Alabama Coastal Real Estate Has an Outstanding Year


Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of December 2015

Baldwin Monthly Sales

Baldwin Monthly Sales

Full Year Results:

Total Units New Used Total Dollars
2014 5,655 674 4,979 $1,339,354,065
2015 6,300 821 5,479 $1,536,937,695
% change 11.4% 21.8% 10.0% 14.8%

Sales dollars increased more than expected; 33% in December to $122,750,797 from November $92,442,408. This is 24% above December last year at $99,245,507. (Sect A p.2). There was also an expected increase in last month late reported sales, making every month this year better than last year’s healthy levels.The 12 month moving average line of sales, which had continued to point up steadily for three years, has now gotten a healthy upwards tilt. Lack of new construction now seems to be depressing sales somewhat. Inventories are trending down.

Sales in most price categories show consistent improvement. Inventories are improving, but remain high at over a year for anything over $500,000. This month the $400,000-$500,000 inventory dipped to 9 months.

In concert with ACRE, The Alabama Center for Real Estate, we have projected expectations for 2015. We use the ACRE provided data for the projections, which differs slightly from the data in this report. The projection for 2015 located here expected a unit increase of 17% over 2014 actual. Through November cumulative sales are running 8% ahead of the projection. As of the moment December is not yet available.

On a unit basis, sales of all houses were up 22% at 479 this month vs. last month at 394, which is 22% better than last year’s healthy level of 466. Used Home sales decreased 17% to 414 this month vs. 351 last month, which is up 3% from last year’s 399 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 65 this month vs 43 last month and compared with 66 last year. New listings for New homes decreased to 99 from 134 in November. Used homes New listings decreased to 366 from 527 in November with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has been consistently  improving. In December, there were 2,956 Active Used homes, a reduction from 3,657 in November and a new multi year low level. New homes, which peaked in December 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 486.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 7 months of inventory in December vs. 9 in November. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 7 months of inventory in December vs. 8 in November. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in November 2008 to 7 months this December. The inventory of homes in the upper price range remains high with homes over $500,000 at over a year’s supply, but even here we are seeing improvement. I would expect construction to begin to pick-up in the under $400,000 range, but so far have not seen it.

Average sales price for all homes has been improving modestly for the past year. For New units, prices increased to  $241,463 from $227,591 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices increased to $258,589 from $235,487 in November. The price trend is up for the year. Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in December was 161 vs last month of 170. Days On Market for Used was 160 compared to last month 149.

TWB 1/10/2016

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