Birmingham May Real Estate Sales Resume Upswing

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for May 2017

May saw a substantial increase (23%) in dollar sales from April. Sales were slightly lower in units and slightly higher in dollars than last year, which was very robust. The next few months should show us a more consistent pattern.  Prices are modestly increasing. Total dollar sales for May were $421,269,944 up 3% from $409,254,772 last year, and up 23% from last month at $342,710,819.

Total Unit sales were down 4% at 1,857 in May from 1,943 last year and off by 17% compared with 1,585 in April. New sales were down 17 at 163 homes this month, vs. 180 in April, and off by 13 from 176  last year. The low inventory level of new homes suggests a good environment for builders. Used sales were 1,694 homes in May, up 21% from 1,404 last month, and off by 4% from 1,767 last year (Sect E p.3).

ACRE numbers are slightly different from those we report. For ACRE, our month by month 2017 forecast can be seen here: ACRE. For Birmingham, the full year projection for 2017 = 15,238, a 3.6% difference from 2016 actual of 14,705. The cumulative error is minus 2% for the year; that is actuals are behind projections of 4,451 through April, at 4,440 actual thru April. Check the link to see when the May numbers are posted.

Total inventory is slightly higher this month at 8,635 vs. last month at 8,126 and less than 9,407 last year. (Sect C p.1). Active New listings decreased to 999 in May from 1,033 in April (Sect E p.3). Absorption rate for New homes is at 6 months supply this month, which is less than 7 months last year. (Sect E p.3). The New homes have normal inventory levels in the 4-8 month range depending on area and price range. (Sect C p.1).

Absorption for Used homes in May shows 5 months, which is less than the 6 last year. Used Active listings at 7,636 are up from last month of 7,093, and less than 8,252 last year (Sect E p.3). Inventory levels have continued to trend down from prior years. Market performance is highly area specific, so check the individual area charts. For instance, Mountain Brook has between 1 and 6 months of inventory, 4 months overall. There are a number of MLS areas, particularly those known as the “over the mountain” communities, showing similarly low levels, including Homewood, which has 3 months of inventory.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 205 compared with last month at 198. The Used homes DOM was 107 in May vs 104 last month, (Sect A p.18). Average sales price for Sold New homes increased to $305,046 from $285,446 last month (Sect A p2). Over a several month period prices seem to be quite unchanged. Average sales price for Sold Used was $219,331 this month compared to $207,297 last month. (Sect A p2). Given the general robustness of sales prices on average seem quite stable, not yet increasing by much.

After a brief pause last month sales seem to be back on the upswing, It will be interesting to see how sales unfold over the next few months..

TWB 6/11/2017  

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Birmingham April Real Estate Sales Moderate Slightly

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for April 2017

April saw a surprising reversal of the dramatic increase we saw last month. We saw a similar increase/decrease pattern on the Alabama coast for the last two months as well. Could it be related to the volatile political situation? Or is it just something random? The next few months should show us.  Prices seem to be modestly increasing. Total dollar sales for April were $332,399,621 off 2% from $339,397,305 last year, and off 5% from last month at $348,804,968.

Total Unit sales were off 7% at 1,524 in April from 1,636 last year and off by 11% compared with 1,709 in March. New sales were up at 164 homes this month, vs. 160 in March, and up by 18 from 146  last year. The low inventory level of new homes suggests a good environment for builders, and prices have begun to show a more solid uptrend. Used sales were 1,360 homes in April, off 12% from 1,549 last month, and off by 9% from 1,490 last year (Sect E p.3).

ACRE numbers are slightly different from those we report. For ACRE, our month by month 2017 forecast can be seen here: ACRE. For Birmingham, the full year projection for 2017 = 15,238, a 3.6% difference from 2016 actual of 14,705. The cumulative error is minus 1% for the year; that is actuals are behind projections of 3,200 through April, at 3,162 actual thru March. Check the link to see when the April numbers are posted.

Total inventory is slightly higher this month at 8,484 vs. last month at 7,832 and less than 9,178 last year. (Sect C p.1). Active New listings decreased to 1,000 in April from 1,048 in March (Sect E p.3). Absorption rate for New homes is at 6 months supply this month, which is less than 7 months last year. (Sect E p.3). The New homes have normal inventory levels in the 4-8 month range depending on area and price range. (Sect C p.1).

