Tag Archives: Statistics

Alabama Coastal Real Estate Yet Another Record In November

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of November 2016

Sales dollars decreased 5% in November to $127,234,937 from October $133,794,557. This is up a remarkable 36% from last year’s record level of $93,511,408. (Sect A p.2). The 12 month moving average line of sales, after a pause during the summer months, appears to have resumed its upward trend. Lack of new construction now seems to be depressing sales somewhat. Inventories are continuing to trend down very consistently.

Sales in most price categories show consistent improvement as do inventories. Check out the chart on page A-17 to fully appreciate the inventory trends. Still, inventory remains high, but improving, at over a year for anything over $500,000. Note that inventories over a year is less and less, for instance the price ranges of $600,000-$800,000 are at just 12.7 months. With the $500,000-$600,000 at 15 months.

In concert with ACRE, The Alabama Center for Real Estate, we have projected expectations for 2016. We use the ACRE provided data for the projections, which differs slightly from the data in this report. The projection for 2016 located here expects projected home sales in 2016 of 5,139, which is a -1.74% difference from 2015 actual of  5,230. Year to date through October actual sales are 7% above expectations. 317 more units were sold through November than the 4,386 projected.

On a unit basis, sales of all houses were off 28 at 480 this month vs. last month at 508, which is up from last year’s healthy level of 400. Used Home sales decreased to 403 this month vs. 415 last month, which is up from last year’s 357 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 77 this month vs 92 last month and compared with 43 last year. New listings for New homes decreased to 135 from 202 in October. Used homes New listings decreased to 506 from 603 in October with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has been consistently improving. In November, there were 2,992 Active Used homes, a reduction from 3,417 in October and a new multi year low. New homes, which peaked in November 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sit at 618.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 7 months of inventory in November vs. 8 in October. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 6 months of inventory in November vs. 7 in October. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in October 2008 to 6 months this November. The inventory of homes in the upper price range remains high with homes priced $500,000 and over at a year’s supply, but even here we are seeing improvement. For instance the $600,000-$800,000 has only 12.7 months of inventory. I have been expecting construction to begin to pick-up in the under $400,000 range, and this has happened. Sales have been keeping up, so we have not seen an increase in inventory.

Average sales price for all homes has been static for the past year. For New units, average price increased to  $258,702 from $244,530 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices were virtually unchanged this month, $266,290 from $266,836 in October. Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in November was 172 vs last month of 188. Days On Market for Used was 166 vs. last month 153.

The results point to a strong upcoming year, I believe.

TWB 12/9/2016

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October Slow Month For Real Estate on the Alabama Coast

Baldwin County MLS* Observations for the month of October 2010 Real Estate Statistics for the Baldwin County, Alabama Coastal Areas

October was a slow month with dollar sales declining 10% to $54,577,754 from September’s
$60,378,552. This is 7% below October last year at $58,633,681 (Sect A p.2). As a result, the 12 month moving average line of sales is once again trending down. The sales results varied widely by area with several coastal areas showing some improvement.

Our chart in Section A p.18 shows the historical trends for absolute units of inventory and months of inventory for New and Used units. This chart has been showing some inventory reduction for four months which is not so much from sales as people simply not putting properties on the market.

Inventories remain very high. However, the number of active listings is now at the lowest level since 2006, which is positive.

The 12 month moving average line of unit sales for Used homes had a pronounced upward slope
through six months ago. But with the spill, it now shows a downward trend due to the size and counter cyclical nature of the sales drop. On a unit basis, sales of all houses remained even at 273 vs. 275 last month, which is somewhat lower than last year’s 284.

Used house unit sales were up to 253 from 243 last month. New home unit sales declined to
20 from 32 last month (Sect A p.18). The low number of sales of new homes reflects the intense
competition from existing, and an extended slowdown of new construction.

New listings for New homes decreased to 24 in October from 39 in September, which is in line with sales. Used houses New listings decreased to 522 this month from 635 in September.
The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has once again started to decline slightly. In October, there were 4,536 Active Used homes, a 11% reduction from 5,075 in September. The New home market which peaked in October 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 377.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 12 months of inventory for October vs. 13 in September.
The Absorption rate for Used homes was 16 months of inventory for October vs. 18 in September. (Sect A p.17).

