Birmingham September Sales up 18% From Last Year

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for September 2014

Dollar sales in September declined by 4% to $282,951,372 from August’s $294,526,435, up by 18% over last September’s $238,693,635. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales has flattened but still showing an upward trend indicating modest slowing from last years’ rapid growth.

Total Unit sales were down 6% to 1,404 in September from 1,493 in August, a decrease of 89. This is up 12% from last September at 1,254. New sales increased by 25 units to 173 homes this month from 148 in August and even with 152 last year. Used sales were 1,231 homes in September, down 8% from 1,345 last month, a decrease of 114, and up by 128 units from 1,103 last year(Sect E p.3)

Using the ACRE data and results for forecasting, which are derived in a slightly different method than this report, we forecasted a full year gain of 8% for the full year. As of August the cumulative increase in units is 5%. We determined that the Birmingham MLS is assigning some sales to the Talladega market which were previously reported as part of Birmingham, thus reducing the reported sales in Birmingham, so the forecast is probably a bit more accurate than it appears on a “comparable” basis.

This month total inventory is 6% lower at 9,214 vs. last month at 9,847 and 10,519 last year. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market. Active New listings decreased to 771 in September from 1,048 in August (the highest level of new homes active since September 2011), a decline of 277 units (Sect E p.3).  

Housing permits were down in Jefferson County to 58 in August from 101 in July. Shelby County went from 42 to 31 in August.

Absorption rate for New homes is at 6 months supply this month which is one month better than last year at this time. Last month though, shows 8 months of supply (Sect E p.3). The New homes for the most part have normal inventory levels in the 1-7 month range. (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in September shows 7 months, two months better than 9 months last year. Used Active listings at 8,443 are lower than the 9,601 last year (Sect E p.3). The market performance is highly area specific, so check the individual area charts. For instance, Mountain Brook has about two months of inventory except in the over $900,000 category, which has 7 months of inventory (37 homes) with two sold in that price range last month . The average days on market for that category is 120. There are a number of MLS areas showing similarly low levels of inventory, including Homewood and Centerpoint.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 197, compared with 183 last month. The Used homes DOM was 127 in September, compared with 131 last month (Sect A p.18). Average sales price for Sold New homes increased to $288,825 from $272,128 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales price for Sold Used homes increased to $189,265 from $189,035 last month (Sect A p2). The moving average price for all homes has been up steadily for the past year. (Sect A p2).

TWB 10/11/2014  

Alabama Coastal Real Estate Slower in September

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of September 2014

Sales dollars decreased 17% in September to $97,496,977 from August of $117,202,531. This is 13% off September last year at $111,720,189. (Sect A p.2). The 12 month moving average line of sales which had continued to point up steadily for three years can now best be described as “squiggly.” I would characterize the market activity as “unusual”. Inventories continue trending down.

In concert with ACRE, The Alabama Center for Real Estate, we did projections for 2014 full year sales. We use the ACRE provided data for the projections, which differs slightly from the data in this report. We project unit sales for Baldwin County increasing by 32% over 2013 and the projected condo increase of  8% over 2013.  As of September, the cumulative year over year change in units is up 4%, far short of the adjusted forecast. The condo actuals are cumulatively at about 8% below the forecast, with a 1% year over year change.

On a unit basis, sales of all houses were down 10% to 453 this month vs. last month at 504, which is off 2% from last year’s 462. There is still substantial inventory available to satisfy demand.

Used Home sales decreased 13% to 392 this month vs. 450 last month, which is even with last year’s 392 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 61 this month vs 54 last month and compared with 70 last year.

New listings for New homes increased to 83 from 70 in August. Used homes New listings increased to 679 from 624 in August with net inventory down.

 The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has once again been improving. In September, there were 3,641 Active Used homes, a reduction from 4,086 in August. The New home market, which peaked in September 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 446.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 7 months of inventory in September vs. 8 in August. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 9 months of inventory for September vs. 10 in August. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in August 2008 to 9 months this September. The inventory of homes in the upper price range remains high with homes over $400,000 at over a year’s supply.

