I think that things are still not looking too good as I told Dawn for this article:
Dawn Kent reported today in the (click for full story) Birmingham News:
But it’s too early to say that the nation’s foreclosure crisis is nearing an end. While many of the filings have been tied to poor lending practices to home buyers that weren’t prepared for such responsibility, there are fears that continuing job losses will trigger a new wave of foreclosures among people who have good credit.
Local real estate expert Tom Brander, who compiles a monthly report on home sales, says the month-to-month upticks being seen throughout the spring happen every year, thanks to the seasonal nature of the industry.
To determine whether the local market’s slide is leveling off, he looks at the 12-month moving average on total sales in terms of dollars, and so far, that line is still pointing down.
“We are not reaching anywhere close to previous years and in fact we are continuing to slide, in terms of total dollar volumes and transaction volumes of houses being bought,” he said.
Brander’s May home sales report for the area showed that dollar sales were up 18.6 percent, from $169.7 million in April to $201.2 million in May. But May’s total is still off 33.7 percent from May 2008.
Meanwhile, the Birmingham Association of Realtors’ May report shows home sales rose 8 percent from April to 959 residences sold. But that figure is down 25 percent from a year ago.
Brookings – Quality. Independence. Impact..(click for article)
This Brookings study/map shows Birmingham as one of the 20 strongest housing price markets in the US!
Brookings chart
Huntsville Times (click for whole story) Real estate news and notes from the week:Here’s where both the local Realtor’s association and Brander agree: The bulk of current sales are for lower-priced, used homes. Indeed, in Madison County alone, more than 85 percent of the homes sold in May were under $300,000, as more first-time buyers take advantage of the tax credit to buy homes in their price range. Higher-priced homes typically are purchased by homeowners who are “moving up” into a larger, more expensive home and have equity in their first home.
Monday’s report on home sales was good news to local Realtors, who saw a 26 percent jump in home sales between April and May. One month does not a trend make, but any uptick is good news in a national market that continues to languish.
One real estate expert agrees the Huntsville market is faring better than others, but he also offers a cautionary note.
Tom Brander, a principal in Birmingham-based Rudulph/Brander Real Estate Statistical Reports (tombrander.com), collects data from multiple-listing services throughout Alabama, including the Huntsville-area MLS, which includes eight counties in North Alabama and a small part of southern central Tennessee. Rudulph/Brander supplies market data to the banking and building industries.
Brander says he’s surprised by the level of new home construction going on in the market, particularly in Madison County, when inventory levels remain high. According to the Huntsville Area Association of Realtors, 111 new homes were sold in Madison County last month; builders pulled permits for 187 new homes (reported by the Huntsville/Madison County Builders Association), making the construction rate for new homes about 1.7 times that of the sales rate.
Brander’s numbers differ slightly: He reports 82 new homes sold in Madison County, making the construction rate about 2.3 times the sales rate.
Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for May 2009
May sales were so-so. Sales increased from April, which always happens. Dollar sales were up 18.6% to $201,231,668 in May vs. $169,689,072 in April. That is off 33.7% from last May ($303,650,067). The first thing I look at every month is how the twelve month moving average line on the total dollar sales chart is looking. I’ll start feeling positive when it stops pointing down. So far there is no sign of that happening.
May 2009 Birmingham Overall Sales Dollars
Total unit sales improved by 3% to 1,151 in May from 1,114 in April, an increase of 37. This is a 26% decline from May 2008 (1,556). New sales deteriorated 12% to 157 homes this month from 178 in April, a drop of 21 units. Used sales improved 6% to 994 homes in May from 936 last month, an increase of 58 (sect E page 3).
Birmingham May 2009 Sales Dollars By Month
A bit of good news: total inventory is down 16% from last year at this time at 12,917 vs. 15,429. Contrast this 16% reduction in inventory with the 34% reduction in sales on a comparable month basis. The drop in sales vs. the lesser drop in inventory is not a good sign. Active New listings decreased to 1.953 in May from 2,306 in April, a decline of 353 units (E-3). While it seems that there are a low number of housing permits in the area (103 in April vs. 97 in the prior month for Jefferson County) the continued increase, now three months in a row, is worrisome. The trend is similar in Shelby County (see the web site for details). New inventory still has to contract to 1,800 or to reach more normal pre-2004 levels, and in light of the heavy used inventory, and low sales levels even that would be high (See the chart on page C.1, and table on page E-3).
