Huntsville 1st Half Real Estate Sales Off 1% From Last Year

Huntsville/North Alabama Area MLS Observations: Real Estate Market June 2014

June sales improved by 5% to $162,481,363 vs. May at $154,481,617. This was off 2% from last year’s $165,588,332. This is a disappointing loss of upward momentum. The twelve month moving average line on the total dollar sales chart is roughly flat. Total unit sales were unchanged at 927 in June vs. 927 in May. This was down 4% from last year at 966. For the 1st 6 months unit sales were off 1% at 4,724 vs. last year of 4,773.

This year we are using the ACRE  data for forecasting which differs slightly from the data in this report. Our projections for the Huntsville market for 2014 are for an increase of 0.9% over the 2013 level, essentially flat with 2013. As of June, sales are down 1% from 2013.

New sales decreased at 123 this month vs. 129 last month, down 6 and compared with 168 last year.

Used sales increased to 804 this month vs. 798 last month, up 6, and compared with 798 last year (Sect E  p.3).

Inventory levels remain stubbornly high. Used inventory levels remain high this monthat12 months (see the chart Sect C p.1), with the situation continuing to be particularly challenged in the higher price ranges. Used homes over $500,000 have more than two years of inventory. New home absorption is 8 months of inventory overall, and has been climbing with 10 months last month. (E-1). The New Home inventory level in the $300,000-$500,000 is approximately 5-6 months (Not bad!).

May housing permits issued were 91 compared with 60 in April so it would appear that the builders are staying optimistic (chart on the web site).

Total Active listings decreased this month to 9,130 compared to last month’s 9,471, and lower than last year at this time at 9,509, with the reduction in the current month exaggerated due to month-end expirations. (Sect A p.4 and Sect E p.3).  Active New listings decreased to 1,182 this month from 1,392 in May, down 210. (Sect E p.3). Active Used listings decreased to 7,948 this month from 8,079 in May, off 131 and slightly below last year’s amount at this time of 8,076. (Sect E p.3).

Average Days on Market for Sold New homes was 179 vs. 236 days last month (indicates older inventory moving), with Used at 155 in June compared with 158 in May (Sect A p.18). Average sales price for Sold New homes was $250,038 vs. $240,334 last month. (Sect A p.2) Average sales price for Sold Used homes was $163,839 vs. $154,735 last month. (Sect A p.2)  The average prices seems to be have leveled out.

TWB 7/12/14

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Huntsville May Sales Somewhat Lower Than Last Year

Huntsville/North Alabama Area MLS Observations: Real Estate Market May 2014

May sales improved by 13% to $147,870,910 vs. April at $131,091,107. This was off 6% from last year’s $156,792,821. This is a disappointing loss of upward momentum. The twelve month moving average line on the total dollar sales chart is roughly flat. Total unit sales improved  4% to 882 in May vs. 851 in April, an increase of 31. This was down 6% from last year at 939.

This year we are using the ACRE  data for forecasting which differs slightly from the data in this report. Our projections for the Huntsville market for 2014 are for an increase of 0.9% over the 2013 level, essentially flat with 2013. As of April, sales are down 0.2% from 2013.

New sales decreased at 114 this month vs. 147 last month, down 33 and compared with 130 last year.

Used sales increased to 768 this month vs. 704 last month, up 64, and compared with 809 last year (Sect E  p.3).

Inventory levels remain stubbornly high. Used inventory levels remain high this monthat12 months (see the chart Sect C p.1), with the situation continuing to be particularly challenged in the higher price ranges. Used homes over $500,000 have more than two years of inventory. New home absorption is 8 months of inventory overall, and this has been climbing with 10 months last month. (E-1). The New Home inventory level in the $300,000-$500,000 is approximately 5-6 months (Not bad!).

April housing permits issued were 60 compared with 91 in March so it would appear that the builders are trimming their sails (chart on the web site).

Total Active listings decreased this month to 8,925 compared to last month’s 9,450, and lower than last year at this time at 9,329, with the reduction in the current month exaggerated due to month-end expirations. (Sect A p.4 and Sect E p.3).  Active New listings decreased to 1,160 this month from 1,425 in April, down 265. (Sect E p.3). Active Used listings increased to 7,765 this month from 8,025 in April, up 260 and slightly below last year’s amount at this time of 7,870. (Sect E p.3).

