Tag Archives: Sales

Birmingham January Real Estate Sales Robust

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for January 2017

January saw a continuation of the pick up in dollar sales over last year, while unit sales also increased from last years’ level. Prices seem to be modestly increasing. Total dollar sales for January were $206,912,455 up 13% from $183,327,923 last year, and down 24% from last month at $272,571,925.

Total Unit sales were off 22% at 1,020 in January from 1,312 in December, a decrease of 292. This is up by 3% and 22 from last January at 987. New sales were off to 120 homes this month, and 210 in December, and up by 16 from 104 last year. The low inventory level of new homes suggests a good environment for builders, and prices have begun to show a more solid uptrend. Used sales were 900 homes in January, off 18% from 1,102 last month, a decrease of 202, up by 17 units  from 883 last year (Sect E p.3).

ACRE numbers are slightly different from those we report. With ACRE, we released our month by month 2016 forecast which can be seen here: ACRE. For Birmingham, the full year projection for 2016 = 13,460, a 1.25% difference from 2015 actual of 13,294. The cumulative error is plus 9% for the year; that is actuals are ahead of projections of 14,705 through year end, an increase of 11% over 2015. The forecast for 2017 should be out shortly.

Housing permits are no longer available in the same format from the Census bureau. I may be able to resume reporting once I can find a new method of sourcing the data, but at this point I do not know if that will be possible.

Total inventory is slightly lower this month at 7,838 vs. last month at 7,968 and less than 9,123 last year. (Sect C p.1). Active New listings decreased to 968 in January from 1,100 in December (Sect E p.3). Absorption rate for New homes is at 6 months supply this month, which is less than 7 months last year. (Sect E p.3). The New homes have normal inventory levels in the 4-8 month range depending on area and price range. (Sect C p.1). The level of inventory, both in months of inventory and housing units, has been continuing to improve for the year.

Absorption for Used homes in January shows 5 months, which is less than the 6 last year. Used Active listings at 6,870 are down from last month of 6.868, and quite a bit less than 8,053 last year (Sect E p.3). Inventory levels have continued to trend down from prior years. Market performance is highly area specific, so check the individual area charts. For instance, Mountain Brook has between 1 and 4 months of inventory, 3 months overall, except in the over $900,000 category, which has 6 months of inventory (35 homes), with 5 sold in that price range last month. There are a number of MLS areas, particularly those known as the “over the mountain” communities, showing similarly low levels, including Homewood, which has 3 months of inventory.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 180 compared with last month at 271. The Used homes DOM was 126 in January vs 119 last month, (Sect A p.18). Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $309,844 from $312,947 last month (Sect A p2). Over a several month period prices seem to be increasing. Average sales price for Sold Used was $188,590 this month compared to $187,707 last month. (Sect A p2).

All in all, the market continues to look quite healthy.

TWB 2/13/2017  

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January Coastal Alabama Real Estate Off To A Robust Start

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of January 2017

Sales dollars decreased 27% in January to $113,455,164 from December $155,649,713. This is up 24% from last year’s record level of $91,143,759. (Sect A p.2). The 12 month moving average line of sales, after a pause during the summer months, has been heading up substantially.

Sales in most price categories show consistent improvement as do inventories. Check out the chart on page A-17 to fully appreciate the inventory trends. Still, inventory remains high, but improving, for anything over $500,000. Note that price ranges in inventories over a year are fewer, for instance, the price ranges of $600,000-$800,000 are at just 10-11 months, with the $500,000-$600,000 at 13 months. Amazingly, the over $900,000 category is now at 27 months with 158 active and 6 sold this month.

In concert with ACRE, The Alabama Center for Real Estate, we have projected expectations for 2016. We use the ACRE provided data for the projections, which differs slightly from the data in this report. The projection for 2016 located here expected projected home sales in 2016 of 5,139, which is a -1.74% difference from 2015 actual of  5,230. Full year actual sales are 8% above expectations. 5571 sales were recorded for the year which is 432 more than projected and 341 more than 2015.  New projections for 2017 will be out once all the January results are available statewide.

On a unit basis, sales of all houses were off 116 at 444 this month vs. last month at 560, which is up from last year’s healthy level of 380. Used Home sales decreased to 361 this month vs. 458 last month, which is up from last year’s 321 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 83 this month vs 102 last month and compared with 59 last year. New listings for New homes increased to 136 from 132 in December. Used homes New listings increased to 759 from 347 in December with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has been consistently improving. In January, there were 2,688 Active Used homes, a reduction from 2,995 in December and a new multi year low. New homes, which peaked in January 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sit at 597.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 6 months of inventory in January vs. 7 in December. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 6 months of inventory in January vs. 6 in December. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in December 2008 to 6 months this January. I have been expecting construction to begin to pick-up in the under $400,000 range, and this has happened. Sales have been keeping up, so we have not seen an increase in inventory.

