Birmingham October Real Estate Sales Up 12% from last year

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for October 2013

Dollar sales in October declined by an expected seasonal 13% to $204,249,088 from September’s $235,332,290, up nicely  by 12% from last October’s $181,933,504. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to move up indicating continued improving market conditions. This is excellent performance in the fall sales season with no signs of weakness or slowdown.

Birmingham October Projection to Actual

Birmingham October Projection to Actual

Unit sales were off 6% to 1,157 in October from 1,231 in September, a decrease of 270. This is up 9% from October 2012 at 1,066.This number will increase as late sales are reported. Our ABRE/ACRE Projections for 2013 projected 1,095 sales for October. For October, actual sales for the month were 6% better than projections and 2% higher year to date. Please see here for a summary of the projections and the spreadsheet with details and month by month projections by area (see the tabs on the bottom). New sales decreased by 6 units to 142 homes this month from 148 in September and are up by 16 from 126 last year. Used sales declined 6% to 1,015 homes in October from 1,083 last month, a decrease of 68, and up by 75 units from 940 last year(Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 8% lower than last month at 9,455 vs. 10,384 last year and 10,237 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. While we are seeing a seasonal uptick in inventory it is still lower than prior years, although New home inventories are beginning to look a bit high. Active New listings decreased to 804 in October from 1,072 in September, a decline of 268 units (Sect E p.3).  Housing permits were down in Jefferson County to 69 in August from 101 in July. Shelby County went from 32 to 28 in August.

Absorption rate for New homes is edging up. New homes are at 6 months supply this month which is  three months better than 9 last year at this time. Last month though, shows 8 months of supply (Sect E p.3). The New homes for the most part have normal inventory levels in the 4-8 month range. The  $700,000- $800,000 new inventory is at 10 months (5 homes). (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in October shows 8 months, two months better than 10 months last year. Used Active listings at 8,651 are lower than the 9,486 last year (Sect E p.3). The number of homes listed in the over $600,000 price range has been climbing somewhat faster than sales, resulting in some upward drift in the months of sales (generally over a year). The market performance is highly area specific, so check the area charts. For instance, Mountain Brook has about four months of inventory except in the over $900,000 category which has 9 months of inventory (28 homes) with one sold in that price range last month . The average days on market for that category is 98 indicating an aggressive market for properly priced homes..

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 170 compared to last month at 200. The Used homes DOM was 135 in October, compared with 130 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in about 4  months.

Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $283,004 from $288,372 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales price for Sold Used homes decreased to $161,638 from $177,889 last month (Sect A p2). The moving average price for Used Homes has been up steadily for the last year. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has also been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, New and Used, are improving  (Sect A p2).

TWB 11/16/13


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