Average sales price for all homes has been improving modestly for the past year. For New units, prices decreased to  $237,174 from $254.039 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices decreased to $211,810 from $229,965 in August. The price trend is up for the year. Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in September was 163 this month vs. 212 last month. Days On Market for Used was 170 this month vs. 155 last month.

TWB 10/10/2014

Birmingham Area Real Estate Sales up 7% Over Last Year

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for August 2014

Dollar sales in August declined by 11% to $291,981,203 from July’s $326,252,052, up by 7% over last August’s $278,145,050. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales has flattened indicating uncertain market conditions.

Total Unit sales were down 7% to 1,469 in August from 1,579 in July, a decrease of 110. This is off 2% from last August at 1,495. New sales declined by 10 units to 143 homes this month from 153 in July and even with 143 last year. Used sales were 1,326 homes in August, down 7% from 1,426 last month, a decrease of 100, and off by 26 units from 1,352 last year(Sect E p.3)

Using the ACRE data and results for forecasting, which are derived in a slightly different method than this report, we forecasted a full year gain of 8% for the full year. As of August the cumulative increase in units is 5%. We determined that the Birmingham MLS is assigning some sales to the Talladega market which were previously reported as part of Birmingham, thus reducing the reported sales in Birmingham, so the forecast is probably a bit more accurate than it appears on a “comparable” basis.

This month total inventory is 9% lower at 9,224 vs. last month at 10,137 and 10,412 last year. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market. Active New listings decreased to 738 in August from 1,018 in July (the highest level of new homes active since August 2011), a decline of 280 units (Sect E p.3).  

Housing permits were down in Jefferson County to 101 in July from 142 in June. Shelby County went from 25 to 42 in July. It is worth noting the high level of Multi-Family permits in Jefferson County. There has also been a number of press mentions of new development activity, for which permits have not yet been issued, therefore, not yet appearing in these numbers.

Absorption rate for New homes is at 6 months supply this month which is one month better than last year at this time. Last month though, shows 8 months of supply (Sect E p.3). The New homes for the most part have normal inventory levels in the 1-7 month range. (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in August shows 8 months, one month better than 9 months last year. Used Active listings at 8,486 are lower than the 9,477 last year (Sect E p.3). The market performance is highly area specific, so check the individual area charts. For instance, Mountain Brook has about three months of inventory except in the over $900,000 category, which has 6 months of inventory (33 homes) with four sold in that price range last month . The average days on market for that category is 118.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 183, compared with 211 last month. The Used homes DOM was 131 in August, compared with 127 last month (Sect A p.18). Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $276,371 from $281,777 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales price for Sold Used homes decreased to $190,392 from $198,556 last month (Sect A p2). The moving average price for all homes has been up steadily for the past year. (Sect A p2).

Note the MLS has added 20 new areas #320-570, which are placeholders for each county in the state. I have combined these into a single “other” area (400) with an aggregate of 5 sales last month.

TWB 9/1/2014

Baldwin County Real Estate Slows in August

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of August 2014

Sales dollars increased 7% in August to $116,880,231 from July of $108,939,980. This is 5% off August last year at $122,860,528. (Sect A p.2). The 12 month moving average line of sales which had continued to point up steadily for three years can now best be described as “squiggly.” I would characterize the market activity as “unusual.” Inventories continue trending down.

In concert with ACRE, The Alabama Center for Real Estate, we did projections for 2014 full year sales. We use the ACRE provided data for the projections, which differs slightly from the data in this report. We project unit sales for Baldwin County increasing by 32% over 2013 and the projected condo increase of  8% over 2013.  As of August, the cumulative year over year change in units is up 5%, far short of the adjusted forecast. The condo actuals are cumulatively at about 8% below the forecast, with a 2% year over year change.

On a unit basis, sales of all houses were up 3% to 502 this month vs. last month at 478, which is off 7% from last year’s 538. There is still substantial inventory available to satisfy demand.

Used Home sales increased 3% to 448 this month vs. 436 last month, which is off 6% from last year’s 477 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 54 this month vs 42 last month and compared with 61 last year.