Average sales price for all homes has been static for the past year. For New units, average price decreased to  $244,689 from $268,115 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices were off this month, to $258,022 from $280,135 in December. Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in January was 201 vs last month of 183. Days On Market for Used was 158 vs. last month 156. In my opinion, the results point to a strong upcoming year.        
TWB 2/13/2017

Alabama Coastal Real Estate Continues To Outperform In October

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of October 2015

Sales dollars decreased 4% in October to $119,516,690 from September $124,233,462. This is 5% better than October last year at $113,643,200 and the highest September sales total on record. (Sect A p.2). The 12 month moving average line of sales, which had continued to point up steadily for three years, except for the last part of last year and the first few months of this year, has now gotten a healthy upwards tilt. The 12 month average is close to the record levels achieved in 2006 with more homes sold, but at lower average prices. Lack of new construction now seems to be depressing sales somewhat. Inventories are trending down.

Sales in most price categories show consistent improvement. Inventories are improving, but remain high at over a year for anything over $500,000. This month the $400,000-$500,000 inventory dipped to 11 months.

In concert with ACRE, The Alabama Center for Real Estate, we have projected expectations for 2015. We use the ACRE provided data for the projections, which differs slightly from the data in this report. The projection for 2015 located here expects a unit increase of 4.75% over 2014 actual. Through October cumulative sales are running 8% ahead of the projection. For the month of October sales were 5% above the projection.

On a unit basis, sales of all houses were off 12% at 478 this month vs. last month at 543, which is 2% below last year’s healthy level of 487. There is still substantial inventory (used) available to satisfy demand.

Used Home sales decreased 11% to 411 this month vs. 461 last month, which is off 6% from last year’s 438 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 67 this month vs 82 last month and compared with 49 last year.

New listings for New homes decreased to 102 from 112 in September. Used homes New listings decreased to 652 from 699 in September with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has once again been improving. In October, there were 3,443 Active Used homes, a reduction from 4,018 in September. The New home market, which peaked in October 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 479.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 7 months of inventory in October vs. 8 in September. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 8 months of inventory in October vs. 9 in September. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in September 2008 to 8 months this October. The inventory of homes in the upper price range remains high with homes over $500,000 at over a year’s supply, but even here we are seeing improvement. I would expect to see construction begin to pick-up in the under $400,000 range, but so far have not seen it.

Average sales price for all homes has been improving modestly for the past year. For New units, prices increased to  $293,618 from $245,318 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices increased to $242,930 from $225,851 in September. The price trend is up for the year. Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in October was 177 vs last month of 164. Days On Market for Used was 143 compared to last month 147.
TWB 11/17/2015

Birmingham Area Real Estate Sales Slower in August

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for August 2015

In June the Birmingham MLS changed its base system. We have recoded the data to be consistent. Let me know if you see anything strange!

Dollar sales in August experienced a seasonal decline of 22% to $282,283,392 from July’s $360,310,522, off by 5% over last August’s of $297,202,353. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales has flattened. It seems to me that there has been a somewhat larger number of late reported sales which means that prior month totals are higher than what we showed last month by larger amounts than has historically been the case. It is important to view overall trend and not get hung up on the precision of the latest month’s number.

Total Unit sales were down 18% to 1,434 in August from 1,748 in July, a decrease of 314. This is off 4% from last August at 1511. New sales were even at 160 homes this month and July and up from 150 last year. The price pressure and low inventory levels of new homes suggests a good environment for builders. Used sales were 1,274 homes in August, down 20% from 1,588 last month, a decrease of 314, and off by 87 units or 6% from 1,445 last year (Sect E p.3).

ACRE numbers are slightly different from those we report. With ACRE, we released our 2015 forecast which can be seen here: ACRE. For August, the latest available: August sales were 8%  or 62 unit below our forecast. ACRE’s year-to-date sales forecast through August projected 9,211 closed transactions while the actual sales were 9,265 units, a cumulative variance of .6%.

Total inventory is about even this month at 10,216 vs. last month at 10,288 and about even with 10,162 last year. Active New listings decreased to 936 in August from 1,015 in July (Sect E p.3).