Absorption rates for New homes improved to 9 months from 10 months of inventory last month, and is about even with 8 months last year at this time (Section E page 3). New house inventories in the higher price ranges (above $500,000) remain excessive at over a year, and are continuing to see deteriorating sales.
May 2009 shows 10,964 Used active listings (page E-3). Absorption for Used homes had been holding steady at 12 months of supply, level from June to August of 2008 and had been showing modest improvement which has now reversed, and sits at 12 months of inventory. This is about the same as last year’s level at this time (See section E page 3). As with the new home market, the higher price ranges are doing poorly, and deteriorating.
The primary reduction in Used homes for sale is occurring in areas such as 170 North Birmingham/Norwood, 160 Eastlake, 130 Centerpoint; while 140 Trussville, and 200 Mountain Brook (another new record), 230 Homewood were all up. I suspect some sellers in the lower price ranges may simply giving up trying to sell? The market for houses requiring “Jumbo” loans remains challenged. While foreclosures have impacted average prices, a bigger factor is the dramatic reduction in the number of higher priced homes sold. The recent increase in rates will not help this situation.
Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses increased to 192 days as compared to 187 days last month. One way to look at DOM is that older inventory is beginning to move, so increases in this number are not all bad! Used houses increased to 110 from 108 in April (sec A page 18).
Average sales price for Sold New homes increased to $232,111 from $214,595 last month (Chart sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes increased to $165,785 from $140,482 last month (Chart sect A p2). This was a somewhat surprising jump in both categories. The twelve month moving average line on all categories of houses, New, Used, and total continues to show a substantial downward slope (chart section a-2). It’s hard to read too much into average prices with the absence of higher end sales.
TWB 6/13/09
*Caution!: Each month we pick up late entries (i.e. ones made after our prior publication date) to the MLS system. Note that our totals are higher than what the MLS board reports because they apparently omit some areas which are in the MLS system but not in the immediate Birmingham area. We report everything in the system. Since both use consistent methods the % change or reported trend is almost always within a % or 2.
Huntsville/North Alabama Area MLS Observations Huntsville, Alabama Residential Real Estate Market May 2009:
Huntsville, North Alabama market had another poor sales month in May. This pattern is showing increased weakness in the overall market the sales levels for the last two months are below the 2004 levels. May total dollar sales were $113,925,957, 6%, higher than last month’s $107,821,524, and 32% below last year’s level of $166,533,985 (Section A Page 4).
May Huntsville Overall Sales Dollars
Total unit sales increased from 681 in April to 687 in May, an increase of 6.
New sales decreased from 126 homes last month to 121 this month, a decrease of 5.
Used sales decreased from 555 homes last month to 566 this month, a increase of 11 (Sect E Page 3).
May Huntsville Sales by Month
Unfortunately the slight trend down in absolute numbers of used homes for sale seems to have stalled at a fairly high number. Used homes are 11 months of inventory in all price ranges. The inventory situation remains challenged in the higher price ranges. Used homes over $200,000 are now at over 16 months of inventory, and in some price ranges as much as 4 years of inventory. New houses over $400,000 are over a year’s worth of inventory, and in some price ranges over three years of inventory. (Page E-1). There still remain 1,671 New homes for sale, slightly less than double what would have been normal prior to 2006 (See chart Page C-1). I have noted on the web site what seems to be a large number of housing permits issued, given the market conditions. To examine it a bit of detail: In Huntsville city for New homes, we showed 29 homes sold, 121 new listings (May) and 67 new single family housing permits issued (April), So new listings ran 4x sales and permits 2.3x sales.
Total Active listings decreased by 5% this month at 8,206 compared to last month at 8,669 and 3% less than May 2008, 8,447(against the 32% reduction in sales)(Chart section A page 4 and Page E-3). New houses New listings ran almost 3 times the rate of sales (Section B Page 1).
Active New listings decreased from 1,895 last month to 1,671 this month, down 224 (Page E-3).
Active Used listings decreased from 6,774 last month to 6,535 this month, down 239 (Page E-3).
We believe that there is an increasing amount of “shadow inventory” in both the New and Used market places i.e.; houses held off the market for various reasons, but that really are for sale. This could result in higher new listings and inventories as these properties come to market.
