Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of July 2015
Sales dollars decreased 5% in July to $154,052,831(a record for July) from June $162,801,446. This is 41% better than July last year at $109,094,980. (Sect A p.2). The 12 month moving average line of sales which had continued to point up steadily for three years, except for the last part of last year and the first few months of this year, has now gotten a healthy upwards tilt due to the record setting last five months gains. Last year was the best sales year since 2005, and the last five months has been substantially above that level. The lack of new construction now seems to be depressing sales somewhat. Inventories continue trending down.
Sales in most price categories have begun to show consistent improvement. Inventories are improving but remain high at over a year for anything over $400,000.
In concert with ACRE, The Alabama Center for Real Estate, we have projected expectations for 2015. We use the ACRE provided data for the projections, which differs slightly from the data in this report. While the projection last year was not very accurate, I believe that this year will be much better as we now have more ”normal “data not distorted by the oil spill and weather. The projection for 2015 located here expects a unit increase of 4.75% over 2014 actual. Through June cumulative sales are running 7% ahead of the projection. For the month of June sales were 9% ahead of the projection.
On a unit basis, sales of all houses were off 4% to 631 this month vs. last month at 602, which is 29% above last year’s healthy level of 479. There is still substantial inventory available to satisfy demand.
Used Home sales decreased 5% to 535 this month vs. 561 last month, which is up 22% from last year’s 437 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 83 this month vs 81 last month and compared with 42 last year.
New listings for New homes increased to 97 from 95 in June. Used homes New listings decreased to 734 from 761 in June with net inventory down.
The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has once again been improving. In July, there were 3,615 Active Used homes, a reduction from 4,167 in June. The New home market, which peaked in July 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 436.
The Absorption rate for New homes was 7 months of inventory in July vs. 8 in June. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 8 months of inventory in July vs. 9 in June. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in June 2008 to 8 months this July. The inventory of homes in the upper price range remains high with homes over $400,000 at over a year’s supply but even here we are seeing improvement. I would expect to see construction begin to pick-up in the under $400,000 range, but so far have not seen it.
Average sales price for all homes has been improving modestly for the past year. For New units, prices decreased to $234,869 from $268,416 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices increased to $251,512 from $251,443 in June. The price trend is up for the year. Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in July was 174 vs last month of 178. Days On Market for Used was 152 compared to last month 158.