Average Days on Market for Sold New homes was 236 vs. 181 days last month (indicates older inventory moving), with Used at 158 in May compared with 165 in April (Sect A p.18). Average sales price for Sold New homes was $243,435 vs. $228,366 last month. (Sect A p.2) Average sales price for Sold Used homes was $156,405 vs. $138,525 last month. (Sect A p.2)  The average prices seems to be have leveled out.

TWB 6/8/14

Huntsville Real Estate Market Strengthens in April

Huntsville/North Alabama Area MLS Observations: Real Estate Market April 2014

April sales improved by 5% to $128,966,904 vs. March at $123,311,921. This was up 7% from last year’s $120,599,535. This is a better result than we saw last month hopefully pointing to more positive comparisons as the season progresses to the stronger months. The twelve month moving average line on the total dollar sales chart is roughly flat. Total unit sales improved  10% to 834 in April vs. 763 in March, an increase of 73. This was 6% better than last year at 799.

The way  ACRE and Brander Real Estate projections for 2014 are compiled has changed. This year we are using the ACRE data which differs slightly from the data in this report. I am now dependent on ACRE for the timing of data availability (for the projections only) and report release. Our projections for the Huntsville market for 2014 are for an increase of 0.9% over the 2013 level, essentially flat with 2013.

New sales remained at 143 this month vs. 143 last month, and compared with 130 last year.

Used sales increased to 691 this month vs. 620 last month, up 71, and compared with 669 last year (Sect E  p.3).

Inventory levels remain stubbornly high. Used inventory levels remain high this monthat11 months (see the chart Sect C p.1), with the situation continuing to be particularly challenged in the higher price ranges. Used homes over $500,000 have more than two years of inventory. New home absorption is 8 months of inventory overall, and this has been climbing with 10 months last month. (E-1). The New Home inventory level in the $300,000-$500,000 is approximately 5-6 months (Not bad!).

March housing permits issued were 91 compared with 60 in February (chart on the web site).

Total Active listings decreased this month to 8,864 compared to last month’s 9,027, and lower than last year at this time at 9,290, with the reduction in the current month exaggerated due to month-end expirations. (Sect A p.4 and Sect E p.3).  Active New listings decreased to 1,191 this month from 1,406 in March, down 215. (Sect E p.3). Active Used listings increased to 7,673 this month from 7,621 in March, up 52 and slightly below last year’s amount at this time of 7,796. (Sect E p.3).

Average Days on Market for Sold New homes was 181 vs. 179 days last month, with Used at 165 in April compared with 163 in March (Sect A p.18). Average sales price for Sold New homes was $229,274 vs. $240,802 last month. (Sect A p.2) Average sales price for Sold Used homes was $139,191 vs. $143,350 last month. (Sect A p.2) The average price line for Used homes is headed modestly down. The New home average price seems to be showing positive direction.

TWB 5/11/14

Huntsville Real Estate Off To A Slow Spring Start – March

Huntsville/North Alabama Area MLS Observations: Real Estate Market March 2014

March sales improved by 18% to $119,454,774 vs. February at $101,343,374. This was off 3% from last year’s $122,589,755. This is a lesser year to year decline than we saw last month hopefully pointing to more positive comparisons as the season progresses to the stronger months. The twelve month moving average line on the total dollar sales chart has turned slightly down. Total unit sales improved  11% to 740 in March vs. 667 in February, an increase of 73. This was 7% lower than last year at 797.

The way  ACRE and Brander Real Estate projections for 2014 are compiled has changed. This year we are using the ACRE data which differs slightly from the data in this report. I am now dependent on ACRE for the timing of data availability (for the projections only) and report release. Our projections for the Huntsville market for 2014 are for an increase of 0.9% over the 2013 level, essentially flat with 2013.

New sales increased to 130 this month vs. 117 last month, up 13 and compared with 145 last year.

Used sales increased to 610 this month vs. 550 last month, up 60, and compared with 652 last year (Sect E  p.3).

Inventory levels remain stubbornly high. Used inventory levels remain high this monthat11 months (see the chart Sect C p.1), with the situation continuing to be particularly challenged in the higher price ranges. Used homes over $500,000 have more than two years of inventory. New home absorption is 8 months of inventory overall, and this has been climbing, 10 months last month. (E-1). The New Home inventory level in the $300,000-$500,000 is approximately 5-6 months (Not bad!).