Absorption for Used homes in April shows 5 months, which is less than the 6 last year. Used Active listings at 7,484 are up from last month of 6,784, and less than 8,105 last year (Sect E p.3). Inventory levels have continued to trend down from prior years. Market performance is highly area specific, so check the individual area charts. For instance, Mountain Brook has between 1 and 6 months of inventory, 4 months overall. There are a number of MLS areas, particularly those known as the “over the mountain” communities, showing similarly low levels, including Homewood, which has 4 months of inventory.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 198 compared with last month at 239. The Used homes DOM was 104 in April vs 115 last month, (Sect A p.18). Average sales price for Sold New homes increased to $292,961 from $275,131 last month (Sect A p2). Over a several month period prices seem to be quite unchanged. Average sales price for Sold Used was $209,084 this month compared to $196,762 last month. (Sect A p2).

It will be interesting to see how sales unfold over the next few months..

TWB 5/13/2017  

April Alabama Coastal Sales Take a Pause

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of April 2017

Sales dollars surprisingly decreased 21% in April to $162,333,926 from March’s high  of  $206,329,050. This is still up 10% from last year’s record of $147,415,100. (Sect A p.2). The 12 month moving average line of sales has been heading up substantially. We saw a similar increase/decrease pattern in Birmingham for the last two months as well. Could it be related to the volatile political situation? Or is it just something random? The next few months should show us.

Inventories continue to drop noticeably. Check out the chart on page A-17 to fully appreciate the inventory trends. Note that price ranges in inventories over a year are fewer. Now only the $600,000 and over categories have over a year of inventory.

In concert with ACRE, The Alabama Center for Real Estate, we have projected expectations for 2017. We use the ACRE provided data for the projections, which differs slightly from the data in this report. The projection for 2017 located here expects projected home sales in 2017 at 6,276, which is a 12.65% over 2016 actual of  5,571. This year through April actual sales are .75% above expectations. 1,938 sales were recorded so far this year which is ahead of the projection of 1,924.  

On a unit basis, sales of all houses were off at 617 this month vs. last month at 768, which is still well above last year’s healthy level of 594. Used Home sales decreased to 518 this month vs. 614 last month, which is up from last year’s 507 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 99 this month vs 154 last month and compared with 87 last year. New listings for New homes decreased to 155 from 186 in March. Used homes New listings decreased to 831 from 895 in March with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has been consistently improving. In April, there were 2,793 Active Used homes, a reduction from 3,296 in March and a new multi year low. New homes, which peaked in April 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sit at 710.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 7 months of inventory in April vs. 8 in March. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 6 months of inventory in April vs. 7 in March. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in March 2008 to 6 months this April. I had been expecting construction to begin to pick-up in the under $400,000 range, and this has happened to a modest degree. Sales have been keeping up, so we have not seen an increase in inventory.

Average sales price for all homes has begun to show an upwards trend. For New units, average price increased to  $264,897 from $245,230 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices were off this month, to $262,759 from $274,534 in March. Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in April was 213 vs last month of 176. This indicates that some of the older New inventory is being sold, a good thing. Days On Market for Used was 141 vs. last month 144. With this volatility, it will be interesting to see how the market evolves during the peak summer selling season.

TWB 5/13/2017

Birmingham Area Sales Accelerate In March

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for March 2017

March saw an acceleration of the uptick in dollar and unit sales over last year.  Prices seem to be modestly increasing. Total dollar sales for March were $335,608,193 up 15% from $291,558,899 last year, and up 40% from last month at $239,312,908.

Total Unit sales were up 6% at 1,629 in March from 1,530 last year and up by 35% compared with 1,204 in February. New sales were off at 150 homes this month, vs. 155 in February, and off by 30 from 175 last year. The low inventory level of new homes suggests a good environment for builders, and prices have begun to show a more solid uptrend. Used sales were 1,479 homes in March, up 41% from 1,049 last month, and up by 9% from 1,355 last year (Sect E p.3).

ACRE numbers are slightly different from those we report. For ACRE, our month by month 2017 forecast can be seen here: ACRE. For Birmingham, the full year projection for 2017 = 15,238, a 3.6% difference from 2016 actual of 14,705. The cumulative error is minus 1% for the year; that is actuals are behind projections of 3,200 through March, at 3,162 actual thru March.

