Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for July 2015
Last month the Birmingham MLS changed its base system, and while we recoded data from the new system to match the old, we saw some inconsistencies last month which have now been corrected, which resulted in increased sales for June, and we corrected the history. We will continue checking over the next few months. Let me know if you see anything strange!
Dollar sales in July experienced a seasonal decline of 12% to $333,149,084 from June’s $379,642,929, up by 1% over last July’s of $329,096,,532. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales is showing consistent growth.
Total Unit sales were down 7% to 1,614 in July from 1,728 in June, a decrease of 114. This is off 1% from last July at 1601. New sales decreased by 44 units to 140 homes this month from 184 in June and off from 156 last year. The price pressure and low inventory levels of new homes suggests a good environment for builders. Used sales were 1,474 homes in July, down 5% from 1,544 last month, a decrease of 70, and up by 29 units or 2% from 1,445 last year (Sect E p.3).
ACRE numbers are slightly different from those we report. With ACRE, we released our 2015 forecast which can be seen here: ACRE. For June, the latest available: June sales were 4.5% or 62 unit above our forecast. ACRE’s year-to-date sales forecast through June projected 6,650 closed transactions while the actual sales were 6,690 units, a cumulative variance of .6%.
Total inventory is about even this month at 10,367 vs. last month at 10,402 and 2% less than the 10,532 last year. Active New listings decreased to 936 in July from 1,028 in June, a decline of 92 units (Sect E p.3).
Housing permits were up in Jefferson County to 109 in June from 108 in May, which is down from 142 last year. Shelby County went from 32 to 38 in June, up from 25 last year. We are seeing a more significant number of multi-family construction units (which we do not formally track or report), in most markets. I am surprised by the continued low level of new home building.
Absorption rate for New homes is at 6 months supply this month, which is even with 6 months last year. (Sect E p.3). The New homes for the most part have normal inventory levels in the 1-7 month range depending on area and price range. The $800,000-$900,000 range has 15 months of supply however (Sect C p.1 )
Absorption for Used homes in July shows 8 months which is even with 8 months last year. Used Active listings at 9,431 are up from last month at 9,374 and lower than the 9,701 last year (Sect E p.3). Market performance is highly area specific, so check the individual area charts. For instance, Mountain Brook has between 3 and 9 months of inventory except in the over $900,000 category, which has 11 months of inventory (50 homes), with 4 sold in that price range last month . The average days on market for that category is 85. There are a number of MLS areas showing similarly low levels of inventory, including Homewood and Fultondale.
Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 194 compared with last month at 205. The Used homes DOM was 117 in July vs 126 last month, (Sect A p.18). Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $292,006 from $307,082 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales price for Sold Used homes decreased to $198,282 from $209,288 last month (Sect A p2). The moving average price for all homes has been up steadily for the past year. (Sect A p2).