Tag Archives: statewide conditions

Alabama Real Estate Confidence Index Up Compared to 4th Quarter 2011

Summary:

The survey projects expectations for the 4th quarter of 2012. The scale ranges from 0-100 with 0 being much worse, 100 being much better, and 50 indicating no change expected.

The professional Real Estate community’s optimism tempered across the board  for the 4th  quarter. The outlook for sales (yellow) this quarter is still showing improvement expected, from 58 to 52 this quarter, but not at the same pace as last quarter. This is 6 points higher than last year at this time. The expectations reflect a continued improvement in outlook when compared with the last two years in the 4th quarter.

Indicators 4th Quarter

Indicators 4th Quarter

While all scores are down modestly except for price expectations, which still indicate modest declines in prices which improved from 48 to 49. Credit availability scores went from 48 to 45, still better than 4th quarter levels in prior years. The national score at 47, down from 49, last quarter, indicates that respondents are more pessimistic about the overall economic picture. The participants remained positive on the statewide conditions at 53 down 4 points from last quarter. Sales expectations are slightly positive at 52, down 6 points from last quarter. Inventory expectations remained at 52 indicating continued improving conditions expected. Sellers are likely to be frustrated by pricing, and buyers will continue to have problems getting financing.

Regional Results:

The coastal region continued to remain the most optimistic in the state. On an overall basis all areas remain above 50, indicating expansion expected.

Regional Indicators 4th Quarter

Regional Indicators 4th Quarter

This quarter showed deterioration in all measures and in all regions. This is a seasonal phenomena. None the less the results are still encouraging, with most measures still in the expansion zone, over 50, and well above prior year 4th quarter indications.

Commercial market participants (the majority of the respondents are from the Birmingham market area) moved to projecting a neutral market this quarter (Total Stat) at 50 this quarter vs. 52 and 52 vs. 52 last quarter for sales expectations. Price expectations are still soft, at 49 vs. 47 last quarter indicating pricing pressure. The score for credit availability remains constructive, at 49 down from 51 points from last quarter.

North Region 

North Alabama experienced a modest deterioration in most scores.  The total score of 49, down from 51, a 2 point decline from last quarter, but as with the other areas, still well ahead of prior year 4th quarter scores..

North Central Region

The North Central Region overall score declined to 49 from 51 last quarter, The sales score declined 4 points to 51. Inventory is continuing to improve at 52 with, pricing, and credit below the 50 mark with pricing at 48 and credit at 47.

South Central Region

The South Central Region participants outlook for sales declined 6 points to 50.

South Region

The Southern Region sales score declined 8 points to 55. Rural participants sales expectations declined 12 points to 51.

About the Alabama Real Estate Confidence Index and Survey:

More than 500 professionals responded to the 4th quarter 2012 survey which was conducted during the month of September 2012. The survey, conducted by the Alabama Center For Real Estate now has the largest participation of any real estate survey. It provides important market insights. Full history and scores for each market segment are located here on the web http://goo.gl/OQyc9

The ACRE Leadership Council  determined the need for a statewide industry confidence index and this was adopted as the Council’s first initiative. Tom Brander, Council Member, was selected by the Council and Grayson Glaze, ACRE Executive Director, to spearhead and work with the Center to conduct and produce its Alabama Real Estate Confidence Index (ARECI). The Council appreciates everyone who participated.

For further information contact Tom Brander at Tombrander@tombrander.com or Grayson Glaze at gglaze@cba.ua.edu

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Alabama Real Estate Confidence Index 1Q 2012

The survey projects expectations for the 1st quarter of 2012. The scale ranges from 0-100 with 0 being much worse, 100 being much better, and 50 indicating no change expected.

The professional Real Estate community is considerably more optimistic. The outlook for sales (yellow) this quarter is back up into the expected expansion area at 56, a full ten point improvement from last quarter. This is approximately even with the score for the last two years at this time, it appears that there is some seasonality built in to the expectations.

ACRE 2012 1q Overall

ACRE 2012 1q Overall

The national score at 48, up from 38 last quarter, indicates that respondents are fairly neutral on the overall economic picture. The participants moved to positive sentiment on the statewide conditions at 54 up 9 points from last quarter. The statewide overall score declined (see green line above). Sales expectations are more positive at 56 again up 10 points from last quarter. Inventory, price and credit indications are all below the 50 mark, indicating continued pressure on these metrics, but markedly improved from last quarter. Sellers are likely to be frustrated by competition and pricing, and buyers will continue to have problems getting financing.

Regional Results:

ACRE 2012 1q Regional Results

ACRE 2012 1q Regional Results

The sales expectations for each region are within 2 points of each other from 55-57.

This quarter showed a marked improvement in all measures and in all regions. To some degree this may be a seasonal phenomena, there was a similar improvement last year.

Commercial market participants (the majority of the respondents are from the Birmingham market area) moved to projecting an improving market this quarter at 54 this quarter vs. 47 last for sales expectations. Price expectations remain weak, at 45 vs 41 last quarter indicating continued pricing pressure in all markets. The score for credit availability is neutral, at 48 up 7 points from last quarter.

North Region

North Alabama experienced a consistent improvement in all scores.  The total score of 51, up from 42, a 9 point improvement from last quarter.  Improvement was particularly noticeable in the Rural markets, where the overall score improved to 51 from 39 last quarter.

North Central Region

The North Central Region overall score improved to 50 from 43 last quarter, The sales score improved 8 points to 55. Inventory is roughly neutral at 51 with, pricing, and credit are below the 50 mark at 43, and 46 respectively.

South Central Region

The South Central Region participants outlook for sales improved 13 points to 55.  Rural participants sales expectations improved 15 points to 50.

South Region

The Southern Region sales score improved 9 points to 56. Rural participants sales expectations improved 11 points to 50.

About the Alabama Real Estate Confidence Index and Survey:

Over 500 professionals responded to the 1st quarter 2012 survey which was conducted during the month of December 2011. The survey, conducted by the Alabama Center For Real Estate now has the largest participation of any real estate survey. It provides important market insights. Full history and scores for each market segment are located here on the web http://goo.gl/5dEOV

The ACRE Leadership Council  determined the need for a statewide industry confidence index and this was adopted as the Council’s first initiative. Tom Brander, Council Member, was selected by the Council and Grayson Glaze, ACRE Executive Director, to spearhead and work with the Center to conduct and produce its Alabama Real Estate Confidence Index (ARECI). The Council appreciates everyone who participated.

 

For further information contact Tom Brander at Tombrander@tombrander.com or Grayson Glaze at gglaze@cba.ua.edu