February housing permits issued were 66 compared with 40 in January (chart on the web site).

Total Active listings decreased this month to 8,444 compared to last month’s 8,572, and lower than last year at this time at 8,981, with the reduction in the current month exaggerated due to month-end expirations. (Sect A p.4 and Sect E p.3).  Active New listings decreased to 1,172 this month from 1,435 in February, down 263. (Sect E p.3). Active Used listings decreased to 7,272 this month from 7,317 in February, down 45 and slightly below last year’s amount at this time of 7,487. (Sect E p.3).

Average Days on Market for Sold New homes was 179 vs. 206 days last month, with Used at 163 in March compared with 175 in February (Sect A p.18). Average sales price for Sold New homes was $245,360 vs. $237,398 last month. (Sect A p.2) Average sales price for Sold Used homes was $143,540 vs. $133,760 last month. (Sect A p.2) The average price line for Used homes is headed modestly down. The New home average price seems to be showing positive direction.

TWB 4/12/14

North Alabama/Huntsville Real Estate Market Off to a Slow Start in February

Huntsville/North Alabama Area MLS Observations: Real Estate Market February 2014

February sales improved by 13% to $94,049,657 vs. January at $83,222,776. This was off 15%
from last year’s $110,841,443. This is a bigger year to year decline than we saw last month.
The twelve month moving average line on the total dollar sales chart has turned slightly down. This month’s results were again somewhat lower than expectations. Hopefully, sales will improve with the upcoming spring season.

Total unit sales improved 9% to 621 in February vs. 568 in January, a increase of 53. This was 11% lower than last year at 698. I expect that sales should return to more normal levels as the weather improves.

I have changed the way ACRE and Brander Real Estate projections for 2014 are compiled. This year we are using the ACRE data which differs slightly from the data in this report. I am now dependent on ACRE for the timing of data availability (for the projections only) and report release. Our projections for the Huntsville market for 2014 are for an increase of 0.9% over the 2013 level, essentially flat with 2013.

New sales increased to 90 this month vs. 83 last month, up 7 and compared with 150 last year. Used sales increased to 531 this month vs. 485 last month, up 46, and compared with 548 last year (Sect E p.3). Inventory levels remain stubbornly high.

Used inventory levels remain high this month at 10 months (see the chart Sect C p.1), with the situation continuing to be particularly challenged in the higher price ranges. Used homes over $500,000 have more than two years of inventory. New home absorption is 9 months of inventory overall, and this has been climbing (E­1). The New Home inventory level in the $300,000­-$500,000 is approximately 5­-6 months (Not bad!).

January housing permits issued were 66 compared with 40 in December (chart on the web site).

Total Active listings decreased this month to 8,251 compared to last month’s 8,667, and about even with last year at this time at 8,586, with the reduction in the current month exaggerated due to month­ end expirations. (Sect A p.4 and Sect E p.3). Active New listings decreased to 1,228 this month from 1,510 in January, down 282. (Sect E p.3). Active Used listings decreased to 7,023 this month from 7,157 in January, down 134 and slightly below last year’s amount at this time of 7,185. (Sect E p.3).

Average Days on Market for Sold New homes was 206 vs. 174 days last month, with Used at 175 in February compared with 150 in January (Sect A p.18). Average sales price for Sold New homes was $249,100 vs. $235,258 last month. (Sect A p.2) Average sales price for Sold Used homes was $134,898 vs. $131,333 last month. (Sect A p.2) The average price line for Used homes is headed modestly down. The New home average price seems to be showing positive direction.

TWB 3/9/14

January North Alabama Sales Off To A Slow Start

Huntsville/North Alabama Area MLS Observations: Real Estate Market January 2014

January sales declined by 34% to $79,903,130 vs. December at $121,842,236. This was off 9% from last year’s $88,136,964. The twelve month moving average line on the total dollar sales chart has turned flat and slightly down. This month’s results were somewhat lower than expectations. Total unit sales declined 4% to 545 in January vs. 703 in December, a decrease of 158. This was lower than last year at 571. I expect that sales should return to more normal levels as the year progresses.

New sales decreased to 75 this month vs. 143 last month, off 68.

