Tag Archives: Real estate pricing

Birmingham Residential Real Estate Even with Last October

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for October 2015

In June the Birmingham MLS changed its base system. We have recoded the data to be consistent. Let me know if you see anything strange!

Dollar sales in October experienced a seasonal decline of 19% to $237,234,031 from September $292,441,366, off by 3% from last October’s of $245,404,227. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales has flattened. It seems to me that there has been a somewhat larger number of late reported sales which means that prior month totals are higher than what we showed last month by larger amounts than has historically been the case. It is important to view the overall trend and not get hung up on the precision of the latest month’s number.

Total Unit sales were down 3% to 1,240 in October from 1,515 in September, a decrease of 46. This is even  with last October at 1303. New sales were off at 104 homes this month and 179 in September and off from 143 last year. The price pressure and low inventory levels of new homes suggests a good environment for builders. Used sales were 1,136 homes in October, down 3% from 1,336 last month, a decrease of 45, and up by 70 units or .6% from 1,160 last year (Sect E p.3).

ACRE numbers are slightly different from those we report. With ACRE, we released our 2015 forecast which can be seen here: ACRE. For September, the latest available: September sales were 5% or 59 units above our forecast. ACRE’s year-to-date sales forecast through September projected 10,358 closed transactions while the actual sales were 10,471 units, a cumulative variance of 1%.

Total inventory is about even this month at 9,533 vs. last month at 9,970 and about even with 9,876 last year. Active New listings decreased to 940 in October from 1,056 in September (Sect E p.3).

Housing permits were off in Jefferson County to 83 in September from 90 in August, which is off from 95 last year. Shelby County went from 30 to 28 in September, off from 38 last year.

Absorption rate for New homes is at 6 months supply this month, which is about even with 7 months last year. (Sect E p.3). The New homes for the most part have normal inventory levels in the 1-7 month range depending on area and price range. However, the $800,000-$900,000 range has 20 months of supply (Sect C p.1).

Absorption for Used homes in October shows 7 months which is about even with 8 last year. Used Active listings at 8,593 are even with last month at 8,914 and about the same as 8,936 last year (Sect E p.3). Market performance is highly area specific, so check the individual area charts. For instance, Mountain Brook has between 1 and 9 months of inventory except in the over $900,000 category, which has 10 months of inventory (45 homes), with 3 sold in that price range last month . The average days on market for that category is 251. There are a number of MLS areas showing similarly low levels of inventory, including Homewood and Fultondale.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 189 compared with last month at 185. The Used homes DOM was 125 in October vs 120 last month, (Sect A p.18). Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $305,408 from $310,805 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales price for Sold Used homes increased to $180,873 from $177,251 last month (Sect A p2). The moving average price for all homes has been up steadily for the past year. (Sect A p2).
TWB 11/13/2015

Advertisements

Birmingham November Home Sales Up 1% over 2012

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for November 2013

Birmingham Nov Projection to Actual

Birmingham Nov Projection to Actual

Dollar sales in November declined by an expected seasonal 12% to $182,673,229 from October’s $206,744,372, up slightly  by 1% from last November’s $181,012,718. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to move up indicating continued improving market conditions. This is reasonable performance in the winter sales season. Early projections for next year are encouraging; sorry I can’t be more specific yet.

Unit sales were off 16% to 995 in November from 1,181 in October, a decrease of 186. This is off 6% from November 2012 at 1,059.This number will increase as late sales are reported. Our ABRE/ACRE Projections for 2013 projected 1,070 sales for November. For November, actual sales for the month were 7% worse than projections and 1% higher than year to date. Please see here for a summary of the projections http://goo.gl/nytW8 and the spreadsheet with details and month by month projections by area http://goo.gl/GEYWa (see the tabs on the bottom). New sales decreased by 27 units to 118 homes this month from 145 in October and are off by 12 from 130 last year. Used sales declined 15% to 877 homes in November from 1,036 last month, a decrease of 159, and up by 52 units from 929 last year(Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 8% lower than last month at 9,195 vs. 9,951 last year and 10,168 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. We are seeing a seasonal downtick in inventory and it is slightly lower than prior years, although New home inventories are beginning to look a bit high. Active New listings decreased to 804 in November from 1,072 in October, a decline of 268 units (Sect E p.3).  Housing permits were up in Jefferson County to 122 in October from 86 in September and up from 77 in the year ago period. Shelby County went from 16 to 28 in October. Note that the census dept has caught up to October from the shutdown.

