Permits Charts
This is a bit of a work in progress but I think it is useful data. We use the Raw reported data rather than “imputed” data as we are suspicious of adjustment methods in these widely swinging economic times. Check the Census site for the original data, although not as nicely presented.
Jefferson County Permit Data
Through September 2009: Data Source: US Census Department, Chart, All rights reserved, TBrander
And here is Shelby county:
Shelby County Permits
Through September 2009: Data Source: US Census Department, Chart, All rights reserved, TBrander
Huntsville City Residential Building Permits:
Huntsville City Building Permits
Some data for Huntsville looks “strange” but it is what is reported to and by the Census Bureau. January & March data is “imputed” 2009. Through September 2009: Data Source: US Census Department, Chart, All rights reserved, TBrander
I think the Huntsville graph is plausible, because permits were driven up in 2007 in anticipation of base relocation and closing (BRAC). However, this past year houses haven’t been selling (imagine that). People can’t relocate to the area since they can’t sell their existing houses. Also, tougher financing affects both builders and buyers.
Well, I only posted the number of permits, and I agree that those numbers look plausible and they are the numbers as reported to the Census Department but when I used the dollar value of the permits, the value per house was consistently way low, in the neighborhood of $45,000 per house, even in Jefferson County (Birmingham) the permit values are more like $150,000 and up.
Home construction has been overleveraged and artificially overpriced since, IMO, about 1998 if not earlier. I had been considering tearing down the old house on my property and recreating it on a grander scale, but years of waiting for an architect in combination with the lousy markets tells me it’s time to pay out of pocket to fix what’s there. So that’s what I’m doing.
Housing, in general, needs to slide another 30 to 50 percent. Been way outta line for way too long.
David, I think that the comments are a bit extreme, don’t know where you are but in the Alabama markets the cost to build has actually been quite competitive. I sure don’t know how much down we have to go but I’m pretty sure at least in the Alabama markets it is not as extreme as you suggest. As to tearing down and rebuilding that is normally a pretty difficult deal to make pay, in most markets, and I’d agree almost an impossible one today. So remodel and fix up makes good sense!!