July Alabama Coastal Sales UP 20% Year on Year

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of July 2013

Sales dollars improved 8% in July to $124,260,240 from June’s $114,883,928. This is 20% above July last year at $103,293,794. (Sect A p.2). A increase in July sales is somewhat unusual and may be a encouraging sign of a continuing improving market. The 12 month moving average line of sales has continued to point up steadily for three years now. Inventories are steadily trending down.

On a unit basis, sales of all houses were up 1% at 495 this month vs. last month at 489, which is up 29% from last year’s 383. In spite of the substantially improved sales climate, it is important to point out that the inventories of homes over $300,000 while improving from really bad levels, remain at over a 12 month supply.

Used Home sales improved 5% to 451 this month vs. 428 last month, which is up 18% from last year’s 383 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 44 this month vs 61 last month compared with 29 last year. Increasing sales of New Homes is indicative of a recovering market.

New listings for New homes decreased to 74 from 97 in June. Used homes New listings increased to 784 from 776 in June with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has once again been improving. In July, there were 3,597 Active Used homes, a reduction from 3,910 in June. The New home market, which peaked in July 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 363.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 9 months of inventory for July vs. 10 in June. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 10 months of inventory for July vs. 11 in June. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in July 2008 to 10 months this July. As I observe above though, the inventory for homes remains high.

Average sales price for all homes have been improving modestly for the past year. For New units, prices decreased to $218,380 from $258,086 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices increased to $254,216 from $231,637 in June. The price trend is up for the year.

Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in July was 186 this month vs. 90 last month. Days On Market for Used was 154 this month vs. 193 last month.

We see improvement in the second home market, which is needed for the coastal area to gain strength. While there is still a lot of inventory particularly in the upper price ranges, sales are continuing to improve. I think the situation on the coast has turned quite positive.

TWB 8/11/2013


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