We are providing development and analytical support for this new survey. As our readers know, we provide objective, accurate and timely reporting. We are very happy to be working with ACRE on this project. It will extend our collective ability to give the industry the tools it needs. Take a moment and sign up so that you can participate.
The Alabama Real Estate Confidence Index (ARECI) will measure real estate expectations (residential & commercial gauged separately) for the upcoming quarter gathered from a broad group of real estate professionals from every area of the state. With six key indicators and a composite index, the survey will represent the pulse of the state’s real estate market.
The index will represent another invaluable tool for our industry to use as a general indicator of local/statewide outlook & trends; decision making & short-term planning; for comparing to their own projections; and simply for sharing with clients and customers.
• Why does ACRE think this is needed?
Although there are national indexes, none specifically address the Alabama real estate market. While we certainly understand that our market does not operate in a vacuum, we still firmly believe that our statewide practitioners have a clearer understanding of their “local” markets and we hope that our index can provide a conduit for their market knowledge in the aggregate to be effectively and usefully delivered to our industry and to the consumers we serve on a daily basis.
The electronic survey will poll professionals in all real estate related fields (not just sales). The panelist demographic section is very important and need only be completed once when you first log-in to participate. It will include two broad area(s) to select from (either/or): commercial or residential. The panelist will also provide where he/she conducts the majority of its business so that we can also provide results by geographic area. In addition to its distribution by supporting real estate organizations, a link to the survey will always be available on ACRE’s homepage, www.acre.cba.ua.edu.
• When will the first report come out?
–
Grayson M. Glaze, JD, CPM, CCIM
Executive Director
Alabama Center for Real Estate
The University of Alabama
127 Bidgood Hall
Box 870221
Tuscaloosa, AL 35487-0221
205-348-4117
Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for October 2009
October residential sales were down from September which was to be expected. Normally, there is a pronounced decline from September to October. Dollar sales were down 12% to $170,888,024 in October vs. $193,541,603 in September. That is up 4% from last October ($164,458,151). We are almost certain to see three more months of declining sales, just based on normal seasonality, but it seems that the 1st time homeowners credit is having a positive effect. The first thing I look at every month is how the twelve month moving average line on the total dollar sales chart is trending. This month it was actually even with last month. It is a bit early for outright optimism but…. how things will unfold from here is a real mystery to me.
Total unit sales declined by 6% to 1,121 in October from 1,187 in September, a decrease of 66. This is a 7% improvement from October 2008 (1,043). New sales fell 23% to 183 homes this month from 238 in September, a reduction of 55 units. Used sales dropped 1% to 938 homes in October from 949 last month, a decrease of 11 (Sect E p.3).
A disturbing trend is that while we have been reporting total inventory numbers as going down pretty much month after month, a close look at the data reveals that the opposite has been happening. This is due to the date sensitivity of how listings are recorded, and when during the month they get renewed (call me if you want the details). For the last 9 months (and probably this month also when we look again next month) the used inventory level has been climbing. For this month total inventory is down 15% from last year at this time at 12,238 vs. 14,429.
Active New listings decreased to 1,514 in October from 1,858 in September, a decline of 344 units (Sect E p.3). In September it appears that builders cut back on permits. The number of housing permits has shrunk a bit in the area (54 in September vs. 66 in the prior month for Jefferson County). Shelby County permits jumped a bit (See the web site for details). New inventory is going below the 1,800 or so level which reflects more normal pre-2004 levels. However, in light of the heavy and increasing Used inventory, and low sales levels, I would not be in a rush to build! (Sect C p.1, (compare it to last month) and Sect E p.3).
For both new and used homes the months of inventory has been steadily rising (excluding the current month for the reasons cited above). Absorption rates for New homes improved to 8 months of inventory, and is about even with 8 months last year at this time (Sect E p.3). New house inventories in the higher price ranges (above $500,000) remain excessive at over a year and that situation has not improved.
