Tag Archives: Baldwin County Alabama

October Another Record Month For Coastal Real Estate Sales

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of October 2016

Sales dollars decreased 6% in October to $133,246,557 from September $141,904,008. This is up 11% from October last year’s record level of $120,334,190. (Sect A p.2). The 12 month moving average line of sales, after a pause during the summer months, appears to have resumed its upward trend. Lack of new construction now seems to be depressing sales somewhat. Inventories are continuing to trend down very consistently.

Sales in most price categories show consistent improvement as do inventories. Check out the chart on page A-17 to fully appreciate the inventory trends. Still, inventory remains high, but improving, at over a year for anything over $600,000. Note that the point at which inventories are over a year has been going up constantly for the last year; last month it was $500,000.

In concert with ACRE, The Alabama Center for Real Estate, we have projected expectations for 2016. We use the ACRE provided data for the projections, which differs slightly from the data in this report. The projection for 2016 located here expects projected home sales in 2016 of 5,139, which is a -1.74% difference from 2015 actual of  5,230. Year to date through October actual sales are 7% above expectations. 317 more units were sold through October than the 4,386 projected.

On a unit basis, sales of all houses were off 67 at 504 this month vs. last month at 571, which is up from last year’s healthy level of 482. Used Home sales decreased to 411 this month vs. 473 last month, which is up from last year’s 415 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 92 this month vs 98 last month and compared with 67 last year. New listings for New homes increased to 201 from 121 in September. Used homes New listings decreased to 598 from 604 in September with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has been consistently improving. In October, there were 3,035 Active Used homes, a reduction from 3,573 in September and a new multi year low. New homes, which peaked in October 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sit at 633.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 7 months of inventory in October vs. 8 in September. The Absorption rate for Used homes was also 7 months of inventory in October vs. 8 in September. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in September 2008 to 7 months this October. The inventory of homes in the upper price range remains high with homes priced $600,000 and over at a year’s supply, but even here we are seeing improvement. I have been expecting construction to begin to pick-up in the under $400,000 range, and this has happened. Sales have been keeping up, so we have not seen an increase in inventory.

Average sales price for all homes has been static for the past year. For New units, average price increased to  $244,530 from $235,786 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices increased to $268,099 from $251,156 in September. Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in October was 188 vs last month of 159. Days On Market for Used was 153 vs. last month 158.

It seems to be shaping up to be a strong fall season.

TWB 11/12/2016

Baldwin Sales 17% better than Last Year

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of November 2013

Sales dollars declined 17% in November to $85,937,943 from October’s $103,691,836. This is 17% above November last year at $73,463,221. (Sect A p.2). This is a strong showing for November and in the slower winter season. The 12 month moving average line of sales has continued to point up steadily for three years now. Inventories are slowly trending down.

On a unit basis, sales of all houses were down 15% at 367 this month vs. last month at 432, which is up 11% from last year’s 330. In spite of the substantially improved sales climate, it is important to point out that the inventories of homes over $400,000 while improving from really bad levels, remain at over a 12 month supply.

Used Home sales declined 17% to 305 this month vs. 368 last month, which is up 2% from last year’s 300 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 62 this month vs 64 last month compared with 30 last year.

Increasing year over year sales of New Homes is indicative of a recovering market.
New listings for New homes decreased to 84 from 97 in October. Used homes New listings decreased to 501 from 596 in October with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid­summer of ‘09, has once again been improving. In November, there were 3,446 Active Used homes, a reduction from 3,764 in October. The New home market, which peaked in November 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 413.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 8 months of inventory for November vs. 9 in October. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 9 months of inventory for November vs. 9 in October. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in November 2008 to 9 months this November. As I observe above though, the inventory of homes remains high.

Average sales price for all homes have been improving modestly for the past year. For New units, prices decreased to $297,708 from $405,259 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices increased to $221,246 from $211,292 in October. The price trend is up for the year.

Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in November was 172 this month vs. 117 last month. Days On Market for Used was 165 this month vs. 172 last month.

We see improvement in the second home market which is needed for the coastal area to gain strength. While there is still a lot of inventory particularly in the upper price ranges, sales are continuing to improve. The situation on the coast remains quite positive.

TWB 12/14/2013

Baldwin County Real Estate Sales Remain Strong in October

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of October 2013

Sales dollars declined 15% in October to $94,693,836 from September’s $111,182,489. This is 16% above October last year at $81,980,796. (Sect A p.2). This is a strong showing for October, the slower fall season. The 12 month moving average line of sales has continued to point up steadily for three years now. Inventories are slowly trending down.

On a unit basis, sales of all houses were down 10% at 415 this month vs. last month at 459, which is up 16% from last year’s 359. In spite of the substantially improved sales climate, it is important to point out that the inventories of homes over $400,000 while improving from really bad levels, remain at over a 12 month supply.

Used Home sales declined 6% to 367 this month vs. 389 last month, which is up 13% from last year’s 326 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 48 this month vs 70 last month compared with 33 last year. Increasing year over year sales of New Homes is indicative of a recovering market.

