September Birmingham Area Sales, Start Of A Strong Fall Season

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for September 2013

Birmingham September Projection to Acutal

Birmingham September Projection to Acutal

Dollar sales in September declined by an expected seasonal 16% to $230,124,972 from August’s $274,097,612, up nicely  by 24% from last September’s $186,242,556. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to move up indicating continued improving market conditions. This is good performance as the fall sales season begins.

Unit sales were off 2% to 1,200 in September from 1,470 in August, a decrease of 270. This is up 11% from September 2012 at 1,079.This number will increase as late sales are reported. Our ABRE/ACRE Projections for 2013 projected 1,251 sales for September. For September, actual sales for the month were 4% lower than projections and 0.8% higher year to date. Please see here for a summary of the projections and the spreadsheet with details and month by month projections by area (see the tabs on the bottom). New sales increased by 2 units to 143 homes this month from 141 in August and are up by 8 from 148 last year. Used sales declined 20% to 1,057 homes in September from 1,329 last month, a decrease of 271, and up by 111 units from 946 last year(Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 5% lower than last month at 9,694 vs. 10,215 last year and 10,520 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. While we are seeing a seasonal uptick in inventory it is still lower than prior years, although New home inventories are beginning to look a bit high. Active New listings decreased to 825 in September from 1,122 in August, a decline of 297 units (Sect E p.3).  Housing permits were not available due to the government shutdown (insert the political comment of your choice here).

Absorption rate for New homes is edging up. New homes are at 6 months supply this month which is  one month better than 7 last year at this time. Last month though, shows 9 months of supply (Sect E p.3). The New homes for the most part have normal inventory levels in the 4-8 month range. The $400,000- $500,000 is at 9 months (66 homes) and  $700,000- $800,000 new inventory is at 12 months (6 homes). (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in September shows 8 months, two months better than 10 months last year. Used Active listings at 8,759 are lower than the 9,832 last year (Sect E p.3). The number of homes listed in the over $600,000 price range has been climbing somewhat faster than sales, resulting in some upward drift in the months of sales (generally over a year). The market performance is highly area specific, so check the area charts. For instance, Mountain Brook has about four months of inventory except in the over $900,000 category which has 10 months of inventory(35 homes) . The average days on market for that category is 106 indicating an aggressive market for properly priced homes..

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 200 compared to last month at 238.This indicates that some of the older stock of new homes are selling. The Used homes DOM was 130 in September, compared with 126 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in about 4  months.

Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $289,138 from $293,052 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales price for Sold Used homes increased to $178,589 from $175,152 last month (Sect A p2). The moving average price for Used Homes has been up steadily for the last year. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has also been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, New and Used, are improving  (Sect A p2).

TWB 10/14/13

2 thoughts on “September Birmingham Area Sales, Start Of A Strong Fall Season

  1. Jack Stevens

    Watch for the market to tick down somewhat as the new health care act removes discrecenary income from the middle class home buyer. The will have an effect on the economy as a whole.

    1. Tom Brander Post author

      Doubt it I think if anything the home situation will improve particularly in the states that have embraced the ACA, which of course is not AL… In general most are seeing reductions in cost.


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s