October 2009 shows 10,724 Used active listings (Sect E p.3). Absorption for Used homes is slowly climbing now at 12 months of supply. This is about the same as last year’s level at this time (Sect E p.3). As with the New home market, the higher price ranges are doing poorly and deteriorating somewhat.
The primary reduction in Used homes for sale is occurring in areas 170 North Birmingham/Norwood, 160 Eastlake, and 130 Centerpoint, and indeed some of these areas are beginning to approach normal levels of inventory, while 140 Trussville, 200 Mountain Brook, and 230 Homewood are all up. The market for houses requiring “Jumbo” loans remains challenged and if anything is getting worse.
Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses increased to 183 days as compared to 143 days last month. One way to look at DOM is that older inventory is beginning to move, so increases in this number are not all bad! Used houses decreased to 78 from 98 in September (Sect A p.18).
Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $199,861 from $223,008 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes decreased to $143,191 from $148,014 last month (Sect A p2). The twelve month moving average price line for all categories of houses, New, Used, and Total shows a substantial downward slope (Sect A p2). It’s hard to read too much into average prices with the continued absence of higher end sales.
TWB 11/14/09
Huntsville/North Alabama Area MLS Observations Huntsville, Alabama Residential Real Estate Market October 2009:
For a second month in a row, the Huntsville, North Alabama market performed substantially better than expected. In October sales were 13% above September results. This is the best October to September comparison in ten years. October total dollar sales were $138,995,936, compared with $123,448,487 in September, and 19% above last year’s level of $116,676,494 (Sect A p.4).
Total unit sales increased from 766 in September to 865 in October, an increase of 99.
New sales increased from 156 homes last month to 178 this month, an increase of 22.
Used sales increased from 610 homes last month to 687 this month, an increase of 77 (Sect E p.3).
While the sales trend has been very encouraging, a disturbing trend is evident. While we have been reporting total inventory numbers as going down month after month, a close look at the data reveals that the opposite has been happening. This is due to the date sensitivity of how listings are recorded, and when during the month they get renewed (call me if you want the details). For the last 9 months (and probably this month also when we look again next month), the used inventory level has been climbing. For the last 6 months inventory has been setting records. Used homes are 12 months of inventory in all price ranges. The inventory situation remains challenged in the higher price ranges. Used homes over $200,000 are now at over 18 months of inventory, and in some price ranges as much as 7 years of inventory.
New houses are at 10 months of inventory, and homes priced greater than $400,000 are over a year’s worth of inventory, and in some price ranges over six years of inventory. (E-1). I have noted on the web site what seems to be a large number of housing permits issued, given the market conditions. There were 70 new single family housing permits issued (September) down from 96 in the prior month in Huntsville city according to the Census department. This permit level is still above the sales level for the comparable area.
Total Active listings decreased by 10% this month at 8,081 compared to last month at 8.943 (Sect A p.4 and Sect E p.3). (Given the note above, I expect this will increase when reported next month.) New houses New listings ran 1.3 times the rate of sales (Sect B p.1). Active New listings decreased from 1,786 last month to 1,475 this month, down 311 (Sect E p.3). Active Used listings decreased from 7,175 last month to 6,606 this month, down 569 (Sect E p.3).
Given the high number of homes for sale (over 8,000), the BRAC realignment will not cure the market, particularly in light of other employment problems. What banks are funding construction?
Absorption for New homes was at 10 months of inventory in October. This is roughly the same as last year at this time (Sect E p.8). Absorption for Used homes was 12 months of inventory in October an improvement of 1 from last month. This is a deterioration of 3 months from last year’s level at this time (Sect E p.8).
Average Days on Market for Sold New houses was 88 days vs. 155 days last month, with Used at 114 vs. 123 last month. (Sect A p.18).
