Tag Archives: House

Birmingham January Real Estate Sales Robust

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for January 2017

January saw a continuation of the pick up in dollar sales over last year, while unit sales also increased from last years’ level. Prices seem to be modestly increasing. Total dollar sales for January were $206,912,455 up 13% from $183,327,923 last year, and down 24% from last month at $272,571,925.

Total Unit sales were off 22% at 1,020 in January from 1,312 in December, a decrease of 292. This is up by 3% and 22 from last January at 987. New sales were off to 120 homes this month, and 210 in December, and up by 16 from 104 last year. The low inventory level of new homes suggests a good environment for builders, and prices have begun to show a more solid uptrend. Used sales were 900 homes in January, off 18% from 1,102 last month, a decrease of 202, up by 17 units  from 883 last year (Sect E p.3).

ACRE numbers are slightly different from those we report. With ACRE, we released our month by month 2016 forecast which can be seen here: ACRE. For Birmingham, the full year projection for 2016 = 13,460, a 1.25% difference from 2015 actual of 13,294. The cumulative error is plus 9% for the year; that is actuals are ahead of projections of 14,705 through year end, an increase of 11% over 2015. The forecast for 2017 should be out shortly.

Housing permits are no longer available in the same format from the Census bureau. I may be able to resume reporting once I can find a new method of sourcing the data, but at this point I do not know if that will be possible.

Total inventory is slightly lower this month at 7,838 vs. last month at 7,968 and less than 9,123 last year. (Sect C p.1). Active New listings decreased to 968 in January from 1,100 in December (Sect E p.3). Absorption rate for New homes is at 6 months supply this month, which is less than 7 months last year. (Sect E p.3). The New homes have normal inventory levels in the 4-8 month range depending on area and price range. (Sect C p.1). The level of inventory, both in months of inventory and housing units, has been continuing to improve for the year.

Absorption for Used homes in January shows 5 months, which is less than the 6 last year. Used Active listings at 6,870 are down from last month of 6.868, and quite a bit less than 8,053 last year (Sect E p.3). Inventory levels have continued to trend down from prior years. Market performance is highly area specific, so check the individual area charts. For instance, Mountain Brook has between 1 and 4 months of inventory, 3 months overall, except in the over $900,000 category, which has 6 months of inventory (35 homes), with 5 sold in that price range last month. There are a number of MLS areas, particularly those known as the “over the mountain” communities, showing similarly low levels, including Homewood, which has 3 months of inventory.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 180 compared with last month at 271. The Used homes DOM was 126 in January vs 119 last month, (Sect A p.18). Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $309,844 from $312,947 last month (Sect A p2). Over a several month period prices seem to be increasing. Average sales price for Sold Used was $188,590 this month compared to $187,707 last month. (Sect A p2).

All in all, the market continues to look quite healthy.

TWB 2/13/2017  


Birmingham Area Home Sales Slow in October

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for October 2010

Taken from the Innovation Depot's rooftop terr...

Image via Wikipedia

Sales in October dropped 25% to $120,783,955 from September’s $160,333,587. This is a decline of 32% from last October’s $178,100,683. An increasing percentage of sales are being reported after the 10th of the month when we get the data, so the comparisons to prior periods seem somewhat overstated; that is, next month we are likely to see more sales reported for the October time frame ,making the comparisons seem somewhat better. The housing situation is still pretty distressing with the twelve month moving average of total dollar sales chart continuing to show a downward slope.

Total unit sales were down 25% at 714 in October from 953 in September, a decrease of 239. This is a 39% reduction from October 2009 at 1,177 (for those who follow, this is almost identical to the % drop reported by the MLS). New sales declined 30% to 111 homes this month from 159 in September, a decrease of 48 units. Used sales deteriorated 24% to 603 homes in October from 794 last month, a decrease of 191 (Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is virtually the same as last year at 12,764 vs. 12,808. Active New listings decreased to 1,152 in October from 1,327 in September, a decline of 175 units (Sect E p.3). The number of housing permits this month has decreased to 23 in September vs. 44 in the prior month for Jefferson County. Shelby County showed a slight increase. (See the website for details).

Absorption rate for New homes at a  6.8 months supply and a reduced sales pace, is better than the 8.9 months last year at this time (Sect E p.3). While the situation is still  distressed, New homes seem to be selling and supply is keeping in balance. Strangely, under $100,000 New homes are at 17.7 months of sales, while those priced from $100,000-$500,000 range from 5.4 to 6.6 months of inventory, a pretty “normal” situation in such abnormal times.. (Sect C p.1 compare to last month and Sect E p.3.) New house inventories in higher price ranges (above $500,000) remain excessive at over a year. This situation has been grim for some time.

Inventory shows a modest decline for Used homes. Absorption for Used homes in October 2010 shows 11,612 Used Active listings (Sect E p.3) and 13.2 months of supply. This is slightly worse than the 12.4 months of supply last year at this time (Sect E p.3). Since May the number of Used Active listings has dropped by more that 1,000! Unfortunately, the drop has been due more to cancellations than sales, but it is still somewhat positive news. The higher price ranges are doing poorly, but hopefully showing some signs of stability as New listings moderate. The market for houses requiring “Jumbo” loans remains stagnant.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses was 237 compared to last month at 182. The Used homes DOM was 137 in October, compared with 134 last month (Sect A p.18).
Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $223,528 from $229.998 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes increased to $159,158 from $155,874 last month (Sect A p2).

The twelve month moving average price line for both New and Used homes is heading up! This reflects a normalizing mix of home prices, with the elimination of the distortion due to sales of the lower-end being inflated by the tax incentives.  (Sect A p2).

TWB 11/13/10