Used sales decreased to 469 this month vs. 556 last month, off 87 (Sect E  p.3).

Inventory levels remain stubbornly high. Used inventory levels remain high this month at 10 months (see the chart Sect C p.1), with the situation continuing to be particularly challenged in the higher price ranges. Used homes over $500,000 have more than two years of inventory. New home absorption is 9 months of inventory overall, and this has been climbing)(E-1). The New Home inventory level in the $300,000-$500,000 is approximately 5-6 months. (Not bad!).

December housing permits issued were 40 compared with 48 in November (chart on the web site). This is the lowest level of starts since January 2009 (44).

Total Active listings decreased this month to 8,131 compared to last month’s 8,712, and about even with last year at this time at 8,280, with the reduction in the current month exaggerated due to month-end expirations. (Sect A p.4 and Sect E p.3).  Active New listings decreased to 1,286 this month from 1,509 in December, down 223. (Sect E p.3). Active Used listings decreased to 6,845 this month from 7,203 in December, down 358 and slightly below last year’s amount at this time of 6,891. (Sect E p.3).

Average Days on Market for Sold New homes was 174 vs. 159 days last month, with Used at 150 in January compared with 157 in December (Sect A p.18). Average sales price for Sold New homes was $235,167 vs. $254,331 last month. (Sect A p.2) Average sales price for Sold Used homes was $132,480 vs. $152,448 last month. (Sect A p.2) The average price line for Used homes is headed modestly down. New home average prices seems to be showing positive direction.

TWB 2/9/14

Huntsville, North Alabama December Real Estate Up 7% From November

Huntsville/North Alabama Area MLS Observations: Real Estate Market December 2013

December sales improved by 7% to $116,699,993 vs. November at $109,284,134. This was off 1% from last year’s $118,295,733. The twelve month moving average line on the total dollar sales chart has turned flat and slightly down. This month’s results were somewhat lower than expectations ( but, within 4%). Total unit sales declined 4% to 677 in December vs. 704 in November, a decrease of 27. This was about even with last year at 673.

	Total $	%chg	Total Units	%chg	New Units	%chg	Used units	%chg
2012	1,499,410,113		9,196		1,738		7,458
2013	1,596,928,627	7%	9,722	6%	1,729	-1%	7,993	7%

Projections from  ACRE and Brander Real Estate for 2013 called for 708 sales in December with actual results 4% under that, and year to date volume at 1% lower than projection. Click here http://goo.gl/nytW8 for an article summarizing our projections. Here is the spreadsheet with month by month projections by area:  http://goo.gl/GEYWa (see the tabs on the bottom). When late sales are reported next month we will probably end up within ½% or so. My preliminary work on next year’s projections is, as yet, indeterminate.

Huntsville Projection to Actual

New sales increased to 133 this month vs. 122 last month, off 11.

Used sales decreased to 544 this month vs. 582 last month, off 38 (Sect E  p.3).

Inventory levels remain stubbornly high. Used inventory levels remain high this month at 10 months (see the chart Sect C p.1), with the situation continuing to be particularly challenged in the higher price ranges. Used homes over $400,000 have more than two years of inventory. Looking at the overall absorption chart (Sect C p1) it appears that used home inventories (in units) are approaching historical highs. New home absorption is 9 months of inventory overall, and this has been climbing)(E-1). The New Home inventory level in the $300,000-$500,000 is approximately 5-6 months. (Not bad!). August housing permits issued were 48 in November compared with 85 in October (chart on the web site). This is the lowest level of starts in some time.

Total Active listings decreased this month to 8,266 compared to last month’s 9,111, and about even with last year at this time at 8,263, with the reduction in the current month exaggerated due to month-end expirations. (Sect A p.4 and Sect E p.3).  Active New listings decreased to 1,348 this month from 1,535 in November, down 187. (Sect E p.3). Active Used listings decreased to 6,918 this month from 7,576 in November, down 658 and slightly above last year’s amount at this time of 6,887. (Sect E p.3).

Average Days on Market for Sold New homes was 159 vs. 157 days last month, with Used at 157 in December compared with 151 in November (Sect A p.18). Average sales price for Sold New homes was $253,017 vs. $250,445 last month. (Sect A p.2) Average sales price for Sold Used homes was $152,663 vs. $135,275 last month. (Sect A p.2) The average price line for Used homes is going up. New home average prices seems to be showing positive direction as well.