Average sales price for all homes has been trending down. For New units prices decreased to
$187,083 from $210,403 last month. Life is still very difficult for those trying to sell higher priced homes, and inventory continues to climb. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices decreased to $200,993 from $220,764 in September.

Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in October was 168 this month vs. 231 last month. Days On Market for Used was 149 this month vs. 146 last month.

TWB 11/13/2010

Coastal Alabama Real Estate Remains Slow

Alabama Gulf State Park Beach, Gulf of Mexico

Image via Wikipedia

Baldwin County MLS* Observations for the month of August 2010: Real Estate Statistics for the Baldwin County, Alabama Coastal Areas:

Hopefully, with the leak capped and there being no apparent major damage to the beaches, life will begin to return to normal, whatever that means. Unfortunately, it will be a while longer; August was a difficult month. August dollar sales dropped from July (unit sales were up slightly see below). Again, this month this was the lowest corresponding month sales level on record. For the several months prior to the spill, the sales statistics had been showing signs of a bottom, and even some signs of recovery. August sales dropped 5% to $56,652,614 from July’s $59,930,892. This is 22% below August last year at $72,221,248 (Sect A p.2). As a result, the 12 month moving average line of sales is once again trending down. The sales results varied widely by area with the most coastal areas being hit quite hard.

Our chart in Section A p.18, shows the historical trends for absolute units of inventory and months of inventory for New and Used units. This chart is now showing some inventory reduction, not so much from sales as people simply not putting properties on the market. Inventories remain very high.

The 12 month moving average line of unit sales for Used homes had a pronounced upward slope through four months ago. But with the spill, it now shows a downward trend due to the size and counter cyclical nature of the sales drop. On a unit basis, sales of all houses improved to 305 vs. 288 last month, which is about even with last year’s 296.

Used house unit sales were up at 277 from 263 last month. New home unit sales improved to 28 from 25 last month (Sect A p.18). Note that we are seeing some small number of home sales being reversed back to unsold in last month.The low number of sales of new homes reflects the intense competition from existing, and an extended slowdown of new construction.

New listings for New homes increased to 65 in August from 45 in July, about double the number of sales. Used houses New listings increased to 673 this month from 611 in July.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has once again started to level out, or even decline slightly. In August, there were 4,929 Active Used homes, a 9% reduction from 5,401 in July. The New home market which peaked in August 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 411.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 13 months of inventory for August vs. 13 in July.  The Absorption rate for Used houses was 18 months of inventory for August vs. 19 in July. (Sect A p.17).

Average sales price for all homes has been trending down. For New units prices increased to $204,348 from $180,737 last month. Life is still very difficult for those trying to sell higher priced homes, and inventory continues to climb. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices decreased to $183,866 from $210,694 in July.

Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in August were 230 this month vs. 229 last month. Days On Market for Used was 164 this month vs. 162 last month.

TWB 9/11/2010

May Birmingham Area Sales Drop After Tax Incentives Expire

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for May 2010

I use total dollar sales as an overall indicator for the market; it comes from my banking background, rather than unit sales. I was surprised and disappointed to see that for the 1st time in ten years the total Dollar volume from April to May declined. Sales in May declined to $ 208,975,305 down 4% from April at $217,198,109. This is a decline of .5% from last May ($209,960,262). This reflected the impact of the termination of the tax credit at the end of April, although I would have expected more closing activity to be reported in May. Again the expectation for sales next month is to trend up (see the chart Sec A p.4), but with the expiration of the tax credit, and the transition to more normal, non-incentivized sales the prospects rest both on the seasonal factors as well as hopefully, the improving economy. The twelve month moving average line of total dollar sales chart remains fairly “flat”.

Total unit sales declined by 4% to 1,308 in May from 1,364 in April, a decrease of 56. This is a 9% improvement from May 2009 (1,203). New sales improved 2% to 202 homes this month from 198 in April, an increase of 4 units. Used sales deteriorated 5% to 1,106 homes in May from 1,266 last month, a decrease of 160 (Sect E p.3).