New listings for New homes decreased to 82 from 94 in September. Used homes New listings decreased to 594 from 606 in September with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has once again been improving. In October, there were 3,430 Active Used homes, a reduction from 3,910 in September. The New home market, which peaked in October 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 416.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 9 months of inventory for October vs. 10 in September. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 9 months of inventory for October vs. 10 in September. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in October 2008 to 9 months this October. As I observe above though, the inventory of homes remains high.

Average sales price for all homes have been improving modestly for the past year. For New units, prices decreased to $357,428 from $357,864 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices decreased to $211,273 from $221,419 in September. The price trend is up for the year.

Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in October was 117 this month vs. 161 last month. Days On Market for Used was 172 this month vs. 165 last month.

We see improvement in the second home market, which is needed for the coastal area to gain strength. While there is still a lot of inventory particularly in the upper price ranges, sales are continuing to improve. The situation on the coast remains quite positive.

TWB 11/16/2013

Baldwin County Real Estate Sales in August Up 20% Over Last Year

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of July 2013

Sales dollars improved 8% in July to $124,260,240 from June’s $114,883,928. This is 20% above July last year at $103,293,794. (Sect A p.2). A increase in July sales is somewhat unusual and may be a encouraging sign of a continuing improving market. The 12 month moving average line of sales has continued to point up steadily for three years now. Inventories are steadily trending down.

On a unit basis, sales of all houses were up 1% at 495 this month vs. last month at 489, which is up 29% from last year’s 383. In spite of the substantially improved sales climate, it is important to point out that the inventories of homes over $300,000 while improving from really bad levels, remain at over a 12 month supply.

Used Home sales improved 5% to 451 this month vs. 428 last month, which is up 18% from last year’s 383 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 44 this month vs 61 last month compared with 29 last year. Increasing sales of New Homes is indicative of a recovering market.

New listings for New homes decreased to 74 from 97 in June. Used homes New listings increased to 784 from 776 in June with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has once again been improving. In July, there were 3,597 Active Used homes, a reduction from 3,910 in June. The New home market, which peaked in July 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 363.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 9 months of inventory for July vs. 10 in June. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 10 months of inventory for July vs. 11 in June. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in July 2008 to 10 months this July. As I observe above though, the inventory for homes remains high.

Average sales price for all homes have been improving modestly for the past year. For New units, prices decreased to $218,380 from $258,086 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices increased to $254,216 from $231,637 in June. The price trend is up for the year.

Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in July was 186 this month vs. 90 last month. Days On Market for Used was 154 this month vs. 193 last month.

We see improvement in the second home market, which is needed for the coastal area to gain strength. While there is still a lot of inventory particularly in the upper price ranges, sales are continuing to improve. I think the situation on the coast has turned quite positive.

TWB 8/11/2013

August Alabama Coastal Real Estate Sales Encouraging

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal Areas MLS*: Observations for the Month of August 2011

Dollar sales this month increased 13% to $87,098,253 from July’s $77,284,985. This is 40% above August last year at $62,166,514 when sales were impacted by the oil spill and the tax credit expiration (Sect A p.2). The 12 month moving average line of sales is quite clearly on an upwards tilt.

The chart in Section A p.18 has been showing substantial inventory reduction for a year, but not so much from sales as people not listing properties. The reduction in Active listings will probably help the market somewhat. Inventories remain very high. Used inventory is now hovering about 4,000, a full 2,000 below August 2008, but the sales level has also shrunk dramatically. We did not see a normal inventory build-up during the summer. The number of Active listings continues to drop, which is positive (more below).

The 12 month moving average line of unit sales for Used homes had a pronounced upward slope through April 2010. But with the spill, it had been showing a slight downward trend. Now, for the last year, the line is trending up. On a unit basis, sales of all houses improved 2% to 416 this month vs. 406 last month, which is 15% up from last year’s 362.

In the under $100,000 price range there has been an unusual pick up in activity over the last six months going from 60-80 sales per month to 100-120 per month. It almost appears that some entity is buying up these lower priced properties? At the other end, 12 homes over $900,000 sold which is a nice increase.

Used Home sales improved up 9% to 388 this month vs. 373 last month, which is up 31% from last year’s 296 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 28 this month vs 28 last month. The low number of sales of New homes reflects the intense competition from existing, and a virtual shutdown of new construction.

New listings for New homes increased to 66 from 51 in July. Used houses New listings decreased to 675 from 697 in July with net inventory still down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has once again been improving. In August, there were 4,010 Active Used homes, a reduction from 4,491 in July. The New home market, which peaked in August 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 347.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 13 months of inventory for August vs. 13 in July. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 12 months of inventory for August vs. 14 in July. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in August 2008 to 12 months in August. (Sect A p.17).

Average sales price for all homes has been stable for the past year. For New units, prices increased to $298,172 from $203,440 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices increased to $202,962 from $201,658 in July.

Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in August was 303 this month (I regard that as a good sign as old inventory is moving) vs. 177 last month. Days On Market for Used was 178 this month vs. 185 last month.