Total inventory is slightly higher this month at 8,150 vs. last month at 7,851 and less than 9,313 last year. (Sect C p.1). Active New listings decreased to 997 in March from 1,067 in February (Sect E p.3). Absorption rate for New homes is at 6 months supply this month, which is less than 7 months last year. (Sect E p.3). The New homes have normal inventory levels in the 4-8 month range depending on area and price range. (Sect C p.1).

Absorption for Used homes in March shows 5 months, which is less than the 6 last year. Used Active listings at 7,153 are up from last month of 6,784, and less than 8,228 last year (Sect E p.3). Inventory levels have continued to trend down from prior years. Market performance is highly area specific, so check the individual area charts. For instance, Mountain Brook has between 1 and 6 months of inventory, 4 months overall, except in the $5-$600,000 and over $900,000 category, which each have 6 months of inventory. In the over $900,000 price range there were 40 homes, with 9 sold in that price range last month. There are a number of MLS areas, particularly those known as the “over the mountain” communities, showing similarly low levels, including Homewood, which has 4 months of inventory.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 239 compared with last month at 197. The Used homes DOM was 115 in March vs 125 last month, (Sect A p.18). Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $276,271 from $288,821 last month (Sect A p2). Over a several month period prices seem to be increasing. Average sales price for Sold Used was $198,896 this month compared to $185,458 last month. (Sect A p2).

All in all, the market continues to look quite healthy.
TWB 4/12/2017  

Alabama Coastal March Sales Reach Record Levels

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of March 2017

Sales dollars increased a remarkable 82% in March to $205,223,539 from February $112,736,967. This is up 49% from last year’s record of $137,834,831. (Sect A p.2). The 12 month moving average line of sales, has been heading up substantially. When I saw the outstanding results I immediately went to look for problems in the data. The increase was, however, across a number of areas and price ranges and I found no obvious problems.

Sales in most price categories show consistent improvement as do inventories. Check out the chart on page A-17 to fully appreciate the inventory trends. Note that price ranges in inventories over a year are fewer. Now only the $600,000 and over categories have over a year of inventory.

In concert with ACRE, The Alabama Center for Real Estate, we have projected expectations for 2017. We use the ACRE provided data for the projections, which differs slightly from the data in this report. The projection for 2017 located here expected projected home sales in 2017 of 6,276, which is a 12.65% difference from 2016 actual of  5,571. This year through March actual sales are 4% above expectations. 1,415 sales were recorded so far this year which is ahead of the projection of 1,359.  

On a unit basis, sales of all houses were up at 763 this month vs. last month at 438, which is well above last year’s healthy level of 446. Used Home sales decreased to 358 this month vs. 364 last month, which is off from last year’s 592 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 150 this month vs 77 last month and compared with 105 last year. New listings for New homes increased to 185 from 184 in February. Used homes New listings decreased to 874 from 720 in February with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has been consistently improving. In March, there were 2,719 Active Used homes, a reduction from 3,309 in February and a new multi year low. New homes, which peaked in March 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sit at 697.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 7 months of inventory in March vs. 9 in February. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 6 months of inventory in March vs. 7 in February. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in February 2008 to 6 months this March. I had been expecting construction to begin to pick-up in the under $400,000 range, and this has happened. Sales have been keeping up, so we have not seen an increase in inventory.

Average sales price for all homes has begun to show an upwards trend. For New units, average price decreased to  $247,000 from $268,697 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices were up this month, to $274,345 from $254,979 in February. Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in March was 176 vs last month of 196. Days On Market for Used was 144 vs. last month 162. With this very impressive month, it will be interesting to see if the momentum continues through the peak summer selling season.
TWB 4/12/2017

Area home sales rise in March, but prices slip, Realtors group says – Business News from The Birmingham News – al.com

Here is a summary of the Realtors report for March From the Birmingham News:

Area home sales rise in March, but prices slip, Realtors group says: Posted by Dawn Kent: Birmingham News April 17, 2009 10:18 AM

Metro area home sales rose 18 percent in March compared to February, the Birmingham Association of Realtors reported today.

Area home sales totaled 854 last month, compared to 725 in February. In the year-over-year comparison, sales slid 27 percent from March 2008’s total of 1,162, but in the current downturn, month-to-month comparisons have taken on greater significance.