Average sales price for Sold New homes was $223,144 vs. $234,072 last month. (Sect A p.2)
Average sales price for Sold Used homes was $144,507 vs. $142,513 last month. (Sect A p.2)
The twelve month moving average line of prices for both new and used homes has a decidedly negative slope, indicating that prices are truly coming down. The mix of higher and lower priced homes is jumping around quite a bit so it’s hard to read too much into average prices.
TWB 11/15/09
Baldwin County MLS* Observations for the month of October 2009: Real Estate Statistics for the Baldwin County, Alabama Coastal Areas:
Sales in October were disappointing dropping 32% to $57,217,181 from September’s $83,775,515 (Sect A p.2). I’d still say that the situation on the coast is actually showing signs of leveling out in spite of this month’s poor results. The 12 month moving average line of total dollar sales has “flattened” out, and is no longer pointing straight down. Of the three areas we cover the coast is the only one to show this “flattening” of the downward curve. The total number of active home listings has started to head down. The inventory of used homes remains at a high level. New construction has slowed dramatically, and is no longer adding to the glut. There are still big risks ahead but there is also the possibility that things won’t be getting a lot worse from here.
- See our new chart in Section A p.19 which shows the historical tends for absolute inventory in units and in months of inventory for New and Used units. We think it is quite useful.
Daphne/Montrose area and Orange Beach continue to show nice increases in unit sales.
The 12 month moving average line of unit sales for Used homes has a slight upward slope. This is far better that the bottomless drop which has been the case for a while. On a unit basis, sales of all houses declined by 24% to 277 vs. 363 last month. Used house unit sales were down, 253 vs. 315 last month. New house unit sales decreased to 24 from 48 last month (Sect A p.18).
New listings for New houses increased to 82 in October from 59 in September. Used houses New listings decreased to 740 this month from 756 in September. Sellers are frustrated, and are possibly relisting their homes with new agents. (See below).
The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market which had a slight peak mid-summer, has once again started to level out or even decline slightly. In October, there were 4,963 Active Used homes. The New house market which peaked in October 2006 at 2,144 active, now sits at 491. There were 4,963 Used Active houses in October, a 7% decrease from 5,343 in September.
The Absorption rate for new houses was 12 months of inventory for October vs. 11 in September. The Absorption rate for used houses was 20 months of inventory for October vs. 22 in September. (Sect A p.17).
Average sales price for New units decreased to $205,150 from $223,871 last month. Life is still very difficult for those trying to sell higher priced homes, and inventory continues to climb. See the tables for details. (Sect A p.14). The average used house price decreased to $206,694 from $231,840 in September.
TWB 11/14/2009
Realtrac, sees notices of default being processed by the banks, only a small percentage of which actually result in foreclosure. So the headlines about big increases in foreclosures, may or may not presage a real increase in actual foreclosures. In the case of the Realtors who have also been reporting on foreclosures, they only see those homes that are being sold by Realtors, that have been designated as foreclosures, in fact these listings are way after the fact and may also reflect repeat listings for homes that don’t sell after they have been foreclosed…
So this report from Alabama Title Company reflects actual foreclosure deeds filed in the county. Interestingly they paint a considerably brighter picture, which I certainly hope to be a more accurate reflection of what is really happening.
From their report:
Despite recent reports that foreclosures are surging in the state, foreclosures in Jefferson and Shelby counties, as measured by the actual number of foreclosure deeds filed in those Probate offices, continue to decline, by 13 percent for the year in Jefferson County and by five percent in Shelby County. In the mortgage market, Jefferson County saw a marked increase in filings, but the number remained relatively weak compared with 2008.
September 2009 Jefferson County Foreclosures
Foreclosure filings in the Jefferson County Probate Office fell to 263 in September from 268 in August. Year-to-date, foreclosures in Jefferson County are down 13 percent compared with the same period in 2008.
Shelby County Sept 2009 Forclosure
Foreclosures declined in Shelby County from 73 in August to 36 in September. Overall, foreclosures year-todate are down nearly five percent in that county.
Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for September 2009
September residential sales were surprisingly good and about equal to August. Normally, there is a pronounced decline from August to September. Dollar sales were down .7% to $184,140,031 in September vs. $185,505,105 in August. That is off 26% from last September ($250,547,162). We are almost certain to see three more months of declining sales, just based on normal seasonality, but it seems that the 1st time homeowners credit is having a positive effect. How things will unfold from here is a real mystery to me. The first thing I look at every month is how the twelve month moving average line on the total dollar sales chart is trending. I’ll start feeling positive when it stops pointing down which has not happened.
Total unit sales improved by 15.5% to 1,124 in September from 1,108 in August, an increase of 16. This is a 23% decline from September 2008 (1,452). New sales improved 24% to 211 homes this month from 170 in August, a jump of 41 units. Used sales dropped 3% to 913 homes in September from 938 last month, a decrease of 25 (Sect E p.3).
A disturbing trend is that while we have been reporting total inventory numbers as going down pretty much month after month, a close look at the data reveals that the opposite has been happening. This is due to the date sensitivity of how listings are recorded, and when during the month they get renewed (call me if you want the details). For the last 8 months (and probably this month also when we look again next month) the used inventory level has been climbing.
September Birmingham Absorption and Inventory
For this month total inventory is down 15% from last year at this time at 12,595 vs. 14,831. Active New listings decreased to 1,594 in September from 1,973 in August, a decline of 379 units (Sect E p.3). In August it appears that builders cut back on permits. The number of housing permits has shrunk a bit in the area (66 in August vs. 132 in the prior month for Jefferson County). The trend is similar in Shelby County (See the web site for details). New inventory is reaching the 1,800 or so level which reflects more normal pre-2004 levels. However, in light of the heavy and increasing Used inventory, and low sales levels, I would not be in a rush to build! (Sect C p.1, and Sect E p.3).
For both new and used homes the months of inventory has been steadily rising (excluding the current month for the reasons cited above). Absorption rates for New homes remained at 9 months of inventory, and is about even with 8 months last year at this time (Sect E p.3). New house inventories in the higher price ranges (above $500,000) remain excessive at over a year and that situation has not improved.
September 2009 shows 11,001 Used active listings (Sect E p.3). Absorption for Used homes is slowly climbing now at 12.5 months of supply. This is about the same as last year’s level at this time (Sect E p.3). As with the New home market, the higher price ranges are doing poorly and deteriorating somewhat.
The primary reduction in Used homes for sale is occurring in areas 170 North Birmingham/Norwood, 160 Eastlake, and 130 Centerpoint, and indeed some of these areas are beginning to approach normal levels of inventory, while 140 Trussville, 200 Mountain Brook, and 230 Homewood are all up. The market for houses requiring “Jumbo” loans remains challenged and if anything is getting worse.
Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses was quite a bit lower at 143 days as compared to 193 days last month. One way to look at DOM is that older inventory is beginning to move, so increases in this number are not all bad! Used houses decreased to 98 from 102 in August (Sect A p.18).
Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $230,251 from $230,601 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes decreased to $148,474 from $155,973 last month (Sect A p2). The twelve month moving average price line for all categories of houses, New, Used, and Total shows a substantial downward slope (Sect A p2). It’s hard to read too much into average prices with the continued absence of higher end sales.
It is an interesting Fall and not just football. Stay tuned!
TWB 10/10/09
Huntsville/North Alabama Area MLS Observations Huntsville, Alabama Residential Real Estate Market September 2009:
Huntsville, North Alabama market performed substantially better than expected in September coming in 2% below August results. This is the best September to August comparison in ten years. This is about the same as September 2004. It is still highly likely given the strong seasonal trends that sales will continue to deteriorate for the remainder of the year. September total dollar sales were $120,782,817, compared with $123,234,552 in August, and 16% below last year’s level of $143,384,035 (Sect A p.4).