TWB 1/11/14

Huntsville October Real Estate Sales Slower in October

Huntsville/North Alabama Area MLS Observations: Real Estate Market October 2013

October sales declined by 11% to $126,349,004 vs. September at $142,710,174. This was off 2% from last year’s $128,656,905. The twelve month moving average line on the total dollar sales chart is heading up. This month’s results were in-line with expectations (within 3%).

Huntsville Oct Projection to Actual

Total unit sales declined 5% to 787 in October vs. 831 in September, a decrease of 145. This was 1% lower than last year at 794.

Our projections for ACRE and Brander Real Estate for 2013 called for 812 sales in October with actual results 3% under that, and year to date volume is 1% lower than our projection. See here http://goo.gl/nytW8 for an article sumarizing the projections. Here is the spreadsheet with month by month projections by area http://goo.gl/GEYWa (see the tabs on the bottom).

New sales increased to 143 this month vs. 142 last month, up 1.

Used sales decreased to 644 this month vs. 689 last month, off 45 (Sect E  p.3).

In-spite of increased sales, inventory levels remain stubbornly high. Used inventory levels remain high this month at 11 months (see the chart Sect C p.1), with the situation continuing to be particularly challenged in the higher price ranges. Used homes over $400,000 have more than two years of inventory. Looking at the overall absorption chart (Sect C p1) it appears that used home inventories (in units) are approaching the historical highs, although the months of inventory is not quite as concerning due to the increased sales level.

New home absorption is 9 months of inventory overall, and this has been climbing)(E-1). The New Home inventory level in the $300,000-$500,000 is approximately 5-6 months. (Not bad!).

August housing permits issued were 109 compared with 113 in July (chart on the web site).

Total Active listings decreased this month to 8,799 compared to last month’s 9,457, and above last year at this time at 8,788, with the reduction in the current month exaggerated due to month-end expirations. (Sect A p.4 and Sect E p.3).

Active New listings decreased to 1,326 this month from 1,526 in September, down 200. (Sect E p.3). Active Used listings decreased to 7,473 this month from 7,931 in September, down 458 and slightly above last year’s amount at this time of 7,464. (Sect E p.3).

Average Days on Market for Sold New homes was 155 vs. 141 days last month, with Used at 155 in October compared with 156 in September (Sect A p.18).

Average sales price for Sold New homes was $254,401 vs. $246,916 last month. (Sect A p.2)

Average sales price for Sold Used homes was $139,704 vs. $156,238 last month. (Sect A p.2)

The average price line for Used homes is going up. New home average prices seems to be showing positive direction as well.

TWB 11/16/13

Huntsville Area Real Estate September Results In-Line With Expectations

Huntsville/North Alabama Area MLS Observations: Real Estate Market September 2013

September sales declined by 12% to $139,568,716 vs. August at $159,339,428. This was up 16% from last year’s $120,579,612. The twelve month moving average line on the total dollar sales chart is heading up. This months’ results were in-line with expectations (within 3%).

Total unit sales declined 15% to 816 in September vs. 961 in August, a decrease of 145. This was 10% higher than last year at 740. (it is worth noting that we again had a larger number of past month’s reported sales than usual, resulting in changes in historical adjustments).

Our projections for ACRE and Brander Real Estate for 2013 called for 938 sales in September with actual results 3% under that, and year to date volume is 0.8% lower than our projection. See here http://goo.gl/nytW8 for an article sumarizing the projections. Here is the spreadsheet with month by month projections by area http://goo.gl/GEYWa (see the tabs on the bottom).

New sales decreased to 135 this month vs. 165 last month, down 30.

Used sales decreased to 681 this month vs. 796 last month, off 115 (Sect E  p.3).

In-spite of increased sales, inventory levels remain stubbornly high. Used inventory levels remain high this month at 11 months (see the chart Sect C p.1), with the situation continuing to be particularly challenged in the higher price ranges. Used homes over $400,000 have more than two years of inventory. Looking at the overall absorption chart (Sect C p1) it appears that used home inventories (in units) are approaching the historical highs, although the months of inventory is not quite as concerning due to the increased sales level.

