Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of July 2016
Sales dollars decreased 13% in July to $152,323,846 from June $174,282,839. This is 2% off July last year’s record level at $155,766,731. (Sect A p.2). The 12 month moving average line of sales, after a pause of three months, appears to be resuming its upward trend. Lack of new construction now seems to be depressing sales somewhat. Inventories are continuing to trend down very consistently. But, in spite of reducing inventories and generally healthy sales levels, average prices look fairly flat.
Sales in most price categories show consistent improvement. Inventories are also improving. Check out the chart on page A-17 to fully appreciate the inventory trends. Still, inventory remains high, but improving, at over a year for anything over $500,000.
In concert with ACRE, The Alabama Center for Real Estate, we have projected expectations for 2016. We use the ACRE provided data for the projections, which differs slightly from the data in this report. The projection for 2016 located here expects projected home sales in 2016 of 5,139, which is a -1.74% difference from 2015 actual of 5,230. Year to date through July actual sales are 4.6% above expectations. 141 more units were sold through July than the 3,090 projected.
On a unit basis, sales of all houses were off at 620 this month vs. last month at 658, which is off from last year’s healthy level of 624. Used Home sales decreased to 518 this month vs. 540 last month, which is off from last year’s 540 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 102 this month vs 118 last month and compared with 84 last year. New listings for New homes decreased to 111 from 148 in June. Used homes New listings declined to 665 from 769 in June with net inventory down.
The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has been consistently improving. In July, there were 3,218 Active Used homes, a reduction from 3,862 in June and a new multi year low. New homes, which peaked in July 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sit at 551.
The Absorption rate for New homes was 7 months of inventory in July vs. 8 in June. The Absorption rate for Used homes was also 7 months of inventory in July vs. 9 in June. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in June 2008 to 7 months this July. The inventory of homes in the upper price range remains high with homes priced $500,000 and over at a year’s supply, but even here we are seeing improvement. I have been expecting construction to begin to pick-up in the under $400,000 range, and we have seen a pick-up in New homes, New listings where sales seem to be keeping up so net inventory of new home remains low in these price ranges.
Average sales price for all homes has been static for the past year. For New units, average price decreased to $239,135 from $271,759 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices decreased to $246,973 from $263,362 in June. Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in July was 163 vs last month of 167. Days On Market for Used was 165 compared to last month 141.