Tag Archives: Alabama Real Estate

Birmingham December Real Estate Results Continue The Upbeat Trend Of The Year

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for December 2016

December saw a continuation of the pick up in dollar sales over last year, while unit sales dropped slightly from last years’ level. Prices seem to be modestly increasing. Total dollar sales for December were $267,737,105 up 9% from $244,629,462 last year, and down 4% from last month at $278,084,382.

Full Year Summary:

All units New units Used Units Avg New Price Avg Used Price Avg All price Total dollars New home dollars
2016 18373 2047 16326 $301,328 $192,425 $204,794 $3,791,190,965 $619,232,393
2015 16956 1769 15187 $302,040 $183,855 $196,350 $3,356,751,833 $534,039,767
% ∆ 8.36% 15.72% 7.50% -0.24% 4.66% 4.30% 12.94% 15.95%

Total Unit sales were off 4% at 1,281 in December from 1,337 in November, a decrease of 56. This is off by 2% and 22 from last December at 1,303. New sales were up to 206 homes this month, and 166 in November, and up by 38 from 168 last year. The low inventory level of new homes suggests a good environment for builders, and prices have begun to show a more solid uptrend. Used sales were 1,075 homes in December, off 8% from 1,171 last month, a decrease of 96, off by 60 units  from 1,135 last year (Sect E p.3).

ACRE numbers are slightly different from those we report. With ACRE, we released our month by month 2016 forecast which can be seen here: ACRE. For Birmingham, the full year projection for 2016 = 13,460, a 1.25% difference from 2015 actual of 13,294.  December overperformed the projection. The cumulative error is plus 9% for the year; that is actuals are ahead of projections, 14,705 through year end, an increase of 11% over 2015. The forecast for 2017 should be out in late January, once all the December numbers are recorded.

Housing permits for November are a bit less than last year. For Jefferson County, in November there were 53 permits compared with 58 last year. Shelby County was somewhat lower than last year’s level as well.

Total inventory is slightly lower this month at 7,926 vs. last month at 8,608 and less than 9,123 last year. (Sect C p.1). Active New listings decreased to 1,047 in December from 1,169 in November (Sect E p.3). Absorption rate for New homes is at 6 months supply this month, which is less than 7 months last year. (Sect E p.3). The New homes have normal inventory levels in the 4-8 month range depending on area and price range. (Sect C p.1). The level of inventory, both in months of inventory and housing units, has been continuing to improve for the year.

Absorption for Used homes in December shows 5 months, which is less than the 6 last year. Used Active listings at 6,879 are down from last month of 7,439, and quite a bit less than 8,126 last year (Sect E p.3). Inventory levels have continued to trend down from prior years. Market performance is highly area specific, so check the individual area charts. For instance, Mountain Brook has between 1 and 4 months of inventory, 3 months overall, except in the over $900,000 category, which has 6 months of inventory (32 homes), with 9 sold in that price range last month. There are a number of MLS areas, particularly those known as the “over the mountain” communities, showing similarly low levels, including Homewood which has 3 months of inventory.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 171 compared with last month at 209. The Used homes DOM was 119 in December vs 122 last month, (Sect A p.18). Average sales price for Sold New homes increased to $313,274 from $299,890 last month (Sect A p2), over a several month period prices seem to be increasing. Average sales price for Sold Used was $189,026 this month compared to $194,964 last month. (Sect A p2).

All in all, the market continues to look quite healthy.

TWB 1/14/2017  

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Coastal Alabama Wraps Up 2016 In Great Style

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of December 2016

Sales dollars increased 21% in December to $155,437,713 from November $128,478,837. This is up 23% from last year’s record level of $126,001,010. (Sect A p.2). The 12 month moving average line of sales, after a pause during the summer months, has been heading substantially up.

Full Year summary:

All units New units Used Units Avg New Price Avg Used Price Avg All price Total dollars
2016 6723 1124 5598 $249,357 $255,065 $254,160 $1,712,999,817
2015 6324 823 5501 $250,329 $242,023 $243,098 $1,542,057,978
% ∆ 6.31% 36.57% 1.76% -0.39% 5.39% 4.55% 11.09%

Sales in most price categories show consistent improvement as do inventories. Check out the chart on page A-17 to fully appreciate the inventory trends. Still, inventory remains high, but improving, for anything over $500,000. Note that price ranges with inventories over a year are fewer, for instance, the price ranges of $600,000-$800,000 are at just 10-11 months. With the $500,000-$600,000 at 14 months. Amazingly, the over $900,000 category is now at 23 months with 156 active and 9 sold this month.

In concert with ACRE, The Alabama Center for Real Estate, we have projected expectations for 2016. We use the ACRE provided data for the projections, which differs slightly from the data in this report. The projection for 2016 located here expected projected home sales in 2016 of 5,139, which is a -1.74% difference from 2015 actual of  5,230. Full year actual sales are 8% above expectations. 5571 sales were recorded for the year which is 432 more than projected and 341 more than 2015.  New projections for 2017 will be out once all the December results are available (statewide).