New home absorption is 9 months of inventory overall, and this has been climbing)(E-1). The New Home inventory level in the $300,000-$500,000 is approximately 5-6 months. (Not bad!).

Due to the Government shutdown we cannot report on number of housing permits issued (chart on the web site).

Total Active listings decreased this month to 8,838 compared to last month’s 9,424, and below last year at this time at 8,935, with the reduction exaggerated due to month-end expirations. (Sect A p.4 and Sect E p.3).

Active New listings decreased from 1,410 last month to 1,284 in September, down 126. (Sect E p.3). Active Used listings decreased from 8,014 last month to 7,554 this month, down 46 and slightly below last year’s amount at this time of 7,647. (Sect E p.3).

Average Days on Market for Sold New homes was 141 vs. 144 days last month, with Used at 156 in September compared with 144 in August (Sect A p.18).

Average sales price for Sold New homes was $246,938 vs. $246,904 last month. (Sect A p.2)

Average sales price for Sold Used homes was $155,994 vs. $148,995 last month. (Sect A p.2)

The average price line for Used homes is going up. New home average prices seems to be showing positive direction as well.

TWB 10/13/13

 

4th Quarter Alabama Residential Real Estate Outlook Continues Positive

This survey projects expectations for the 4^th quarter of 2013. The scale ranges from 0-100 with 0 being much worse, 100 being much better, and 50 indicating no change expected.

The professional real estate community remained optimistic this quarter. All of the overall indicators are at the highest 4^th quarter levels we have seen since beginning of the survey in 2010 except for the inventory indicator, which is 2 points lower than last year’s 4^th Q. All of the indicators, while off from last quarter, remain at or above 50 indicating expansion expected, except for credit. The availability of credit continues to be viewed somewhat negatively, at 47, two points off last quarter.

The national score at 51, while down 7 points from last quarter, still indicates respondents are expecting modest improvement in the overall economic picture. The participants are more positive on the statewide conditions at 54, off 9 points from last quarter. Inventory expectations moderated to 50, down 3 points, indicating a balanced market. Sellers are seeing improved pricing with a score of 52, down 5 points from last quarter. Financing continues to be viewed negatively at 47, indicating that buyers may face tight financing conditions.

Regional Results:

The coastal region continued to remain the most optimistic in the state at 58 (Alabama Stat). On an overall basis all areas sales expectations remained above 50. Huntsville, North Alabama was the lowest at 51.

This quarter showed stability in all regions.  Historically, we usually see a marked decline in 4th Q expectations. This is encouraging, and overall measures remain in the expansion zone.

Commercial market participants, (the majority of the respondents are from the Birmingham market area), remained positive this quarter (Total Stat) at 54 this quarter a two point decline and declining 3 points to 54 for sales expectations. Price expectations dropped 1 point to 53 indicating improving pricing conditions. The score for credit availability is looking stable at 53.

North Region

All areas including North Alabama declined 6 points to 47, 2 points lower than last year’s 4^th quarter. The total score is 47. The sales outlook slipped to 48, but with pricing also slipping to 48.

North Central Region

The North Central Region overall score remained positive at 53. The sales score declined to 54, off by 7 points. Inventory score declined to 51, down 4 points, with pricing declining to 55 from 58, and credit at 49.

South Central Region

The South Central Region overall score declined to 49 from 56 last quarter. The outlook for sales declined to 51 from 61.

South Region

The Southern Region overall score was the highest at 54. This sales score is the highest of the regions at 58, off 9 from last quarter.  Price expectations declined by 5 to 56.

About the Alabama Real Estate Confidence Index and Survey:

More than 425 professionals responded to the 4th quarter 2013 survey which was conducted during the month of September 2013. The survey, conducted by the Alabama Center For Real Estate now has the largest participation of any real estate survey. It provides important market insights. Full history and scores for each market segment are located here on the web http://goo.gl/a5V8sd

The ACRE Leadership Council  determined the need for a statewide industry confidence index and this was adopted as the Council’s first initiative. Tom Brander, Council Member, was selected by the Council and Grayson Glaze, ACRE Executive Director, to spearhead and work with the Center to conduct and produce its Alabama Real Estate Confidence Index (ARECI). The Council appreciates everyone who participated.

For further information contact Tom Brander at Tombrander@tombrander.com or Grayson Glaze at gglaze@cba.ua.edu