June Alabama Coastal Real Estate Sales Jump 25% From Last Year

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of June 2014

Sales dollars gained 7% in June to $144,578,430 from May of $135,528,316. This is 25% better than June last year at $115,598,828. (Sect A p.2). Major flooding caused by rain storms on May 29 has done considerable damage in the area and has no doubt, had a negative impact on the housing market. The 12 month moving average line of sales had continued to point up steadily for three years has resumed its upward direction, after being flat last month.  Inventories continue trending down.

In concert with ACRE, The Alabama Center for Real Estate, we did projections for 2014 full year sales. We used the ACRE provided data for the projections, which differs slightly from the data in this report. We projected unit sales for Baldwin county increasing by 47.7% over 2013 levels. We have examined our methodology and removed 65 sales from the last quarter  of 2013 which were caused by a major condo project closing. This reduces the expected 2014 gain to 32% over 2013 and the projected condo increase of  8% over 2013  As of June, the cumulative year over year change in units is up 7%, far short of the adjusted forecast. The condo actuals are cumulatively about 4% below the forecast, although this month the units were 142 actual vs 150 projected.

On a unit basis, sales of all houses were up 3% at 578 this month vs. last month at 561, which is up 17% from last year’s 492. It is very hard to envision what will happen as the market adjusts to yet one more major storm shock.There is still substantial inventory available to satisfy demand.

Used Home sales improved 4% to 500 this month vs. 483 last month, which is up 16% from last year’s 431 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 78 this month vs 77 last month and compared with 61 last year.

New listings for New homes increased to 104 from 59 in May. Used homes New listings decreased to 767 from 831 in May with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has once again been improving. In June, there were 3,791 Active Used homes, a reduction from 4,325 in May. The New home market, which peaked in June 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 396.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 6 months of inventory in June vs. 7 in May. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 9 months of inventory for June vs. 10 in May. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in June 2008 to 9 months this June. The inventory of homes in the higher price ranges remains high, homes over $400,000 have over a years supply.

Average sales price for all homes has been improving modestly for the past year.For New units, prices increased to  $246,896 from $220,415 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices increased to $250,641 from $245,120 in May. The price trend is up for the year. Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in June was 203 this month vs. 211 last month. Days On Market for Used was 144 this month vs. 142 last month. The market seems to be recovering somewhat from the latest storm.
TWB 7/12/2014


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