Housing permits were up in Jefferson County to 130 in July from 109 in June, which is up from 101 last year. Shelby County went from 38 to 65 in July, up from 42 last year. We are seeing a more significant number of multi-family construction units (which we do not formally track or report), in most markets. I am pleased to see increases in new home building.

Absorption rate for New homes is at 6 months supply this month, which is even with 6 months last year. (Sect E p.3). The New homes for the most part have normal inventory levels in the 1-7 month range depending on area and price range. The $800,000-$900,000 range has 22 months of supply, however (Sect C p.1).

Absorption for Used homes in August shows 8 months which is about even with 9 months last year. Used Active listings at 9,280 are even with last month at 9,273 and about the same as 9,291 last year (Sect E p.3). Market performance is highly area specific, so check the individual area charts. For instance, Mountain Brook has between 3 and 9 months of inventory except in the over $900,000 category, which has 10 months of inventory (46 homes), with 2 sold in that price range last month . The average days on market for that category is 388. There are a number of MLS areas showing similarly low levels of inventory, including Homewood and Fultondale.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 173 compared with last month at 194. The Used homes DOM was 113 in August vs 117 last month, (Sect A p.18). Average sales price for Sold New homes increased to $302,850 from $294,625 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales price for Sold Used homes decreased to $183,538 from $197,211 last month (Sect A p2). The moving average price for all homes has been up steadily for the past year. (Sect A p2).
TWB 9/11/2015  

Alabama Coastal Real Estate Sales Continue Fast Pace In August

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of August 2015

Sales dollars decreased 20% in August to $123,895,752 from July $155,766,731. This is 5% better than August last year at $118,150,531. (Sect A p.2). The 12 month moving average line of sales which had continued to point up steadily for three years, except for the last part of last year and the first few months of this year, has now gotten a healthy upwards tilt. Last year was the best sales year since 2005, and the prior five months were substantially above that level.  This month was lower than 2006, but above 2014. The lack of new construction now seems to be depressing sales somewhat. Inventories continue trending down.

Sales in most price categories have been showing consistent improvement. Inventories are improving but remain high at over a year for anything over $400,000.

In concert with ACRE, The Alabama Center for Real Estate, we have projected expectations for 2015. We use the ACRE provided data for the projections, which differs slightly from the data in this report. The projection for 2015 located here expects a unit increase of 4.75% over 2014 actual. Through August cumulative sales are running 8% ahead of the projection. For the month of August sales were 1.1% below the projection.

On a unit basis, sales of all houses were off?? 2% at 550 this month vs. last month at 624, which is 8% above last year’s healthy level of 507. There is still substantial inventory available to satisfy demand.

Used Home sales decreased 5% to 483 this month vs. 540 last month, which is up 22% from last year’s 453 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 67 this month vs 84 last month and compared with 54 last year.

New listings for New homes increased to 108 from 98 in July. Used homes New listings decreased to 690 from 766 in July with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has once again been improving. In August, there were 3,580 Active Used homes, a reduction from 4,183 in July. The New home market, which peaked in August 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 458.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 7 months of inventory in August vs. 8 in July. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 8 months of inventory in August vs. 9 in July. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in July 2008 to 8 months this August. The inventory of homes in the upper price range remains high with homes over $400,000 at over a year’s supply, but even here we are seeing improvement. I would expect to see construction begin to pick-up in the under $400,000 range, but so far have not seen it.

Average sales price for all homes has been improving modestly for the past year. For New units, prices increased to  $274,761 from $235,453 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices decreased to $218,399 from $251,831 in July. The price trend is up for the year. Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in August was 172 vs last month of 174. Days On Market for Used was 172 compared to last month 152.

TWB 9/13/2015

Birmingham November Home Sales Up 1% over 2012

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for November 2013

Birmingham Nov Projection to Actual

Birmingham Nov Projection to Actual

Dollar sales in November declined by an expected seasonal 12% to $182,673,229 from October’s $206,744,372, up slightly  by 1% from last November’s $181,012,718. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to move up indicating continued improving market conditions. This is reasonable performance in the winter sales season. Early projections for next year are encouraging; sorry I can’t be more specific yet.

