Tag Archives: Moving average

Huntsville November Residental Sales Slower Than Last Year

Huntsville/North Alabama Area MLS Observations: Real Estate Market November 2013

Huntsville Nov Projection to Actual

Huntsville Nov Projection to Actual

November sales declined by 16% to $106,952,847 vs. October at $127,291,004. This was off 12% from last year’s $121,727,839. The twelve month moving average line on the total dollar sales chart is heading up. This month’s results were somewhat lower than expectations ( but, within 6%).

Total unit sales declined 13% to 691 in November vs. 796 in October, a decrease of 105. This was 4% lower than last year at 722.

Our projections for ACRE and Brander Real Estate for 2013 called for 734 sales in November with actual results 6% under that, and year to date volume is 1% lower than our projection. See here http://goo.gl/nytW8 for an article sumarizing the projections. Here is the spreadsheet with month by month projections by area http://goo.gl/GEYWa (see the tabs on the bottom). My preliminary work on next year’s projections is, as yet, indeterminate.

New sales increased to 120 this month vs. 143 last month, off 23.

Used sales decreased to 571 this month vs. 653 last month, off 82 (Sect E  p.3).

Inventory levels remain stubbornly high. Used inventory levels remain high this month at 11 months (see the chart Sect C p.1), with the situation continuing to be particularly challenged in the higher price ranges. Used homes over $400,000 have more than two years of inventory. Looking at the overall absorption chart (Sect C p1) it appears that used home inventories (in units) are approaching historical highs.

New home absorption is 9 months of inventory overall, and this has been climbing)(E-1). The New Home inventory level in the $300,000-$500,000 is approximately 5-6 months. (Not bad!).

August housing permits issued were 85 in October compared with 91 in September (chart on the web site). Note that the census dept has caught up from the shutdown.

Total Active listings decreased this month to 9,185 compared to last month’s 9,371, and above last year at this time at 8,437, with the reduction in the current month exaggerated due to month-end expirations. (Sect A p.4 and Sect E p.3).

Active New listings decreased to 1,359 this month from 1,543 in October, down 184. (Sect E p.3). Active Used listings decreased to 7,286 this month from 7,828 in October, down 542 and slightly above last year’s amount at this time of 7,167. (Sect E p.3).

Average Days on Market for Sold New homes was 157 vs. 155 days last month, with Used at 151 in November compared with 155 in October (Sect A p.18).

Average sales price for Sold New homes was $249,369 vs. $254,401 last month. (Sect A p.2)

Average sales price for Sold Used homes was $134,901 vs. $139,222 last month. (Sect A p.2)

The average price line for Used homes is going up. New home average prices seems to be showing positive direction as well.

TWB 12/14/13

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July Alabama Coastal Sales UP 20% Year on Year

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of July 2013

Sales dollars improved 8% in July to $124,260,240 from June’s $114,883,928. This is 20% above July last year at $103,293,794. (Sect A p.2). A increase in July sales is somewhat unusual and may be a encouraging sign of a continuing improving market. The 12 month moving average line of sales has continued to point up steadily for three years now. Inventories are steadily trending down.

On a unit basis, sales of all houses were up 1% at 495 this month vs. last month at 489, which is up 29% from last year’s 383. In spite of the substantially improved sales climate, it is important to point out that the inventories of homes over $300,000 while improving from really bad levels, remain at over a 12 month supply.

Used Home sales improved 5% to 451 this month vs. 428 last month, which is up 18% from last year’s 383 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 44 this month vs 61 last month compared with 29 last year. Increasing sales of New Homes is indicative of a recovering market.

New listings for New homes decreased to 74 from 97 in June. Used homes New listings increased to 784 from 776 in June with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has once again been improving. In July, there were 3,597 Active Used homes, a reduction from 3,910 in June. The New home market, which peaked in July 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 363.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 9 months of inventory for July vs. 10 in June. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 10 months of inventory for July vs. 11 in June. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in July 2008 to 10 months this July. As I observe above though, the inventory for homes remains high.

Average sales price for all homes have been improving modestly for the past year. For New units, prices decreased to $218,380 from $258,086 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices increased to $254,216 from $231,637 in June. The price trend is up for the year.

Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in July was 186 this month vs. 90 last month. Days On Market for Used was 154 this month vs. 193 last month.

We see improvement in the second home market, which is needed for the coastal area to gain strength. While there is still a lot of inventory particularly in the upper price ranges, sales are continuing to improve. I think the situation on the coast has turned quite positive.