As mentioned above, we provide a link to free census department data on our blog site. It is unusual in any market to see months of supply for New houses exceeding Used supply. Given the high number of homes for sale (over 7,500), the BRAC realignment will not cure the market, particularly in light of other employment problems. I don’t get the continued new construction? What banks are funding construction?
Absorption for New homes deteriorated a bit at 12 months of inventory in May. This is a deterioration of 2 months from last year at this time. See Section E page 8. Absorption for Used homes was 11 months of inventory in May same as last month. This is a deterioration of 3 months from last year’s level at this time see Section E pg 8.
Average Days on Market for Sold New houses was 139 days vs. 130 days last month, with Used at 118 vs. 121 last month. (See Section A Page 18).
Average sales price for Sold New homes was $230,045 vs. $218,264 last month. (Chart Sect A Page 2)
Average sales price for Sold Used homes was $152,103 vs. $144,721 last month. (Chart Sect A Page 2)
The mix of higher and lower priced homes is jumping around quite a bit so it’s hard to read too much into average prices. However it is worth noting that the average price 12 month moving averages are all pointing down.
TWB 6/14/09*All references to last month numbers are revised, to pick up late entries (made after our prior publication date) to the MLS system.
Baldwin County MLS* Observations for the month of May 2009: Real Estate Statistics for the Baldwin County, Alabama Coastal Areas:
Sales in May improved by 10% to $76,037,703 from April’s $69,309,655 (see page A-2). We have now seen three months of increasing activity, a harbinger of spring and a sign of a bottom. It is certainly too early to declare a bottom, but there are signs. In particular, the 12 month moving average line of total dollar sales has “flattened” out and is no longer pointing straight down. Of the three areas we cover the coast is the only one to show this “flattening” of the downward curve. This could well be due to the extreme correction that has already occurred. Total homes active has similarly stopped climbing rapidly. New construction has slowed dramatically, and is no longer adding to the glut. I’m not exactly expecting sunshine. Unfortunately we would have liked to see somewhat more robust sales this month the month to month sales increase was somewhat weak as compared with more normal times. There are still big risks ahead; but, there is also the possibility that things won’t be getting a lot worse from here.
May Baldwin Overall Sales Dollars
A number of areas saw increased unit sales, and there were increases in sales for most price ranges. There were some sales in the upper ranges for Used homes indicating that there are some bargain hunters in the market. Even with the modest improvement, sales are still slow. But this is far better that the bottomless drop which has been the case for a while. On a unit basis, sales of all houses improved by 4% to 335 vs. 323 last month. Used house unit sales were flat, 296 vs. 297 last month. New house unit sales increased to 39 from 26 last month (Sect A P. 18).
May Baldwin Sales by Month
New listings for new houses declined somewhat to 39 in May a bit lower than April. New listings were even with sales of new houses, for the 1st time in a while, an improvement (Chart Section C P1 and Table Sect A P18). Used houses New listings increased to 819 this month from 784 in April. Sellers are frustrated and are possibly relisting their homes with new agents since net Active listings were down and are trending down for both new and used houses. (See below).
Interestingly, and encouraging, the absolute number of Used Active homes on the market has generally declined since peaking at 6,284 in May 2007. In May, there were 5,098 used homes a 19% reduction from the peak. The new house market which peaked out in September 2006 at 2,144 active, now sits at 514, a 77% reduction from the peak. There were 5,098 Used Active houses in May, a decrease from 5,354 in April.
The Absorption rate for new houses was 9 months of inventory for May vs. 11 in April. The Absorption rate for used houses was 22 months of inventory for May vs. 23 in April. (See Section A Page 17).
Average sales price for new units decreased to $206,218 from $260,685 last month. Life is still very difficult for those trying to sell higher priced homes, and inventory continues to climb. See the tables for details. (See Page A-14). The average used house price increased to $229,713 from $210,545 in April.
TWB 6/14/2009
*All references to last month numbers are revised to pick up late entries (made after our prior publication date) to the MLS system.
The Birmingham News posted a great article covering house values, at least as seen by the Jeffereson County appraisers…
Posted by Jeff Hansen — Birmingham News June 14, 2009 5:45 AM Full article Here.
From Bessemer and Warrior to Leeds and Hoover, home values are slumping across Jefferson County.
