Birmingham May Sales Very Strong and A Positive Outlook

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for May 2013

Dollar sales in May improved by 29% to $296,177,850 from April’s $230,177,850, up a healthy 31% from last May’s $226,665,171. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to move up indicating improving market conditions. We are in the main sales season and seeing impressive gains.

Birmingham May Projection to Actual

Birmingham May Projection to Actual

Increases in sales over our projections indicate a strengthening market. The greater increase in dollar sales than unit sales indicates an increase in the sales of higher end homes proportionally as well as a general strengthening in average prices.

Unit sales were up 14% to 1,504 in May from 1,315 in April, an increase of 189. This is up 16% from May 2012 at 1,294.This number will increase as late sales are reported. Our ABRE/ACRE Projections for 2013 projected 1,399 sales for May. For May, actual sales were 8% higher than projections and 0.2% for the year. Please see here for a summary of the projections and the spreadsheet with details and month by month projections by area (see the tabs on the bottom).  New sales improved by 5 units to 138 homes this month from 132 in April and are even with 138 last year. Used sales improved 15% to 1,366 homes in May from 1,183 last month, an increase of 183,  and up 18% and 210 units from 1,156 last year(Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 14% lower at 9,419 vs. 10,993 last year and 10,122 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. Active New listings decreased to 785 in May from 1,098 in April, a decline of 313 units (Sect E p.3).  Housing permits went down in Jefferson County to 104 for April from 115 in March. Shelby County permits went down to 25 from 37 (see website for details).

Absorption rate for New homes is fairly steady. New homes are at 6 months supply this month which is  better than last year at this time at 7 months (Sect E p.3). The New homes up to $700,000 price range have normal inventory levels in the 5-8 month range, except for the $400,000-500,000 price range which is at 10 months of supply. The $700,000-$800,000 price range are 14 months of supply. The over $900,000 new inventory is at 2 months (only one home). (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in May shows 8 months, one month better than 10 months last year. Used Active listings at 8,634 are lower than the 10,131 last year (Sect E p.3). The number of homes listed in the over $400,000 price range has been climbing somewhat faster than sales, resulting in some upward drift in the months of sales. The market performance is highly area specific, so check the area charts.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 180 compared to last month at 221. The Used homes DOM was 135 in May, compared with 135 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months.

Average sales price for Sold New homes increased to $277,308 from $248,111 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales price for Sold Used homes increased to $188,806 from $167,349 last month (Sect A p2). The moving average price for Used Homes has been moving up steadily since the beginning of the year. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has also been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, New and Used, are improving  (Sect A p2).

TWB 6/15/13


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