Absorption rate for New homes is edging up. New homes are at 6 months supply this month which is one month better than 7 last year at this time. Last month though, shows 8 months of supply (Sect E p.3). The New homes for the most part have normal inventory levels in the 1-7 month range. The  $700,000- $800,000 new inventory is at 14 months (7 homes). (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in November shows 8 months,one month better than 9 months last year. Used Active listings at 8,385 are lower than the 9,083 last year (Sect E p.3). The number of homes listed in the over $600,000 price range has been climbing somewhat faster than sales, resulting in some upward drift in the months of sales (generally over a year). The market performance is highly area specific, so check the area charts. For instance, Mountain Brook has about three months of inventory except in the over $900,000 category which has 8 months of inventory (29 homes) with four sold in that price range last month . The average days on market for that category is 240 indicating a some older listings are moving.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 213 compared to last month at 170. The Used homes DOM was 135 in November, compared with 135 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in about 4  months.

Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $271,066 from $281,859 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales price for Sold Used homes increased to $171,822 from $160,111 last month (Sect A p2). The moving average price for Used Homes has been up steadily for the last year. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has also been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, New and Used, are improving  (Sect A p2).

TWB 12/14/13

Baldwin Sales 17% better than Last Year

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of November 2013

Sales dollars declined 17% in November to $85,937,943 from October’s $103,691,836. This is 17% above November last year at $73,463,221. (Sect A p.2). This is a strong showing for November and in the slower winter season. The 12 month moving average line of sales has continued to point up steadily for three years now. Inventories are slowly trending down.

On a unit basis, sales of all houses were down 15% at 367 this month vs. last month at 432, which is up 11% from last year’s 330. In spite of the substantially improved sales climate, it is important to point out that the inventories of homes over $400,000 while improving from really bad levels, remain at over a 12 month supply.

Used Home sales declined 17% to 305 this month vs. 368 last month, which is up 2% from last year’s 300 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 62 this month vs 64 last month compared with 30 last year.

Increasing year over year sales of New Homes is indicative of a recovering market.
New listings for New homes decreased to 84 from 97 in October. Used homes New listings decreased to 501 from 596 in October with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid­summer of ‘09, has once again been improving. In November, there were 3,446 Active Used homes, a reduction from 3,764 in October. The New home market, which peaked in November 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 413.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 8 months of inventory for November vs. 9 in October. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 9 months of inventory for November vs. 9 in October. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in November 2008 to 9 months this November. As I observe above though, the inventory of homes remains high.

Average sales price for all homes have been improving modestly for the past year. For New units, prices decreased to $297,708 from $405,259 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices increased to $221,246 from $211,292 in October. The price trend is up for the year.

Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in November was 172 this month vs. 117 last month. Days On Market for Used was 165 this month vs. 172 last month.

We see improvement in the second home market which is needed for the coastal area to gain strength. While there is still a lot of inventory particularly in the upper price ranges, sales are continuing to improve. The situation on the coast remains quite positive.

TWB 12/14/2013

Birmingham October Real Estate Sales Up 12% from last year

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for October 2013

Dollar sales in October declined by an expected seasonal 13% to $204,249,088 from September’s $235,332,290, up nicely  by 12% from last October’s $181,933,504. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to move up indicating continued improving market conditions. This is excellent performance in the fall sales season with no signs of weakness or slowdown.