They have dropped 2.4 percent on average, according to a Birmingham News analysis of this year’s county data for 200,285 single family homes.
The decline affects every nook and cranny of Jefferson County, from $470,000 Forest Park homes to $46,500 Mulga homes. And it is the first drop in average home values since The News began analyzing Jefferson County revaluations in 1999.
WHAT’S THAT HOUSE WORTH?:
SEARCH THE DATABASE OF HOMES AND NEIGHBORHOODS
I enjoyed talking with Dawn Kent to provide information for for this story. I’m also glad to begin to have a bit more positive view on alt least one of our markets. Still a lot to work though but progress is beginning to be evident. See my summary of last month here.
The second-home market, particularly along the Gulf Coast, still has a way to go, although there are “delicate signs of a bottom,” said real estate analyst Tom Brander, publisher of the Rudulph/Brander Monthly Birmingham Area Real Estate Report.
Brander also tracks coastal Alabama with a monthly report on the Baldwin County Multiple Listing Service area. He notes that while the number of homes on the market is coming down, there are still multiple years’ worth of inventory for higher-priced used homes, which tend to be vacation homes.
For example, 310 used homes for sale in the Baldwin County area are priced at more than $900,000. In the past year, 32 have been sold, leading to Brander’s estimate of 116 months of inventory still on the market. For homes priced in the $500,000 to $600,000 range, about 40 months of inventory remains.
While such numbers mean it’s a good time to find bargains, Brander said some developments are virtually toxic. That’s because the number of sold units is too low to generate adequate maintenance fees for the property.
“There are buildings in Florida that have basically been shut down, mothballed. You cannot get a mortgage on a unit because banks are aware of the situation and refuse to finance it,” he said.
Well I’ve been saying that we are beginning to see the signs of a bottom. Hope it is real. See the reports for the last few months. Last month here.
And an index to all of my more recent articles about Baldwin County Alabama coastal property here.
Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for April 2009
April sales were so-so. Sales increased slightly from March, and this is not always the seasonal case. Dollar sales were up 5.5% to $168,031,197 in April vs. $159,247,024 in March. The first thing I look at every month is how the twelve month moving average line on the total dollar sales chart is looking. I began sounding warning signals when it started leveling out back in late 2006, and I’ll start feeling positive when it stops pointing down. It has to level off before it can point back up!
April Birmingham 2009 Total Residential Sales Dollars
Total unit sales improved by 6% to 1,096 in April from 1,034 in March, an increase of 62. This is a 22% decline from April 2008 (1,412). New sales deteriorated 5% to 177 homes this month from 186 in March; a drop of 9 units. Used sales improved 8% to 919 homes in April from 848 last month, an increase of 71 (sect E page 3).
A bit of good news: total inventory is down 20% from last year at this time at 12,757 vs. 15,910. Contrast this 20% reduction in inventory with the 22% reduction in sales on a comparable month basis. This comparable drop is somewhat promising! Active New listings decreased to 1.970 in April from 2,335 in March, a decline of 365 units (E-3). While it seems that there are a low number of housing permits in the area (97 in March vs. 61 in the prior month for Jefferson County) the continued increase is worrisome. New inventory still has to contract to 1,800 or to reach more normal pre-2004 levels, and in light of the heavy used inventory, and low sales levels even that would be high (See the chart on page C.1, and table on page E-3).
Absorption rates for New homes improved to 8 months from 9 months of inventory last month, about even with 8 months last year at this time (Section E page 3). New house inventories in the higher price ranges (above $500,000) remain excessive at over a year, and are continuing to see poor sales.
April 2009 shows 10,787 Used active listings (page E-3). Absorption for Used homes had been holding steady at 12 months of supply, level from June to August of 2008 and had been showing modest improvement which has now reversed, and sits at 11 months of inventory. This is about the same as last year’s level at this time (See section E page 3).
The primary reduction in used homes for sale is occurring in areas such as 170 North Birmingham/Norwood, 160 Eastlake, 130 Centerpoint; while 140 Trussville, and 200 Mountain Brook (a new record), 230 Homewood were all up. I suspect some sellers in the lower price ranges may simply giving up trying to sell? The market for houses requiring “Jumbo” loans remains challenged. While foreclosures have impacted average prices, a bigger factor is the dramatic reduction in the number of higher priced homes sold.
Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses increased to 187 days as compared to 179 days last month. Used houses decreased to 108 from 117 in March (sec A page 18).
Average sales price for Sold New homes increased to $214,791 from $210,585 last month (Chart sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes decreased to $141,472 from $141,602 last month (Chart sect A p2). Note that the twelve month moving average line on all categories of houses, New, Used, and total is now showing a very substantial downward slope (chart section a-2) indicating that sellers are at last showing flexibility on pricing. It’s hard to read too much into average prices with the absence of higher end sales.
TWB 5/15/09
*Caution!: All references to last month (and earlier) numbers show revisions. Each month we pick up late entries (i.e. ones made after our prior publication date) to the MLS system. Note that our totals are higher than what the MLS board reports because they apparently omit some areas which are in the MLS system but not in the immediate Birmingham area. We report everything in the system. Since both use consistent methods the % change or reported trend is almost always within a % or 2.
Huntsville/North Alabama Area MLS Observations Huntsville, Alabama Residential Real Estate Market April 2009:
Huntsville, North Alabama market had another poor sales month in April. This pattern is showing increased weakness in the overall market the sales levels are now below the 2004 levels which is lower than previously seen. April total dollar sales were $105,362,374, 1%, lower than last month’s $106,075,089, and 25% below last year’s level of $139,824,040.
April 2009 Huntsville Area Total Dollar Sales
Total unit sales decreased from 685 in March to 669 in April, a decrease of 16.
New sales decreased from 123 homes last month to 122 this month, a decrease of 1.
Used sales decreased from 562 homes last month to 547 this month, a decrease of 15 (Sect E Page 3).
Unfortunately the slight trend down in absolute numbers of used homes for sale seems to have stalled at a fairly high number. Used homes are 11 months of inventory in all price ranges, which is a bit of deterioration from last month. The inventory situation remains challenged in the higher price ranges. Used homes over $200,000 are now at over 16 months of inventory, and in some price ranges as much as 4 years of inventory. This situation has gotten somewhat worse over the last few months. New houses over $400,000 are over a year’s worth of inventory, and in some price ranges over three years of inventory. (Page E-1). There still remain 1,686 New homes for sale, slightly less than double what would have been normal prior to 2006 (See chart Page C-1). I have noted on the web site what seems to be a large number of housing permits issued, given the market conditions.
Total Active listings decreased by 4% this month at 8,099 compared to last month at 8,430 and 3% less than April 2008, 8,374(against the 25% reduction in sales)(Chart section A page 4 and Page E-3). New houses New listings ran almost 3 times the rate of sales (Section B Page 1).
Active New listings decreased from 1,866 last month to 1,686 this month, down 180 (Page E-3).
Active Used listings decreased from 6,564 last month to 6,413 this month, down 101 (Page E-3).
We believe that there is an increasing amount of “shadow inventory” in both the New and Used market places i.e.; houses held off the market for various reasons, but that really are for sale. This could result in higher spring new listings and inventories as these properties come to market.
As mentioned above, we provide a link to free census department data on our blog site. Look under data sources in the right column. The high number of building permits relative to sales and inventory is highlighted. It is unusual in any market to see months of supply for New houses exceeding Used supply. Given the high number of homes for sale (over 7,500), the BRAC realignment will not cure the market, particularly in light of other employment problems. I don’t get the continued new construction? What banks are funding construction?
Absorption for New homes remains at 11 months of inventory in April. This is still a deterioration of 1 month from last year at this time. See Section E page 8. Absorption for Used homes was 11 months of inventory in April same as last month. This is a deterioration of 3 months from last year’s level at this time see Section E pg 8.
Average Days on Market for Sold New houses was 130 days vs. 113 days last month, with Used at 121 vs. 122 last month. (See Section A Page 18).
Average sales price for Sold New homes was $216,110 vs. $230,988 last month. (Chart Sect A Page 2)
Average sales price for Sold Used homes was $144,419 vs. $138,191 last month. (Chart Sect A Page 2)
The mix of higher and lower priced homes is jumping around quite a bit so it’s hard to read too much into average prices. However it is worth noting that the average price 12 month moving averages are all pointing down.
TWB 5/15/09*All references to last month numbers are revised, to pick up late entries (made after our prior publication date) to the MLS system.