Both the average and median sold prices dropped from the year-ago mark. Last month’s average price was $160,929, an 18 percent fall from March 2008. Meanwhile, the median price fell 14 percent from a year ago to $159,900 last month.

via Area home sales rise in March, but prices slip, Realtors group says – Business News from The Birmingham News – al.com.

The board of Realtors, note a greater month to month increase than our report, 9% vs. 18% not sure exactly how, it could be due to taking that data somewhat later than our report this month and that their report does not recalculate the prior month data to account for late reported sales. The year to year decrease is within 2%. The MLS report and our report incorporate slightly different areas so our gross numbers are higher. Both reporting methods are accurate, just slightly different!

Weak start to spring Real Estate market in Huntsville

Huntsville/North Alabama Area MLS Observations Huntsville, Alabama Residential Real Estate Market February 2009:

After a modest downtick in January the Huntsville, North Alabama market had a very modest uptick in February. This is a concern since February normally shows a pronounced increase as a harbinger of spring. February total dollar sales were $91,189,468, 13%, higher than last month’s $80,666,406, and 33% below last year’s level of $136,832,110 (Section A Page 4).

Total unit sales increased from 481 in January to 574 in February, an increase of 93 units.

New sales increased from 111 homes last month to 116 this month, an increase of 5.

Used sales increased from 370 homes last month to 458 this month, an increase of 88 (Sect E Page 3).

The Used market has begun to show a slight decrease in inventory (absolute numbers). Used homes are 9.7 months of inventory in all price ranges, which is roughly equal to last month’s 9.9 months. The inventory situation remains challenged in the higher price ranges. Used homes over $200,000 are now at over 14 months of inventory, and in some price ranges as much as 4 years of inventory. This situation has not materially changed over the last few months. New houses over $300,000 are almost a year and in some price ranges over three years of inventory. (Page E-1). Absolute numbers of Active listings have been moderating slightly for a few months. There still remain 1,781 New homes for sale, a slightly less than double what would have been normal prior to 2006 See chart Page C-1. I have noted on the web site what seems to be a large number of housing permits being issued, given the market conditions.

Total Active listings decreased by 4.5% this month, 8,116 compared to January, 7,751 and 1% less than February 2008, 7,837 (Chart section A page 4 and Page E-3). New houses New listings ran 2.6 times the rate of sales (Section B Page 1).

Active New listings decreased from 1,869 last month to 1,781 this month, down 88 (Page E-3).

Active Used listings decreased from 6,247 last month to 5,970 this month, down 277 (Page E-3).

We believe that there is an increasing amount of “shadow inventory” in both the New and Used market places i.e.; houses held off the market for various reasons, but that really are for sale. This could result in higher spring new listings and inventories as these properties come to market.

As mentioned above, we provide a link to free census department data on our blog site. Under data sources in the right column, the high number of building permits relative to sales and inventory is highlighted. It is unusual in any market to see months of supply for New houses exceeding Used supply. Huntsville city shows 44 permits for the month of January. Given the high number of homes for sale (over 7,500), the BRAC realignment will not cure the market, particularly in light of other employment problems. I don’t get the continued new construction? What banks are funding construction?

Absorption for New homes remained at 11.1 months of inventory in February vs. 11.1 last month. This is still a deterioration of 1.6 months from last year at this time. See Section E page 8. Absorption for Used homes was 9.7 months of inventory in February vs. 9.9 last month. This is a deterioration of 2.6 months from last year’s level at this time see Section E pg 8.

Average Days on Market for Sold New houses was 120 days vs. 87 days last month, with Used at 124 vs. 123 last month. (See Section A Page 18).

Average sales price for Sold New homes was $237,481 vs. $245,105 last month. (Chart Sect A Page 2)

Average sales price for Sold Used homes was $138,956 vs. $144,486 last month. (Chart Sect A Page 2)

The mix of higher and lower priced homes is jumping around quite a bit so it’s hard to read too much into the average prices.

TWB 3/14/09*All references to last month numbers are revised, to pick up late entries (made after our prior publication date) to the MLS system.

Shelby County Single Family Building Permits

Just added, here.
I’ll keep adding other areas as I have time. I expect that I’ll update these monthly as the data is released.