Total unit sales increased from 750 in August to 748 in September, an increase of 2.
New sales increased from 143 homes last month to 151 this month, an increase of 8.
Used sales decreased from 605 homes last month to 599 this month, a decrease of 6 (Sect E p.3).
A disturbing trend: while we have been reporting total inventory numbers as going down month after month, a close look at the data reveals that the opposite has been happening. This is due to the date sensitivity of how listings are recorded, and when during the month they get renewed (call me if you want the details). For the last 8 months (and probably this month also when we look again next month), the used inventory level has been climbing. For the last 5 months inventory has been setting records. Used homes are 12.4 months of inventory in all price ranges. The inventory situation remains challenged in the higher price ranges. Used homes over $200,000 are now at over 19 months of inventory, and in some price ranges as much as 7 years of inventory.
New houses are at 11 months of inventory, and homes priced greater than $400,000 are over a year’s worth of inventory, and in some price ranges over six years of inventory.
September 2009 Huntsville/North Alabama Absorption and Inventory
I have noted on the web site what seems to be a large number of housing permits issued, given the market conditions. There were 96 new single family housing permits issued (August) down from 105 in the prior month in Huntsville city according to the Census department. This permit level is still above the sales level for the comparable area.
Total Active listings decreased by 8% this month at 8,365 compared to last month at 9,088 (Sect A p.4 and Sect E p.3). (Given the note above, I expect this will increase when reported next month.) New houses New listings ran 1.7 times the rate of sales (Sect B p.1). Active New listings decreased from 1,864 last month to 1,528 this month, down 336 (Sect E p.3). Active Used listings decreased from 7,224 last month to 6,837 this month, down 387 (Sect E p.3).
Given the high number of homes for sale (over 8,000), the BRAC realignment will not cure the market, particularly in light of other employment problems. What banks are funding construction?
Absorption for New homes remained at 11 months of inventory in September. This is a deterioration of .5 month from last year at this time (Sect E p.8). Absorption for Used homes was 12 months of inventory in September same as last month. This is a deterioration of 3 months from last year’s level at this time (Sect E p.8).
Average Days on Market for Sold New houses was 155 days vs. 89 days last month, with Used at 123 vs. 121 last month. (Sect A p.18). As a side note the increase in DOM for new home means that some of the “old” inventory is moving, so that is actually good news.
Average sales price for Sold New homes was $235,373 vs. $239,157 last month. (Sect A p.2)
Average sales price for Sold Used homes was $142,306 vs. $147,165 last month. (Sect A p.2)
The mix of higher and lower priced homes is jumping around quite a bit so it’s hard to read too much into average prices. However, it is worth noting that the average price 12 month moving averages are all pointing down.
It is an interesting Fall season, (and not just football), stay tuned!
TWB 10/11/09
Baldwin County MLS* Observations for the month of September 2009: Real Estate Statistics for the Baldwin County, Alabama Coastal Areas:
Sales in September improved by 15% to $81,599,215 from August’s $70,901,748 (Sect A p.2). This is the strongest August to September percentage change on record, by far. While things are bad, with outsized inventories of homes for sale, the good news is that unlike some areas that we cover where inventories are continuing to climb (albeit from lower levels) and sales are continuing to fall, the situation on the coast is actually showing signs of leveling out and this month we are even seeing signs of improvement. This could be the first stage of recovery! The 12 month moving average line of total dollar sales has “flattened” out, and is no longer pointing straight down. Of the three areas we cover the coast is the only one to show this “flattening” of the downward curve. The total number of active home listings has started to head down. The inventory of used homes remains at a high level. New construction has slowed dramatically, and is no longer adding to the glut. There are still big risks ahead but there is also the possibility that things won’t be getting a lot worse from here.
- See our new chart below, which shows the historical tends for absolute inventory in units and in months of inventory for New and Used units. We think it is quite useful.