Birmingham October Projection to Actual

Birmingham October Projection to Actual

Unit sales were off 6% to 1,157 in October from 1,231 in September, a decrease of 270. This is up 9% from October 2012 at 1,066.This number will increase as late sales are reported. Our ABRE/ACRE Projections for 2013 projected 1,095 sales for October. For October, actual sales for the month were 6% better than projections and 2% higher year to date. Please see here for a summary of the projections http://goo.gl/nytW8 and the spreadsheet with details and month by month projections by area http://goo.gl/GEYWa (see the tabs on the bottom). New sales decreased by 6 units to 142 homes this month from 148 in September and are up by 16 from 126 last year. Used sales declined 6% to 1,015 homes in October from 1,083 last month, a decrease of 68, and up by 75 units from 940 last year(Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 8% lower than last month at 9,455 vs. 10,384 last year and 10,237 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. While we are seeing a seasonal uptick in inventory it is still lower than prior years, although New home inventories are beginning to look a bit high. Active New listings decreased to 804 in October from 1,072 in September, a decline of 268 units (Sect E p.3).  Housing permits were down in Jefferson County to 69 in August from 101 in July. Shelby County went from 32 to 28 in August.

Absorption rate for New homes is edging up. New homes are at 6 months supply this month which is  three months better than 9 last year at this time. Last month though, shows 8 months of supply (Sect E p.3). The New homes for the most part have normal inventory levels in the 4-8 month range. The  $700,000- $800,000 new inventory is at 10 months (5 homes). (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in October shows 8 months, two months better than 10 months last year. Used Active listings at 8,651 are lower than the 9,486 last year (Sect E p.3). The number of homes listed in the over $600,000 price range has been climbing somewhat faster than sales, resulting in some upward drift in the months of sales (generally over a year). The market performance is highly area specific, so check the area charts. For instance, Mountain Brook has about four months of inventory except in the over $900,000 category which has 9 months of inventory (28 homes) with one sold in that price range last month . The average days on market for that category is 98 indicating an aggressive market for properly priced homes..

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 170 compared to last month at 200. The Used homes DOM was 135 in October, compared with 130 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in about 4  months.

Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $283,004 from $288,372 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales price for Sold Used homes decreased to $161,638 from $177,889 last month (Sect A p2). The moving average price for Used Homes has been up steadily for the last year. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has also been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, New and Used, are improving  (Sect A p2).

TWB 11/16/13

Baldwin County Real Estate Sales Remain Strong in October

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of October 2013

Sales dollars declined 15% in October to $94,693,836 from September’s $111,182,489. This is 16% above October last year at $81,980,796. (Sect A p.2). This is a strong showing for October, the slower fall season. The 12 month moving average line of sales has continued to point up steadily for three years now. Inventories are slowly trending down.

On a unit basis, sales of all houses were down 10% at 415 this month vs. last month at 459, which is up 16% from last year’s 359. In spite of the substantially improved sales climate, it is important to point out that the inventories of homes over $400,000 while improving from really bad levels, remain at over a 12 month supply.

Used Home sales declined 6% to 367 this month vs. 389 last month, which is up 13% from last year’s 326 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 48 this month vs 70 last month compared with 33 last year. Increasing year over year sales of New Homes is indicative of a recovering market.

New listings for New homes decreased to 82 from 94 in September. Used homes New listings decreased to 594 from 606 in September with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has once again been improving. In October, there were 3,430 Active Used homes, a reduction from 3,910 in September. The New home market, which peaked in October 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 416.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 9 months of inventory for October vs. 10 in September. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 9 months of inventory for October vs. 10 in September. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in October 2008 to 9 months this October. As I observe above though, the inventory of homes remains high.

Average sales price for all homes have been improving modestly for the past year. For New units, prices decreased to $357,428 from $357,864 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices decreased to $211,273 from $221,419 in September. The price trend is up for the year.

Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in October was 117 this month vs. 161 last month. Days On Market for Used was 172 this month vs. 165 last month.

We see improvement in the second home market, which is needed for the coastal area to gain strength. While there is still a lot of inventory particularly in the upper price ranges, sales are continuing to improve. The situation on the coast remains quite positive.

TWB 11/16/2013

September Birmingham Area Sales, Start Of A Strong Fall Season

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for September 2013

Birmingham September Projection to Acutal

Birmingham September Projection to Acutal

Dollar sales in September declined by an expected seasonal 16% to $230,124,972 from August’s $274,097,612, up nicely  by 24% from last September’s $186,242,556. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to move up indicating continued improving market conditions. This is good performance as the fall sales season begins.