A somewhat larger than normal inventory increase in both New and Used homes is underway. For this month total inventory is down 2% from last year at this time at 13,327 vs. 13,587. Active New listings decreased to 1,297 in May from 1,642 in April, a decline of 345 units (Sect E p.3). In April it appears that builders decreased permits. The number of housing permits has decreased somewhat to 83 in April vs. 91 in the prior month for Jefferson County. Shelby County also declined modestly (See the web site for details). New inventory is now below the 1,800 level which reflects more normal pre-2004 levels, approaching a more normal level, now 6.9 months supply at the reduced sales pace. In light of the heavy Used inventory, and low sales levels, I would not be in a rush to build! (Sect C p.1, (compare it to last month) and Sect E p.3).  It is somewhat distressing that a number of more affluent areas are getting a lot of new listings. Homewood, Area 230, is the most dramatic example, with used inventory now 395, very close to last month’s all-time high of 402 Used homes, a 14 month supply.

For Used homes the months of inventory has begun to creep up, which is a concern. Absorption rate for New homes improved to 6.9 months of inventory, which is better than the 9.4 months last year at this time (Sect E p.3). New house inventories in the higher price ranges (above $500,000) remain excessive at over a year. That situation is getting worse as new listings come on, and sales are sluggish.

May 2010 shows 12,030 Used Active listings (Sect E p.3). Absorption for Used homes is at 12.6 months of supply. This is slightly worse than the 12.4 months of supply last year at this time (Sect E p.3). The higher price ranges are doing poorly and deteriorating as new listings are adding to the oversupply. The market for houses requiring “Jumbo” loans remains stagnant.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses was 206 compared to last month at 232. The Used house DOM was 138 in May compared with 139 last month (Sect A p.18). (Note: we no longer attempt to subtract pending days from active as it was causing some very wild distortions)

Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $198,459 from $201,264 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes increased to $152,700 from $152,099 last month (Sect A p2). The twelve month moving average price line for New homes is heading down, reflecting that most sales activity continues to be on the lower end of the market. But the average price for Used has begun to move up, slightly reflecting a bit of activity in the upper price ranges. (Sect A p2). It’s hard to read too much into average prices with the shifting mix.

TWB 6/13/10

Alabama Center For Real Estate Starts New Survey

We are providing development and analytical support for this new survey. As our readers know, we provide objective, accurate and timely reporting. We are very happy to be working with ACRE on this project. It will extend our collective ability to give the industry the tools it needs. Take a moment and sign up so that you can participate.

Have you or your membership grown a little tired of real estate pundits from outside our state dictating and/or prophesying how “Alabama” real estate will fare in the coming months and years without as much as talking with an Alabama real estate professional or stepping foot in our state?

ACRE, with oversight from our ACRE Leadership Council, comprised of a broad group of “Alabama” professionals engaged in different aspects of real estate, has created the “Alabama Real Estate Confidence Index (ARECI)” quarterly survey and is ready to roll it out!

As with any survey, it will only have its desired impact when the sampling size (survey participants) is large enough to cull sufficient responses (data) thus allowing for subsequent meaningful analysis. The initial survey will gauge the expectations from participants from the 4th quarter 2009 to the 1st quarter 2010.

As a leader of your respective real estate organization, I am asking on behalf of ACRE, that your organization partner with us by assisting with efficient distribution (via e-blast of survey link to your membership) and supporting our efforts by encouraging your members to participant. This quarterly report will gauge the “residential” and “commercial” market separately and will be available to you and your membership at no cost by simply visiting our website or a link that you create from your website.

ACRE’s need of assistance from you:

1) distribute this survey link upon receipt via e-blast from your organization to its membership (with your encouragement to participate)

2) for the long-term convenience of your membership, when you have time, perhaps create a permanent direct link on your association home page – here is link (after initial sign-up – subsequent quarterly survey can easily be taken in less than 1 minute)


FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS:

• How will ACRE use the information gathered & how can the business community use the information gathered?

The Alabama Real Estate Confidence Index (ARECI) will measure real estate expectations (residential & commercial gauged separately) for the upcoming quarter gathered from a broad group of real estate professionals from every area of the state. With six key indicators and a composite index, the survey will represent the pulse of the state’s real estate market.

The index will represent another invaluable tool for our industry to use as a general indicator of local/statewide outlook & trends; decision making & short-term planning; for comparing to their own projections; and simply for sharing with clients and customers.