September '09 Baldwin Inventory
Daphne/Montrose area and Orange Beach continue to show nice increases in unit sales. The 12 month moving average line of unit sales for Used homes has a slight upward slope. This is far better that the bottomless drop which has been the case for a while. On a unit basis, sales of all houses improved by 22% to 354 vs. 290 last month. Used house unit sales were up, 308 vs. 250 last month. New house unit sales increased to 46 from 40 last month (Sect A p.18).
New listings for New houses dropped to 57 in September from 76 in August. Used houses New listings increased to 738 this month from 727 in August. Sellers are frustrated, and are possibly relisting their homes with new agents. (See below).
The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market which had a slight peak mid-summer has once again started to level out or even, decline slightly. In September, there were 4,954 Active Used homes. The New house market which peaked out in September 2006 at 2,144 active, now sits at 469. There were 4,954 Used Active houses in September, a 7% decrease from 5,347 in August.
The Absorption rate for new houses was 10 months of inventory for September vs. 11 in August. The Absorption rate for used houses was 21 months of inventory for September vs. 23 in August. (Sect A p.17).
Average sales price for New units increased to $223,042 from $186,259 last month. Life is still very difficult for those trying to sell higher priced homes, and inventory continues to climb. See the tables for details. (Sect A p.14). The average used house price decreased to $231,621 from $253,806 in August.
TWB 10/11/2009
I am pleased to present what I believe to be the best local foreclosure data. Unlike the national “foreclosure filing” data which represents delinquent loans which may or may not result in an actual foreclosure, that is most often reported, this is real foreclosure data, filed at the courthouse, from actual transactions reported on a consistent basis and timely basis. We were pleased to help Alabama Title with presentation ideas for this data.
Key Points for the Month (August 2009)
Jefferson County foreclosures rose in July to 430 from 277 the prior month. In August 268 foreclosures were filed. Overall, foreclosures year-to-date are down 15.2 percent in Jefferson County.
August 2009 Jefferson County Foreclosure data
Shelby County: Shelby County foreclosures jumped from 57 in July to 73 in August. However, year-todate foreclosures are down slightly by two percent. Generally, Shelby County foreclosure numbers have remained more stable than those of Jefferson County.
August 2009 Shelby County Foreclosure Data
Despite a mini-surge in foreclosures in Jefferson County in early August, the real news for the month is the continued decline of mortgage activity. Despite a short boom in refinances during the first quarter of the year, mortgage filings fell to their lowest level since December 2008, when credit markets faltered after a series of large corporate failures.
Mortgage filings typically decrease in the Fall reflecting the seasonality of the housing market. However, the steep decline over last year’s numbers – absent a decrease in interest rates such as occurred last December – does not bode well for the mortgage market.
via: The Alabama Title Company Mortgage and Foreclosure Report Sept 24, 2009
I received this from the director of the Greater Birmingham Association of Home Builders. (republished with permission)
I don’t have good data on Starts vs. permits. I’d also note that the other areas we follow, including Huntsville and Shelby County also showed pretty substantial increases in permit activity.
Tom,
Read with interest your latest report. One item I would
point out regarding Permits for new construction…..Last month JeffCo was threatening a “moratorium”
on new home permits due to the budget crisis (not enough inspectors, etc…).
They said that they would stop issuing permits on a date certain for a period
of 30-90 days but would “honor” permits pulled prior to this time.
For this reason, several “track” builders pulled
enough permits to get them thru the 90 day period “just in case.”
Eventually the county did not implement the moratorium; however, the permits
had already been pulled.I would suggest you look at “starts” vs. permits
in the coming months. I anticipate much lower permit activity in the coming
months as builders work thru the permits they had purchased in advance and I
would expect the actual new home starts would be much lower than the permits.Best regards,
Bart
J. Bart Fletcher,
CAE
Executive Vice PresidentGreater Birmingham
Association of Home Builders
