 8 in July. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in July 2008 to 7 months this August. The inventory of homes in the upper price range remains high with homes priced $500,000 and over at a year’s supply, but even here we are seeing improvement. I have been expecting construction to begin to pick-up in the under $400,000 range, and we have seen a pick-up in New homes, New listings where sales seem to be keeping up so net inventory of new home remains low in these price ranges.

Average sales price for all homes has been static for the past year. For New units, average price increased to  $258,309 from $239,135 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices increased to $275,697 from $246,902 in July. Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in August was 161 vs last month of 163. Days On Market for Used was 158 compared to last month 165.

TWB 9/10/2016

Alabama Coastal Real Estate Sales Strong in July

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of July 2016

Sales dollars decreased 13% in July to $152,323,846 from June $174,282,839. This is 2% off July last year’s record level at $155,766,731. (Sect A p.2). The 12 month moving average line of sales, after a pause of three months, appears to be resuming its upward trend. Lack of new construction now seems to be depressing sales somewhat. Inventories are continuing to trend down very consistently. But, in spite of reducing inventories and generally healthy sales levels, average prices look fairly flat.

Sales in most price categories show consistent improvement. Inventories are also improving. Check out the chart on page A-17 to fully appreciate the inventory trends. Still, inventory remains high, but improving, at over a year for anything over $500,000.

In concert with ACRE, The Alabama Center for Real Estate, we have projected expectations for 2016. We use the ACRE provided data for the projections, which differs slightly from the data in this report. The projection for 2016 located here expects projected home sales in 2016 of 5,139, which is a -1.74% difference from 2015 actual of  5,230. Year to date through July actual sales are 4.6% above expectations. 141 more units were sold through July than the 3,090 projected.

On a unit basis, sales of all houses were off at 620 this month vs. last month at 658, which is off from last year’s healthy level of 624. Used Home sales decreased to 518 this month vs. 540 last month, which is off from last year’s 540 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 102 this month vs 118 last month and compared with 84 last year. New listings for New homes decreased to 111 from 148 in June. Used homes New listings declined to 665 from 769 in June with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has been consistently  improving. In July, there were 3,218 Active Used homes, a reduction from 3,862 in June and a new multi year low. New homes, which peaked in July 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sit at 551.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 7 months of inventory in July vs. 8 in June. The Absorption rate for Used homes was also 7 months of inventory in July vs. 9 in June. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in June 2008 to 7 months this July. The inventory of homes in the upper price range remains high with homes priced $500,000 and over at a year’s supply, but even here we are seeing improvement. I have been expecting construction to begin to pick-up in the under $400,000 range, and we have seen a pick-up in New homes, New listings where sales seem to be keeping up so net inventory of new home remains low in these price ranges.

Average sales price for all homes has been static for the past year. For New units, average price decreased to  $239,135 from $271,759 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices decreased to $246,973 from $263,362 in June. Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in July was 163 vs last month of 167. Days On Market for Used was 165 compared to last month 141.
TWB 8/14/2016

Alabama Coastal Real Estate Sales Continue To Set New Records

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of June 2016

Sales dollars increased a better than expected 4% in June to a new record high of $172,625,514 from May $166,243,265. This is 5% better than June last year at $164,150,466. (Sect A p.2). The 12 month moving average line of sales, after a pause of three months, appears to be resuming its upward trend. Lack of new construction now seems to be depressing sales somewhat. Inventories are continuing to trend down very consistently. But, in spite of reducing inventories and generally healthy sales levels, average prices look fairly flat.

Sales in most price categories show consistent improvement. Inventories are also improving. Check out the chart on page A-17 to fully appreciate the inventory trends. Still, inventory remains high, but improving, at over a year for anything over $500,000.

In concert with ACRE, The Alabama Center for Real Estate, we have projected expectations for 2016. We use the ACRE provided data for the projections, which differs slightly from the data in this report. The projection for 2016 located here expects projected home sales in 2016 of 5,139, which is a -1.74% difference from 2015 actual of  5,230. Year to date through May actual sales are 1% above expectations. 26 more units were sold year to date than projected.

On a unit basis, sales of all houses were up at 649 this month vs. last month at 651, which is up from last year’s healthy level of 646. Used Home sales decreased 4% to 533 this month vs. 553 last month, which is off 6% from last year’s 565 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 116 this month vs 98 last month and compared with 81 last year. New listings for New homes decreased to 144 from 170 in May. Used homes New listings declined to 733 from 803 in May with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has been consistently  improving. In June, there were 3,249 Active Used homes, a reduction from 3,834 in May and a new multi year low. New homes, which peaked in June 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sit at 530.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 7 months of inventory in June vs. 8 in May. The Absorption rate for Used homes was also 7 months of inventory in June vs. 8 in May. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in May 2008 to 7 months this June. The inventory of homes in the upper price range remains high with homes priced $500,000 and over at a year’s supply, but even here we are seeing improvement. I have been expecting construction to begin to pick-up in the under $400,000 range, and we have seen a pick-up in New homes, New listings where sales seem to be keeping up so net inventory of new home remains low in these price ranges.

Average sales price for all homes has been static for the past year. For New units, average price increased to  $271,548 from $255,080 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices increased to $264,777 from $255,417 in May. Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in June was 167 vs last month of 161. Days On Market for Used was 141 compared to last month 154.

TWB 7/9/2016

May Alabama Coastal Real Estate Back To Record Sales Levels

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of May 2016

Sales dollars increased a better than expected 14% in May to a new record high of $165,625,265 from April $145,567,700. This is 4% better than  May last year at $158,900,756, which was the prior monthly record. (Sect A p.2). The 12 month moving average line of sales, which had continued to point up steadily for three years, is flattening. Lack of new construction now seems to be depressing sales somewhat. Inventories are continuing to trend down very consistently. But, in spite of reducing inventories and generally healthy sales levels, average prices look fairly flat.

Sales in most price categories show consistent improvement. Inventories are also improving. Check out the chart on page A-17 to fully appreciate the inventory trends. Still, inventory remains high at over a year for anything over $500,000.

In concert with ACRE, The Alabama Center for Real Estate, we have projected expectations for 2016. We use the ACRE provided data for the projections, which differs slightly from the data in this report. The projection for 2016 located here expects projected home sales in 2016 of 5,139, which is a -1.74% difference from 2015 actual of  5,230. Year to date through April actual sales are 4% above expectations. 59 more units were sold year to date than projected.

On a unit basis, sales of all houses were up at 649 this month vs. last month at 588, which is up from last year’s healthy level of 612. Used Home sales increased 10% to 552 this month vs. 501 last month, which is up 5% from last year’s 527 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 97 this month vs 87 last month and compared with 85 last year. New listings for New homes increased to 177 from 135 in April. Used homes New listings declined to 801 from 843 in April with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has been consistently  improving. In May, there were 3,283 Active Used homes, a reduction from 3,929 in April and a new multi year low. New homes, which peaked in May 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sit at 503.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 7 months of inventory in May vs. 8 in April. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 7 months of inventory in May vs. 9 in April. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in April 2008 to 7 months this May. The inventory of homes in the upper price range remains high with homes priced $500,000 and over at a year’s supply, but even here we are seeing improvement. I have been expecting construction to begin to pick-up in the under $400,000 range, and we have seen a pick-up in New homes, New listings where sales seem to be keeping up so net inventory of new home remains low in these price ranges.

Average sales price for all homes has been static for the past year. For New units, price increased to  $254,946 from $235,342 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices increased to $255,245 from $249,687 in April. Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in May was 161 vs last month of 165. Days On Market for Used was 154 compared to last month 167.
TWB 6/11/2016