Unit sales were off 16% to 995 in November from 1,181 in October, a decrease of 186. This is off 6% from November 2012 at 1,059.This number will increase as late sales are reported. Our ABRE/ACRE Projections for 2013 projected 1,070 sales for November. For November, actual sales for the month were 7% worse than projections and 1% higher than year to date. Please see here for a summary of the projections http://goo.gl/nytW8 and the spreadsheet with details and month by month projections by area http://goo.gl/GEYWa (see the tabs on the bottom). New sales decreased by 27 units to 118 homes this month from 145 in October and are off by 12 from 130 last year. Used sales declined 15% to 877 homes in November from 1,036 last month, a decrease of 159, and up by 52 units from 929 last year(Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 8% lower than last month at 9,195 vs. 9,951 last year and 10,168 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. We are seeing a seasonal downtick in inventory and it is slightly lower than prior years, although New home inventories are beginning to look a bit high. Active New listings decreased to 804 in November from 1,072 in October, a decline of 268 units (Sect E p.3).  Housing permits were up in Jefferson County to 122 in October from 86 in September and up from 77 in the year ago period. Shelby County went from 16 to 28 in October. Note that the census dept has caught up to October from the shutdown.

Absorption rate for New homes is edging up. New homes are at 6 months supply this month which is one month better than 7 last year at this time. Last month though, shows 8 months of supply (Sect E p.3). The New homes for the most part have normal inventory levels in the 1-7 month range. The  $700,000- $800,000 new inventory is at 14 months (7 homes). (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in November shows 8 months,one month better than 9 months last year. Used Active listings at 8,385 are lower than the 9,083 last year (Sect E p.3). The number of homes listed in the over $600,000 price range has been climbing somewhat faster than sales, resulting in some upward drift in the months of sales (generally over a year). The market performance is highly area specific, so check the area charts. For instance, Mountain Brook has about three months of inventory except in the over $900,000 category which has 8 months of inventory (29 homes) with four sold in that price range last month . The average days on market for that category is 240 indicating a some older listings are moving.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 213 compared to last month at 170. The Used homes DOM was 135 in November, compared with 135 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in about 4  months.

Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $271,066 from $281,859 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales price for Sold Used homes increased to $171,822 from $160,111 last month (Sect A p2). The moving average price for Used Homes has been up steadily for the last year. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has also been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, New and Used, are improving  (Sect A p2).

TWB 12/14/13

Huntsville November Residental Sales Slower Than Last Year

Huntsville/North Alabama Area MLS Observations: Real Estate Market November 2013

Huntsville Nov Projection to Actual

Huntsville Nov Projection to Actual

November sales declined by 16% to $106,952,847 vs. October at $127,291,004. This was off 12% from last year’s $121,727,839. The twelve month moving average line on the total dollar sales chart is heading up. This month’s results were somewhat lower than expectations ( but, within 6%).

Total unit sales declined 13% to 691 in November vs. 796 in October, a decrease of 105. This was 4% lower than last year at 722.

Our projections for ACRE and Brander Real Estate for 2013 called for 734 sales in November with actual results 6% under that, and year to date volume is 1% lower than our projection. See here http://goo.gl/nytW8 for an article sumarizing the projections. Here is the spreadsheet with month by month projections by area http://goo.gl/GEYWa (see the tabs on the bottom). My preliminary work on next year’s projections is, as yet, indeterminate.

New sales increased to 120 this month vs. 143 last month, off 23.

Used sales decreased to 571 this month vs. 653 last month, off 82 (Sect E  p.3).

Inventory levels remain stubbornly high. Used inventory levels remain high this month at 11 months (see the chart Sect C p.1), with the situation continuing to be particularly challenged in the higher price ranges. Used homes over $400,000 have more than two years of inventory. Looking at the overall absorption chart (Sect C p1) it appears that used home inventories (in units) are approaching historical highs.

New home absorption is 9 months of inventory overall, and this has been climbing)(E-1). The New Home inventory level in the $300,000-$500,000 is approximately 5-6 months. (Not bad!).

August housing permits issued were 85 in October compared with 91 in September (chart on the web site). Note that the census dept has caught up from the shutdown.

Total Active listings decreased this month to 9,185 compared to last month’s 9,371, and above last year at this time at 8,437, with the reduction in the current month exaggerated due to month-end expirations. (Sect A p.4 and Sect E p.3).

Active New listings decreased to 1,359 this month from 1,543 in October, down 184. (Sect E p.3). Active Used listings decreased to 7,286 this month from 7,828 in October, down 542 and slightly above last year’s amount at this time of 7,167. (Sect E p.3).

Average Days on Market for Sold New homes was 157 vs. 155 days last month, with Used at 151 in November compared with 155 in October (Sect A p.18).

Average sales price for Sold New homes was $249,369 vs. $254,401 last month. (Sect A p.2)

Average sales price for Sold Used homes was $134,901 vs. $139,222 last month. (Sect A p.2)

The average price line for Used homes is going up. New home average prices seems to be showing positive direction as well.

TWB 12/14/13