Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for November 2013
Dollar sales in November declined by an expected seasonal 12% to $182,673,229 from October’s $206,744,372, up slightly by 1% from last November’s $181,012,718. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to move up indicating continued improving market conditions. This is reasonable performance in the winter sales season. Early projections for next year are encouraging; sorry I can’t be more specific yet.
Unit sales were off 16% to 995 in November from 1,181 in October, a decrease of 186. This is off 6% from November 2012 at 1,059.This number will increase as late sales are reported. Our ABRE/ACRE Projections for 2013 projected 1,070 sales for November. For November, actual sales for the month were 7% worse than projections and 1% higher than year to date. Please see here for a summary of the projections http://goo.gl/nytW8 and the spreadsheet with details and month by month projections by area http://goo.gl/GEYWa (see the tabs on the bottom). New sales decreased by 27 units to 118 homes this month from 145 in October and are off by 12 from 130 last year. Used sales declined 15% to 877 homes in November from 1,036 last month, a decrease of 159, and up by 52 units from 929 last year(Sect E p.3).
This month total inventory is 8% lower than last month at 9,195 vs. 9,951 last year and 10,168 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. We are seeing a seasonal downtick in inventory and it is slightly lower than prior years, although New home inventories are beginning to look a bit high. Active New listings decreased to 804 in November from 1,072 in October, a decline of 268 units (Sect E p.3). Housing permits were up in Jefferson County to 122 in October from 86 in September and up from 77 in the year ago period. Shelby County went from 16 to 28 in October. Note that the census dept has caught up to October from the shutdown.
Absorption rate for New homes is edging up. New homes are at 6 months supply this month which is one month better than 7 last year at this time. Last month though, shows 8 months of supply (Sect E p.3). The New homes for the most part have normal inventory levels in the 1-7 month range. The $700,000- $800,000 new inventory is at 14 months (7 homes). (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)
Absorption for Used homes in November shows 8 months,one month better than 9 months last year. Used Active listings at 8,385 are lower than the 9,083 last year (Sect E p.3). The number of homes listed in the over $600,000 price range has been climbing somewhat faster than sales, resulting in some upward drift in the months of sales (generally over a year). The market performance is highly area specific, so check the area charts. For instance, Mountain Brook has about three months of inventory except in the over $900,000 category which has 8 months of inventory (29 homes) with four sold in that price range last month . The average days on market for that category is 240 indicating a some older listings are moving.
Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 213 compared to last month at 170. The Used homes DOM was 135 in November, compared with 135 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in about 4 months.
Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $271,066 from $281,859 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales price for Sold Used homes increased to $171,822 from $160,111 last month (Sect A p2). The moving average price for Used Homes has been up steadily for the last year. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has also been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, New and Used, are improving (Sect A p2).