New listings for New homes decreased to 70 from 137 in July. Used homes New listings decreased to 617 from 750 in July with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has once again been improving. In August, there were 3,690 Active Used homes, a reduction from 4,257 in July. The New home market, which peaked in August 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 436.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 7 months of inventory in August vs. 7 in July. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 9 months of inventory for August vs. 11 in July. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in July 2008 to 9 months this August. The inventory of homes in the higher price ranges remains high with homes over $400,000 at over a years supply.

Average sales price for all homes has been improving modestly for the past year. For New units, prices decreased to  $254,039 from $261,594 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices increased to $230,273 from $224,663 in July. The price trend is up for the year. Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in August was 212 this month vs. 202 last month. Days On Market for Used was 155 this month vs. 148 last month.

TWB 9/13/2014

Birmingham July Real Estate Sales 5% Ahead of Last Year

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for July 2014

Dollar sales in July declined slightly by 2% to $317,548,924 from June’s $322,649,595, up by 5% over last July’s $302,736,411. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales has flattened indicating uncertain market conditions.

Unit sales were down 2% to 1,534 in July from 1,559 in June, a decrease of 25. This is up 5% from last July at 1,468.

Using the ACRE data and results for forecasting, which are derived in a slightly different method than this report, we forecasted a full year gain of 8% for the full year. As of June the cumulative increase in units is 4%. We determined that the Birmingham MLS is assigning some sales to the Talladega market which were previously reported as part of Birmingham, thus reducing the reported sales in Birmingham, so the forecast is probably a bit more accurate than it appears on a “comparable” basis.

Birmingham forecast to Actual JUNE

Birmingham forecast to Actual JUNE

New sales improved by 3 units to 145 homes this month from 142 in June and about even with 149 last year. Used sales were 1,389 homes in July down 2% from 1,417 last month, a decrease of 28, and up by 52 units from 1,337 last year(Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 4% lower at 9,723 vs. last month at 10,179 and 10,674 last year. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market. Active New listings decreased to 735 in July from 1,044 in June (the highest level of new homes active since September 2011), a decline of 309 units (Sect E p.3).  Housing permits were up in Jefferson County to 142 in May from 105 in April. Shelby County went from 49 to 25 in June. It is worth noting the high level of Multi-Family permits in Jefferson County of 432 Year to date compared with 322 in the same period last year. There has also been a high number of press mentions of new development activity not yet appearing in these numbers.

Absorption rate for New homes is at 5 months supply this month which is two months better than last year at this time. Last month though, shows 8 months of supply (Sect E p.3). The New homes for the most part have normal inventory levels in the 1-7 month range. (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in July shows 8 months, two months better than 10 months last year. Used Active listings at 8,988 are lower than the 9,715 last year (Sect E p.3). The market performance is highly area specific, so check the individual area charts. For instance, Mountain Brook has about four months of inventory except in the over $900,000 category, which has 8 months of inventory (38 homes) with thirteen sold in that price range last month . The average days on market for that category is 133.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 211, compared with 201 last month. The Used homes DOM was 127 in July, compared with 131 last month (Sect A p.18). Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $283,985 from $306.616 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales price for Sold Used homes increased to $198,971 from $196,973 last month (Sect A p2). The moving average price for all homes has been up steadily for the last year. (Sect A p2).

Note the MLS has added 20 new areas #320-570, which are placeholders for each county in the state. I have combined these into a single “other” area (400) with an aggregate of 7 sales last month.

TWB 8/9/2014                                                            

Alabama Coastal Real Estate Sales Slower in July

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of July 2014

Sales dollars declined 27% in July to $107,815,755 from June of $148,329,630. This is 14% off July last year at $125,659,355. (Sect A p.2). The 12 month moving average line of sales had continued to point up steadily for three years has can best be described as “squiggly.” I would characterize the market activity as “unusual.” Inventories continue trending down.

In concert with ACRE, The Alabama Center for Real Estate, we did projections for 2014 full year sales. We used the ACRE provided data for the projections, which differs slightly from the data in this report. We projected unit sales for Baldwin county increasing by 47.7% over 2013 levels. We have examined our methodology and removed 65 sales from the last quarter  of 2013 which were caused by a major condo project closing. This reduces the expected 2014 gain to 32% over 2013 and the projected condo increase of  8% over 2013  As of June, the cumulative year over year change in units is up 7%, far short of the adjusted forecast. The condo actuals are cumulatively about 4% below the forecast.

