July Birmingham Residential Real Estate Sales Up 27% Year on Year

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for July 2013

Dollar sales in July declined modestly by 0.2% to $292,126,892 from June’s $292,627,167, up a healthy 27% from last July’s $229,375,674. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to move up indicating improving market conditions. This is quite encouraging as July normally declines as compared to June. This does indicate the potential for a strong fall sales season.

Birmingham Projections to  Actual July

Birmingham Projections to Actual July

Unit sales were up 3% to 1,417 in July from 1,378 in June, an increase of 184. This is up 17% from July 2012 at 1,212.This number will increase as late sales are reported. Our ABRE/ACRE Projections for 2013 projected 1,367 sales for July. For July, actual sales for the month were 4% higher than projections and 0.2% lower year to date. Please see here for a summary of the projections http://goo.gl/nytW8 and the spreadsheet with details and month by month projections by area http://goo.gl/GEYWa (see the tabs on the bottom). New sales increased by 8 units to 147 homes this month from 139 in June and are up by 26 from 121 last year. Used sales improved 3% to 1,270 homes in July from 1,239 last month, an increase of 31, and up by 179 units from 1,091 last year(Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 11% lower at 9,816 vs. 11,023 last year and 10,429 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. While we are seeing a seasonal uptick in inventory it is still lower than prior years. Active New listings decreased to 849 in July from 1,136 in June, a decline of 287 units (Sect E p.3).  Housing permits went down in Jefferson County to 68 for June from 87 in May. Shelby County permits went up to 46 from 19 (see website for details).

Absorption rate for New homes is fairly steady. New homes are at 7 months supply this month which is  the same last year at this time (Sect E p.3). The New homes for the most part have normal inventory levels in the 4-8 month range. The $700,000- $800,000 new inventory is at 12 months (4 homes). (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in July shows 8 months, two months better than 10 months last year. Used Active listings at 8,967 are lower than the 10,201 last year (Sect E p.3). The number of homes listed in the over $600,000 price range has been climbing somewhat faster than sales, resulting in some upward drift in the months of sales (generally over a year). The market performance is highly area specific, so check the area charts. For instance, Mountain Brook has about three months of inventory except in the over $900,000 category which has over a year of inventory.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 245 compared to last month at 174. The Used homes DOM was 130 in July, compared with 128 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months.

Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $281,459 from $293,565 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales price for Sold Used homes decreased to $197,443 from $303,246 last month (Sect A p2). The moving average price for Used Homes has been up steadily for the last year. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has also been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, New and Used, are improving  (Sect A p2).

TWB 8/10/13


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