Unit sales were off 2% to 1,200 in September from 1,470 in August, a decrease of 270. This is up 11% from September 2012 at 1,079.This number will increase as late sales are reported. Our ABRE/ACRE Projections for 2013 projected 1,251 sales for September. For September, actual sales for the month were 4% lower than projections and 0.8% higher year to date. Please see here for a summary of the projections http://goo.gl/nytW8 and the spreadsheet with details and month by month projections by area http://goo.gl/GEYWa (see the tabs on the bottom). New sales increased by 2 units to 143 homes this month from 141 in August and are up by 8 from 148 last year. Used sales declined 20% to 1,057 homes in September from 1,329 last month, a decrease of 271, and up by 111 units from 946 last year(Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 5% lower than last month at 9,694 vs. 10,215 last year and 10,520 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. While we are seeing a seasonal uptick in inventory it is still lower than prior years, although New home inventories are beginning to look a bit high. Active New listings decreased to 825 in September from 1,122 in August, a decline of 297 units (Sect E p.3).  Housing permits were not available due to the government shutdown (insert the political comment of your choice here).

Absorption rate for New homes is edging up. New homes are at 6 months supply this month which is  one month better than 7 last year at this time. Last month though, shows 9 months of supply (Sect E p.3). The New homes for the most part have normal inventory levels in the 4-8 month range. The $400,000- $500,000 is at 9 months (66 homes) and  $700,000- $800,000 new inventory is at 12 months (6 homes). (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in September shows 8 months, two months better than 10 months last year. Used Active listings at 8,759 are lower than the 9,832 last year (Sect E p.3). The number of homes listed in the over $600,000 price range has been climbing somewhat faster than sales, resulting in some upward drift in the months of sales (generally over a year). The market performance is highly area specific, so check the area charts. For instance, Mountain Brook has about four months of inventory except in the over $900,000 category which has 10 months of inventory(35 homes) . The average days on market for that category is 106 indicating an aggressive market for properly priced homes..

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 200 compared to last month at 238.This indicates that some of the older stock of new homes are selling. The Used homes DOM was 130 in September, compared with 126 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in about 4  months.

Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $289,138 from $293,052 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales price for Sold Used homes increased to $178,589 from $175,152 last month (Sect A p2). The moving average price for Used Homes has been up steadily for the last year. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has also been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, New and Used, are improving  (Sect A p2).

TWB 10/14/13

Alabama Coastal Real Estate Continues Strong Recovery

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of September 2013

Sales dollars declined 17% in September to $101,878,090 from August’s $122,637,528. This is 26% above September last year at $80,536,696. (Sect A p.2). This is a strong showing for September, early in the slower fall season. The 12 month moving average line of sales has continued to point up steadily for three years now. Inventories are slowly trending down.

On a unit basis, sales of all houses were down 18% at 439 this month vs. last month at 536, which is up 22% from last year’s 359. In spite of the substantially improved sales climate, it is important to point out that the inventories of homes over $400,000 while improving from really bad levels, remain at over a 12 month supply.

Used Home sales declined 19% to 385 this month vs. 475 last month, which is up 21% from last year’s 318 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 54 this month vs 61 last month compared with 41 last year. Increasing year over year sales of New Homes is indicative of a recovering market.

New listings for New homes increased to 73 from 71 in August. Used homes New listings decreased to 600 from 631 in August with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has once again been improving. In September, there were 3,516 Active Used homes, a reduction from 3,945 in August. The New home market, which peaked in September 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 383.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 9 months of inventory for September vs. 10 in August. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 9 months of inventory for September vs. 10 in August. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in September 2008 to 9 months this September. As I observe above though, the inventory of homes remains high.

Average sales price for all homes have been improving modestly for the past year. For New units, prices increased to $310,899 from $242,446 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices decreased to $221,012 from $227,049 in August. The price trend is up for the year.

Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in September was 161 this month vs. 180 last month. Days On Market for Used was 165 this month vs. 150 last month.

We see improvement in the second home market, which is needed for the coastal area to gain strength. While there is still a lot of inventory particularly in the upper price ranges, sales are continuing to improve. The situation on the coast has turned quite positive.

TWB 10/13/2013