On a unit basis, sales of all houses were up 3% at 472 this month vs. last month at 590, which is up 17% from last year’s 502. There is still substantial inventory available to satisfy demand.

Used Home sales declined 16% to 431 this month vs. 512 last month, which is off 6% from last year’s 459 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 41 this month vs 78 last month and compared with 43 last year.

New listings for New homes increased to 129 from 108 in June. Used homes New listings decreased to 719 from 787 in June with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has once again been improving. In July, there were 3,739 Active Used homes, a reduction from 4,220 in June. The New home market, which peaked in July 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 442.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 7 months of inventory in July vs. 7 in June. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 9 months of inventory for July vs. 10 in June. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in July 2008 to 9 months this July. The inventory of homes in the higher price ranges remains high, homes over $400,000 have over a years supply.

Average sales price for all homes has been improving modestly for the past year. For New units, prices increased to  $263,042 from $246,896 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices decreased to $225,130 from $252,093 in June. The price trend is up for the year. Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in July was 202 this month vs. 203 last month. Days On Market for Used was 148 this month vs. 144 last month. Hopefully this month is not a harbinger of a slow fall sales season.

TWB 8/9/2014

1st Half Birmingham Real Estate Sales Up 6% From Last Year

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for June 2014

As expected, June was stronger than May. Dollar sales in June improved by 9% to $313,709,561 from May’s $287,922,936, up by 5% from last June’s $297,471,361. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales has flattened indicating uncertain market conditions. For the 1st six months of 2014,  sales were up 6% to $1,397,869,781 compared to $1,314,060,637 for the same period last year.

Unit sales were up 2% to 1,517 in June from 1,482 in May, an increase of 35. This is up 19% from last June at 1,268. The greater percentage increase, month to month, in dollars rather than units, indicates an increase in average prices, while the greater percentage gain year to year indicates a reduction in average prices. For the 1st 6 months total unit sales were up by 2% to 7,503 compared with 7,358 last year.

Using the ACRE data and results for forecasting, which are derived in a slightly different method than this report, we forecasted a full year gain of 8% for the full year. As of June the cumulative increase in units is 4%. We determined that the Birmingham MLS is assigning some sales to the Talladega market which were previously reported as part of Birmingham, thus reducing the reported sales in Birmingham, so the forecast is probably a bit more accurate than it appears on a “comparable” basis.

New sales improved by 4 units to 138 homes this month from 134 in May and about even with 139 last year. Used sales were 1,379 homes in June up 2% from 1,348 last month, an increase of 31, and up by 111 units from 1,268 last year(Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 4% lower at 9,545 vs. last month at 9,908 and 10,619 last year. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market. Active New listings decreased to 699 in June from 1,012 in May (the highest level of new homes active since September 2011), a decline of 313 units (Sect E p.3).  Housing permits were down in Jefferson County to 105 in May from 119 in April. Shelby County went from 45 to 49 in May. It appears that builders are trimming their activity.

Absorption rate for New homes is at 5 months supply this month which is two months better than last year at this time. Last month though, shows 7 months of supply (Sect E p.3). The New homes for the most part have normal inventory levels in the 1-7 month range. (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in June shows 8 months, one month better than 9 months last year. Used Active listings at 8,846 are lower than the 9,681 last year (Sect E p.3). The market performance is highly area specific, so check the individual area charts. For instance, Mountain Brook has about four months of inventory except in the over $900,000 category, which has 9 months of inventory (41 homes) with nine sold in that price range last month . The average days on market for that category is 166 indicating older inventory is moving.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 201, compared with 216 last month. The Used homes DOM was 131 in June, compared with 132 last month (Sect A p.18). Average sales price for Sold New homes increased to $302,064 from $292,819 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales price for Sold Used homes increased to $197,262 from $184,485 last month (Sect A p2). The moving average price for all homes has been up steadily for the last year. (Sect A p2).

Note the MLS has added 20 new areas #320-570, which seem to be placeholders for each county in the state. I have combined these into a single “other” area.

TWB 7/12/2014