• Why does ACRE think this is needed?
Although there are national indexes, none specifically address the Alabama real estate market. While we certainly understand that our market does not operate in a vacuum, we still firmly believe that our statewide practitioners have a clearer understanding of their “local” markets and we hope that our index can provide a conduit for their market knowledge in the aggregate to be effectively and usefully delivered to our industry and to the consumers we serve on a daily basis.

• Who can participate and how?
The electronic survey will poll professionals in all real estate related fields (not just sales). The panelist demographic section is very important and need only be completed once when you first log-in to participate. It will include two broad area(s) to select from (either/or): commercial or residential.  The panelist will also provide where he/she conducts the majority of its business so that we can also provide results by geographic area. In addition to its distribution by supporting real estate organizations, a link to the survey will always be available on ACRE’s homepage, www.acre.cba.ua.edu.

• When will the first report come out?
The plan/goal is to release the first report representing market expectations for the 1st quarter of 2010 sometime in early January 2010. However, this goal hinges on receiving a big enough sampling size (ie the importance of your association’s support). At the end of process, if we feel that we need an increased sample size (that broader public awareness would may provide) – we will include these survey responses with our recent “beta” testing and the first report will arrive the following quarter (2nd Qtr 2010). Speaking of our recent “beta” test, the participant commentary was very impressive and actually is already providing for useful market analysis at the Center.

With the support of each real estate association/organization, this index can have a truly significant and positive impact on our statewide real estate industry for years to come.
Thank you in advance for your support!
With the utmost appreciation,
Grayson


Grayson M. Glaze, JD, CPM, CCIM
Executive Director
Alabama Center for Real Estate
The University of Alabama
127 Bidgood Hall
Box 870221
Tuscaloosa, AL 35487-0221
205-348-4117

August Foreclosure Data From Alabama Title

I am pleased to present what I believe to be the best local foreclosure data. Unlike the national “foreclosure filing” data which represents delinquent loans which may or may not result in an actual foreclosure, that is most often reported, this is real foreclosure data, filed at the courthouse, from actual transactions reported on a consistent basis and timely basis. We were pleased to help Alabama Title with presentation ideas for this data.

Key Points for the Month (August 2009)

Jefferson County foreclosures rose in July to 430 from 277 the prior month. In August 268 foreclosures were filed. Overall, foreclosures year-to-date are down 15.2 percent in Jefferson County.

August 2009 Jeffferson County Forecloseure data

August 2009 Jefferson County Foreclosure data

Shelby County: Shelby County foreclosures jumped from 57 in July to 73 in August. However, year-todate foreclosures are down slightly by two percent. Generally, Shelby County foreclosure numbers have remained more stable than those of Jefferson County.

Augshelbyforeclse

August 2009 Shelby County Foreclosure Data

Despite a mini-surge in foreclosures in Jefferson County in early August, the real news for the month is the continued decline of mortgage activity. Despite a short boom in refinances during the first quarter of the year, mortgage filings fell to their lowest level since December 2008, when credit markets faltered after a series of large corporate failures.
Mortgage filings typically decrease in the Fall reflecting the seasonality of the housing market. However, the steep decline over last year’s numbers – absent a decrease in interest rates such as occurred last December – does not bode well for the mortgage market.

via: The Alabama Title Company Mortgage and Foreclosure Report Sept 24, 2009

Bank Failures and Aquisition, C&D Loans

From Our Friends at Caculated risk, Click to get the whole article and charts. I know many of our clients have C&D loans so I felt you should take a look at this.

 Best, Tom

by CalculatedRisk on 3/11/2009 12:45:00 PM

From James Saft at Reuters: Builder loans are the forgotten land mine in U.S. credit crisis (ht Michael)

Banks in the United States face a new source of write-downs and failures in the coming year, as loans made to developers to finance residential and commercial property development rapidly go bad.

Called acquisition, construction and development, or ADC, loans, they total 8.4 percent of all bank loans, just below a 30-year peak, and are used by developers to buy land, put in infrastructure and construct housing or commercial space.

…..Of particular concern is that ADC loans are concentrated in smaller banks, which tend to have deep ties to local developers. ADC loans account for 47 percent of nonperforming loans at small banks, compared with 14 percent at larger banks.