Alabama Coastal Real Estate Did Well In February

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of February 2015

Sales dollars increased an expected 15% in February to $105,019,728 from January $90,927,509. This is 1% above February last year at $104,260,906. (Sect A p.2). The 12 month moving average line of sales, which had continued to point up steadily for three years, is showing a modest upwards tilt. Lack of new construction now seems to be depressing sales somewhat. Inventories are continuing to trend down very consistently.

Sales in most price categories show consistent improvement. Inventories are improving. Check out the chart on page A-17 to fully appreciate the inventory trends. Still, inventory remains high at over a year for anything over $500,000.

In concert with ACRE, The Alabama Center for Real Estate, we have projected expectations for 2016. We use the ACRE provided data for the projections, which differs slightly from the data in this report. The projection for 2016 located here expects a projected 2016 = 5,139, which is a -1.74% difference from 2015 actual of = 5,230. Year to date thru February actual sales are 1.6% above expectations.

On a unit basis, sales of all houses were up 14% at 440 this month vs. last month at 379, which is about identical with last year’s healthy level of 426. Used Home sales increased 14% to 364 this month vs. 320 last month, which is off 1% from last year’s 368 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 76 this month vs 59 last month and compared with 58 last year. New listings for New homes increased to 134 from 119 in January. Used homes New listings declined to 755 from 806 in January with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has been consistently  improving. In February, there were 3,193 Active Used homes, a reduction from 3,521 in January and a new multi year low level. New homes, which peaked in February 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sit at 493.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 7 months of inventory in February vs. 9 in January. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 7 months of inventory in February vs. 8 in January. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in January 2008 to 7 months this February. The inventory of homes in the upper price range remains high with homes over $500,000 at over a year’s supply, but even here we are seeing improvement. I would expect construction to begin to pick-up in the under $400,000 range, but so far have not seen it.

Average sales price for all homes has been improving modestly for the past year. For New units, price increased to  $252,121 from $248,944 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices decreased to $235,875 from $238,249 in January. The price trend is up for the year. Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in February was 171 vs last month of 175. Days On Market for Used was 165 compared to last month 175.


TWB 3/13/2016


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