Tag Archives: August

Birmingham August Real Estate Sales Up Modestly Over Last Year

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for August 2013

Dollar sales in August declined by an expected seasonal 10% to $267,672,127 from July’s $298,747,801, up modestly by 3% from last August’s $259,348,665. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to move up indicating continued improving market conditions. This is encouraging as we head into the slower fall sales season.

Birmingham Aug Projection

Birmingham Aug Projection

Unit sales were off 2% to 1,429 in August from 1,462 in July, a decrease of 33. This is up 1% from August 2012 at 1,418.This number will increase as late sales are reported. Our ABRE/ACRE Projections for 2013 projected 1,402 sales for August. For August, actual sales for the month were .2% higher than projections and 0.8% higher year to date. Please see here for a summary of the projections http://goo.gl/nytW8 and the spreadsheet with details and month by month projections by area http://goo.gl/GEYWa (see the tabs on the bottom). New sales decreased by 9 units to 138 homes this month from 147 in July and are off by 10 from 148 last year. Used sales declined 2% to 1,291 homes in August from 1,315 last month, a decrease of 96, and up by 21 units from 1,270 last year(Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 10% lower at 9,583 vs. 10,663 last year and 10,426 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. While we are seeing a seasonal uptick in inventory it is still lower than prior years. Although New home inventories are beginning to look a bit high. Active New listings decreased to 824 in August from 1,149 in July, a decline of 325 units (Sect E p.3).  Housing permits went up in Jefferson County to 101 for July from 68 in June. Shelby County permits went down to 32 from 46 (see website for details).

Absorption rate for New homes is edging up. New homes are at 6 months supply this month which is  one month better than 7 last year at this time. Last month though, shows 9 months of supply (Sect E p.3). The New homes for the most part have normal inventory levels in the 4-8 month range. The $400,000- $500,000 is at 9 months and  $700,000- $800,000 new inventory is at 10 months (5 homes). (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in August shows 8 months, two months better than 10 months last year. Used Active listings at 8,759 are lower than the 9,832 last year (Sect E p.3). The number of homes listed in the over $600,000 price range has been climbing somewhat faster than sales, resulting in some upward drift in the months of sales (generally over a year). The market performance is highly area specific, so check the area charts. For instance, Mountain Brook has about four months of inventory except in the over $900,000 category which has 10 months of inventory.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 238 compared to last month at 245.This indicates that some of the older stock of new homes are selling. The Used homes DOM was 126 in August, compared with 130 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in about 4  months.

Average sales price for Sold New homes increased to $290,677 from $280,227 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales price for Sold Used homes decreased to $176,265 from $195,859 last month (Sect A p2). The moving average price for Used Homes has been up steadily for the last year. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has also been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, New and Used, are improving  (Sect A p2).

TWB 9/14/13


Baldwin County Real Estate Sales in August Up 20% Over Last Year

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of July 2013

Sales dollars improved 8% in July to $124,260,240 from June’s $114,883,928. This is 20% above July last year at $103,293,794. (Sect A p.2). A increase in July sales is somewhat unusual and may be a encouraging sign of a continuing improving market. The 12 month moving average line of sales has continued to point up steadily for three years now. Inventories are steadily trending down.

On a unit basis, sales of all houses were up 1% at 495 this month vs. last month at 489, which is up 29% from last year’s 383. In spite of the substantially improved sales climate, it is important to point out that the inventories of homes over $300,000 while improving from really bad levels, remain at over a 12 month supply.

Used Home sales improved 5% to 451 this month vs. 428 last month, which is up 18% from last year’s 383 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 44 this month vs 61 last month compared with 29 last year. Increasing sales of New Homes is indicative of a recovering market.

New listings for New homes decreased to 74 from 97 in June. Used homes New listings increased to 784 from 776 in June with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has once again been improving. In July, there were 3,597 Active Used homes, a reduction from 3,910 in June. The New home market, which peaked in July 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 363.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 9 months of inventory for July vs. 10 in June. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 10 months of inventory for July vs. 11 in June. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in July 2008 to 10 months this July. As I observe above though, the inventory for homes remains high.

Average sales price for all homes have been improving modestly for the past year. For New units, prices decreased to $218,380 from $258,086 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices increased to $254,216 from $231,637 in June. The price trend is up for the year.

Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in July was 186 this month vs. 90 last month. Days On Market for Used was 154 this month vs. 193 last month.

We see improvement in the second home market, which is needed for the coastal area to gain strength. While there is still a lot of inventory particularly in the upper price ranges, sales are continuing to improve. I think the situation on the coast has turned quite positive.

TWB 8/11/2013