January 2009 Huntsville Area Sales Suffer 10% Drop

Huntsville/North Alabama Area MLS: Observations Huntsville, Alabama Residential Real Estate Market January 2009:

After the modest uptick in December the Huntsville, North Alabama market had only a modest downtick in January. This is actually good news since January is normally a down month, and the lowest sales of the year. Other markets, such as Birmingham, showed much worse percentage declines. January total dollar sales were $77,485,316, 10%, lower than last month’s $86,324,637, and 32% below last year’s level of ($114,740,304) (Section A Page 4).

Total unit sales declined from 574 in December to 468 in January a decrease of 106 units.

New sales declined from 126 homes last month to 101 this month a decrease of 25.

Used sales declined from 448 homes last month to 367 this month, a decrease of 81 (Sect E Page 3).

The Used market has begun to show a slight decrease in inventory. Used homes are 9.4 months of inventory in all price ranges. The inventory situation remains challenged in the higher price ranges Used homes over $200,000 are now are over 14 months of inventory, and in some price ranges as much as 4 years of inventory. New houses over $300,000 are almost a year and in some price ranges over three years of inventory. (Page E-1). Absolute numbers of Active listings have been moderating slightly for a few months. There still remain 1,736 New homes for sale, a bit less than double what would have been normal prior to 2006 See chart Page C-1.

Total Active listings decreased by 3% this month (7,640) compared to January of 2008, (7,881) and 7% less than Decembers 8,190 (Chart section A page 4 and Page E-3). New houses New listings ran 3.6 times the rate of sales (Section B Page 1).

Active New listings decreased from 2,016 last month to 1,736 this month, down 280 (Page E-3).

Active Used listings decreased from 6,174 last month to 5,904 this month, down 270 (Page E-3).

We believe that there is an increasing amount of “shadow inventory” in both the New and Used market places i.e.; houses held off the market for various reasons, but that really are for sale. This could result in higher spring new listings and inventories as these properties come to market.

In Huntsville city we see at least 10 months worth of inventory of New homes and yet, we continue to see fairly high numbers of building permits issued. In December, for instance there were 63 single family permits issued in Huntsville city alone (up from 48 in November), compared with 50 for the same period last year. We provide a link to this free census department data on our Blog site under data sources in the right column. It is unusual to see months of supply for New houses exceeding Used supply. Given the high number of homes for sale (over 7,500), the BRAC realignment will not cure the market, particularly in light of other employment problems. I don’t get the continued new building? What banks are funding construction?

Absorption for New homes was 10.4 months of inventory in January vs. 11.7 last month. This is still a deterioration of .5 month from last year at this time. See Section E page 8. Absorption for Used homes was 9.4 months of inventory in January vs. 9.6 last month. This is a deterioration of 2.5 months from last year’s level at this time see Section E pg 8.

Average Days on Market for Sold New houses was 87 days vs. 102 days last month, with Used at 123 vs. 102 last month. (See Section A Page 18).

Average sales price for Sold New homes was $250,671 vs. $229,733 last month. (Chart Sect A Page 2)

Average sales price for Sold Used homes was $143,329 vs. $128,322 last month. (Chart Sect A Page 2)

The mix of higher and lower priced homes is jumping around quite a bit so it’s hard to read too much into the average prices.

TWB 2/14/09*All references to last month numbers are revised, to pick up late entries (made after our prior publication date) to the MLS system.

Birmingham home sales fall in October as economic fears rise – al.com

The Birmingham News reported on the MLS press release today as follows.

Average Alabama sales price drops to $146,169

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

RUSSELL HUBBARD News staff writer

Birmingham-area home sales fell 30 percent in October compared to the same month in 2007, a drop that real estate experts said reflects turmoil on Wall Street and concerns about a faltering economy.

via Birmingham home sales fall in October as economic fears rise – al.com

The Birmingham News noted our article as follows:

The drop recorded by the Birmingham Association of Realtors was better than the 36 percent decrease forecast last week in the Rudulph/Brander Real Estate report, which is based on preliminary statistics. Tom Brander, the author of that report, also said October home sales were dragged down by swooning stocks and falling consumer confidence.

I’d like to note that we also reported exactly the same drop in unit sales, 30%. We also reported the 36% drop in dollar sales, which the MLS release makes no reference to. We also noted the reduction in inventory. Our full release for October is here. The reduction in average sales price MLS reports accounts for, and agrees with the drop in total dollar sales. Each group, MLS, ACRE, And Rudulph/Brander, works with the same data and produces consist ant statistics, which may differ in actual counts such as sales and inventory but the trends are consist ant with each group.