TWB 9/11/2011

Slow Start to Spring Sales On the Alabama Coast

Baldwin County MLS* & Alabama Coastal Areas: Observations for the Month of March 2011

This month dollar sales improved a tepid less than 1% to $69,831,229 from February’s $69,394,255. This is 12% below March last year at $79,516,428 and is discouraging (Sect A p.2). Nonetheless, the 12 month moving average line of sales is pretty flat. Normally there is a substantial jump in March from February as the spring sales season begins.

The chart in Section A p.18 has been showing substantial inventory reduction for ten months, but not so much from sales as people not listing properties. The reduction in Active listings will probably help the market somewhat. Inventories remain very high. Used inventory is now below 4,000, a full 2,000 below August 2008, but the sales level has also shrunk dramatically. The number of Active listings is at the lowest level since early 2006, which is positive (more below).

The 12 month moving average line of unit sales for Used homes had a pronounced upward slope through six months ago. But with the spill, it had been showing a slight downward trend due to the size and counter cyclical nature of the sales drop. For the last several months, the line has begun to point up. On a unit basis, sales of all houses improved more than dollar sales, up 15% to 380 this month vs. 330 last month, which is 3% off from last year’s 390.

Used house unit sales were up to 347 from 312 last month. With a very large jump in under $100,000 properties and $100,000-$200,000 properties, there were for instance 97 under 100,000 properties sold this month compared with 68 last month. There was no single area dominating the increase. New home unit sales improved to 33 from 18 last month (Sect A p.18). The low number of sales of New homes reflects the intense competition from existing, and an extended slowdown of new construction.

New listings for New homes increased slightly to 47 from 40 in February. Used houses New listings remained at 748 this month (net inventory was still down). We have not seen a dramatic increase in spring listings yet.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has once again started to improve slightly. In March, there were 3,883 Active Used homes, a 11% reduction from 4,339 in February. The New home market, which peaked in March 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 337.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 11 months of inventory for March vs. 12 in February. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 13 months of inventory for March vs. 15 in February. (Sect A p.17).

Average sales price for all homes had been trending down, but now is showing some signs of stability. For New units, prices increased to $217,950 from $213,320 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home price decreased to $180,516 from $210,111 in February. Over the last three months Six Used homes in the over $900,000 price range sold each month, which is a notable positive change. It seems that word is out though, and there were 30 new listings. Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in March was 240 this month vs. 254 last month. Days On Market for Used was 173 this month vs. 204 last month.

TWB 4/11/2011

Alabama Coastal Real Estate Finishes The Year On A Positive Note

Baldwin County MLS* & Alabama Coastal Areas: Observations for the month of December 2010


December was surprisingly strong with dollar sales improving 21% to $62,276,731 from November’s $51,587,206. This is 1% above December last year at $61,435,554 (Sect A p.2). As a result, the 12 month moving average line of sales is still trending down, but not by much. I suspect the sales increase was motivated by people on both sides anxious to get transactions done by the tax year-end. The sales results varied widely by area with several coastal areas showing some improvement.

Baldwin Total Dollar Sales

Baldwin Total Dollar Sales


Our chart in Section A p.18 shows the historical trends for absolute units of inventory and months of inventory for New and Used units. This chart has been showing substantial inventory reduction for six months which is not so much from sales as people simply not putting properties on the market. The abnormally large drop in inventory at year end is due to expirations that have not been renewed. Inventories remain very high. Used inventory is now at 4,000, a full 2,000 below August 2008. The number of Active listings is at the lowest level since early 2006, which is positive. (more below)


The 12 month moving average line of unit sales for Used homes had a pronounced upward slope through six months ago. But with the spill, it now shows a slight downward trend due to the size and counter cyclical nature of the sales drop. On a unit basis, sales of all houses went up, in line with the dollar sales, to 301 this month vs. 268 last month, which is also better than last year’s 295

.

Used house unit sales were up to 285 from 244 last month. New home unit sales improved to 25 from 24 last month (Sect A p.18). The low number of sales of new homes reflects the intense competition from existing, and an extended slowdown of new construction.

Baldwin Absorption And Inventory

Baldwin Absorption And Inventory

New listings for New homes fell to 9 in December from 35 in November. Used houses New listings decreased to 131 this month from 499 in November.


The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has once again started to decline slightly. In December, there were 3,992 Active Used homes, a 15% reduction from 4,713 in November. The New home market, which peaked in December 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 354.


The Absorption rate for New homes was 12 months of inventory for December vs. 13 in November. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 14 months of inventory for December vs. 17 in November. (Sect A p.17).


Average sales price for all homes has been trending down. But, the New home average spiked again this month. Since there are so few new homes sold lately the average prices can be quite volatile. For New units prices increased to $234,752 from $231,344 last month. Life is still very difficult for those trying to sell higher priced homes, and while there is some reduction in absolute numbers of listings, the months of inventory continues to climb. (Sect A p.14).

 

Average Used home price increased to $197,922 from $188,667 in November.

Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in December was 238 this month vs. 234 last month. Days On Market for Used was 183 this month vs. 191 last month.

 

TWB 1/10/2011