October Residential Real Estate Sales for Alabama Coast Healthy

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of October 2014

Sales dollars increased 10% in October to $111,048,100 from September of $101,192,877. This is 4% better than October last year at $107,035,836. (Sect A p.2). The 12 month moving average line of sales which had continued to point up steadily for three years can now best be described as “squiggly.” I would characterize the market activity as “unusual”. Inventories continue trending down.

In concert with ACRE, The Alabama Center for Real Estate, we did projections for 2014 full year sales. We use the ACRE provided data for the projections, which differs slightly from the data in this report. We project unit sales for Baldwin County increasing by 32% over 2013 and the projected condo increase of  8% over 2013.  As of September, the cumulative year over year change in units is up 4%, far short of the adjusted forecast. The condo actuals are cumulatively at about 8% below the forecast, with a 1% year over year change.

On a unit basis, sales of all houses were up 2% to 473 this month vs. last month at 463, which is up 8% from last year’s 439. There is still substantial inventory available to satisfy demand.

Used Home sales increased 6% to 426 this month vs. 402 last month, which is up from last year’s 370 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 49 this month vs 61 last month and compared with 69 last year.

New listings for New homes increased to 96 from 83 in September. Used homes New listings decreased to 659 from 685 in September with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has once again been improving. In October, there were 3,528 Active Used homes, a reduction from 4,024 in September. The New home market, which peaked in October 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 454.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 7 months of inventory in October vs. 8 in September. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 9 months of inventory for October vs. 10 in September. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in September 2008 to 9 months this October. The inventory of homes in the upper price range remains high with homes over $400,000 at over a year’s supply.

Average sales price for all homes has been improving modestly for the past year. For New units, prices increased to  $275.254 from $237,174 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices increased to $229,016 from $215,734 in September. The price trend is up for the year. Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in October was 183 this month vs. 163 last month. Days On Market for Used was 147 this month vs. 170 last month.

TWB 11/8/2014


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