TWB 8/11/2013

Birmingham April Real Estate Sales Continue An Improving Trend

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for April 2012

Sales in April improved 10% to $189,845,478 from March’s $172,627,863, up 20% from last April’s $158,607,279. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales has tilted upward nicely.

Unit sales were up 5% to 1,175 in April from 1,123 in March, an increase of 52. This is up 15% from April 2011 at 1,026. This is 7% unfavorable to our projection of 1,264 sales expected for April and 9% unfavorable year to date. The complete monthly projections from ABRE (a joint project between ACRE and Brander Real Estate) can be found here http://goo.gl/WFHrO along with the worksheets that show the methodology. It appears that the results are closing in on projections as the spring unfolds. New sales declined 4% to 108 homes this month from 113 in March, a decrease of 5 units. Used sales improved 6% to 1,067 homes in April from 1,010 last month, an increase of 57 (Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is dramatically lower at 10,177 vs. 12,884 last year and 10,627 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. Still, there is less of a seasonal increase in listings than last year. Active New listings decreased to 774 in April from 1,108 in March, a decline of 334 units (Sect E p.3). Housing permits went up for Jefferson county to 120 for March up from 95 for February. (see website for details).

Absorption rate for New and Used homes is improving. New homes are at 6 months supply this month with a reduced sales pace, and better than last year at this time at 9 months (Sect E p.3). New home supply seems to be in a “normal” state. Under $100,000 New homes are at 14 months supply and improving. The New homes in the $100,000-$400,000 price range have an almost normal inventory level in the 6-7 month range. (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in April shows 10 months, four months better than 14 months last year. Used Active listings at 9,403 are lower than the 11,761 last year (Sect E p.3), (Sect E p.3).

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses was 233 compared to last month at 194 . The Used homes DOM was 136 in April, compared with 146 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used Homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months. The high months of inventory indicates that sellers, including bank owners, are still holding out for higher prices. Again: If the home is not selling, reduce the price, particularly since we are in the most active sales season of the year.

Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $228,311 from $237,235 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes increased to $154,525 from $144,377 last month (Sect A p2). The twelve month moving average price line for Used Homes has been quite steady since mid 2009. Average Home prices, new and used, have stabilized  (Sect A p2). The price of any specific home still remains under pressure.

TWB 5/10/12

Birmingham January Real Estate Sales Better Than Last Year

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for January 2012

Sales in January declined 23% to $111,138,976 from December’s $144,973,823, up 7.6% from last January’s $103,296,527. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales remains tilted slightly upward.

Unit sales were down 22% to 753 in January from 963 in December, a decrease of 210. This is a 10% improvement from January 2010 at 684. This is 5% unfavorable to our preliminary projection of 792 sales expected for January. This error will be less as late sales are reported next month. Our full year projections will be revised when the final January 2012 unemployment rate is released in late March. New sales declined 37% to 82 homes this month from 130 in December, a decrease of 48 units. Used sales declined 19% to 671 homes in January from 833 last month, a decrease of 162 (Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is dramatically lower at 9,812 vs. 12,183 last year and 10,414 last month. The significant drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. Active New listings decreased to 829 in January from 1,073 in December, a decline of 244 units (Sect E p.3).Housingpermits showed a decrease in Jefferson County to 64 in December from 77 in November. Shelby County was down to 6 from 19 (see website for details).

Absorption rate for New and Used homes is improving. New homes are at 7 months supply this month with a reduced sales pace, and even with last year at this time (Sect E p.3). New home supply seems to be stable. Under $100,000 New homes are at 16 months supply. The New homes in the $100,000-$500,000 price range have an almost normal inventory level in the 6-8 month range. (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in January shows 10 months, three months better than 12 months last year. Used Active listings at 8,983 are lower than the 11,038 last year (Sect E p.3), (Sect E p.3).

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses was 215 compared to last month at 209 . The Used homes DOM was 143 in January, compared with 141 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used Homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months. The high months of inventory indicates that sellers, including bank owners, are still holding out for higher prices. Again: If the home is not selling, reduce the price, particularly since we are in the slower sales season of the year.

Average sales price for Sold New homes increased to $243,501 from $237,784 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes decreased to $135,875 from $136,929 last month (Sect A p2). The twelve month moving average price line for Used Homes has been quite steady since mid 2009. Average Home prices, new and used, have stabilized  (Sect A p2). This is for the most part a reflection of the change of “mix” with more larger homes being sold, but the price of any specific home still remains under pressure.

TWB 2/11/12