Birmingham Junes Residential Real Estate Sales Soften

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for June 2013

Dollar sales in June declined by 4% to $287,893,427 from May’s $299,538,940, up a healthy 12% from last June’s $257,373,487. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to move up indicating improving market conditions. This is somewhat disappointing as June is normally the best sales month of the year. This does indicate moderating of an accelerating sales trend, which could avoid excessive speculation. The overall twelve month moving average is still on an upwards trend.

Birmingham June Projection to Actual

Birmingham June Projection to Actual

Unit sales were off 12% to 1,346 in June from 1,530 in May, a decrease of 184. This is off 1% from June 2012 at 1,365.This number will increase as late sales are reported. Our ABRE/ACRE Projections for 2013 projected 1,363 sales for June. For June, actual sales were 9% lower than projections and 2% lower year to date. Please see here for a summary of the projections and the spreadsheet with details and month by month projections by area (see the tabs on the bottom). New sales declined by 4 units to 136 homes this month from 140 in May and are off by 22 from 158 last year. Used sales declined 15% to 1,210 homes in June from 1,390 last month, a decrease of 180, and off 3 units from 1,207 last year(Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 14% lower at 9,419 vs. 10,993 last year and 10,122 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. Active New listings decreased to 785 in June from 1,098 in May, a decline of 313 units (Sect E p.3).  Housing permits went down in Jefferson County to 87 for May from 104 in April. Shelby County permits went down to 19 from 25 (see website for details).

Absorption rate for New homes is fairly steady. New homes are at 6 months supply this month which is  better than last year at this time at 7 months (Sect E p.3). The New homes up to $700,000 price range have normal inventory levels in the 5-8 month range, except for the $400,000-500,000 price range which is at 10 months of supply. The $700,000-$800,000 price range is at 10 months of supply. The over $900,000 new inventory is at 7 months (3 homes). (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in June shows 9 months, one month better than 10 months last year. Used Active listings at 8,634 are lower than the 10,131 last year (Sect E p.3). The number of homes listed in the over $400,000 price range has been climbing somewhat faster than sales, resulting in some upward drift in the months of sales (generally over a year). The market performance is highly area specific, so check the area charts.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 174 compared to last month at 180. The Used homes DOM was 128 in June, compared with 135 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months.

Average sales price for Sold New homes increased to $293,379 from $274,876 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales price for Sold Used homes increased to $204,954 from $187,810 last month (Sect A p2). The moving average price for Used Homes has been up steadily for the last year. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has also been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, New and Used, are improving  (Sect A p2).

TWB 7/13/13

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