On a unit basis, sales of all houses were up 72 at 559 this month vs. last month at 487, which is up from last year’s healthy level of 491. Used Home sales increased to 457 this month vs. 409 last month, which is up from last year’s 423 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 102 this month vs 78 last month and compared with 68 last year. New listings for New homes decreased to 130 from 137 in November. Used homes New listings decreased to 338 from 530 in November with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has been consistently improving. In December, there were 2,676 Active Used homes, a reduction from 3,403 in November and a new multi year low. New homes, which peaked in December 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sit at 609.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 7 months of inventory in December vs. 8 in November. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 6 months of inventory in December vs. 7 in November. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in November 2008 to 6 months this December. I have been expecting construction to begin to pick-up in the under $400,000 range, and this has happened. Sales have been keeping up, so we have not seen an increase in inventory.

Average sales price for all homes has been static for the past year. For New units, average price increased to  $268,115 from $258,127 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices were up this month, to $280,284 from $264,902 in November. Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in December was 183 vs last month of 172. Days On Market for Used was 156 vs. last month 166. In my opinion, the results point to a strong upcoming year.         

TWB 1/15/2017

Birmingham, Alabama June 2008 Real Estate Market summary

Monthly Observations June 2008
This is a summary from our 140 page monthly report, call for details!

Total dollar sales decreased 10% to $266,376,570 in June from $295,810,919 in May*. Normally June is an “up” month so the decline is particularly worrisome

Birmingham Total Dollar Sales June 2008

Birmingham Total Dollar Sales June 2008

This is a 37.5% reduction from 2007 ($426,326,884). I have been suggesting that we are seeing signs of a bottoming process in the local real estate market, June’s results against a backdrop of high oil prices and failing financial markets and institutions (such as IndyMac which failed yesterday) is making me more pessimistic (page A-4). There are still indications we are better off than many areas of the country, but it is still a tough situation.

For the first 6 months of 2008 total dollar sales are running 28% less than the same period last year. Sellers will have to continue to adjust their expectations in this slow market. We won’t be seeing much improvement any time soon. There are buyers out there, but they can be very choosy. The sales levels this year are between the 2003 and 2004 levels, and I’d be surprised to see them move outside that range for the next year. On a unit basis, total sales for the comparable 6 month period are down by 24.3% for all houses and 34.4% for new houses. Absorption rates for new homes improved to 7.8 months from 8.6 months of inventory last month. This is slightly worse than last year at this time (7.5) (Section E page 3). It is mainly in the higher price ranges (above $500,000) that new house inventories are truly excessive at over a year.

Birmingham June 2008 Summary Table

Birmingham June 2008 Summary Table

Click on  the tale on the right for detailed inventory and sales data by price range for the month. (the main report breaks this data out into areas) Under this $500,000 price threshold, except for the under $100,000 homes where the inventory is 9.3 months, the inventories are fairly reasonable (almost normal), in the 6 to 8 month range. The bigger developers in these lower price ranges are almost sold out (0 to 5 months of supply), with the remaining inventory held mostly in the smaller developments. In short, the builders are doing a decent job of reducing inventory.

Total unit sales deteriorated by 6.8% to 1,415 in June from 1,518 in May a decline of 103 units. New sales
declined to 312 homes this month from 346 in May, a decline of 34 units. Used sales declined to 1,103 homes in June from 1,172 last month, a decline of 69 (sect E page 3). The number of months of supply “absorption” for used homes has been increasing over the last 6 months through June to 11.3 months of inventory. This is a 2 month increase from last year’s level at this time (See section E page 3).

Birmingham area builders are doing a fair job of reacting to the market, and constraining new construction supply, but consumers who are the sellers of existing houses are having a harder time as the supply of used homes for sale is climbing. The build up of existing housing supply will continue to impact the new housing market.

The number of new homes for sale peaked at 3,993 in September of last year, and now sits at 2,876, having
declined in each month since the peak.

Good news: There was a 4.4% decline in active listings from 15,543 active listings in May* down to 14,856 in June, a decrease of 677 units. Active New listings decreased to 2,876 in June from 3,330 in May, a decrease of 454 units (E-3). There were only 312 new houses sold in the month, so the reduction is partially due to the higher failure rate, which is the number of houses whose listings have expired or canceled without a sale, partially offset by a lower number of new listings. Active Used listings decreased to 11,990 this month from 12,213 last month, a decrease of 223 (page E-3).
Birmingham area Average Days on Market for new houses deteriorated to 152 days as compared to 143 days
last month. Used houses improved to 94 days compared to 102 days in May (sec A page 18).
Birmingham area Average sales prices for sold new homes increased to $253,556 from $248,346 (Chart sect A p2). Average sales prices for sold used homes decreased to $169,779 from $178,716 (Chart sect A p2).
TWB 7/12/08
*Caution!: All references to last month (and earlier) numbers show revisions. Each month we pick up late
entries (i.e. ones made after our prior publication date) to the MLS system.