Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for June 2012
Sales in June improved 12% to $248,919,439 from May’s $222,870,833, up 13% from last June’s $220,590,225. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to be tilted upward.
Unit sales were up 3% to 1,313 in June from 1,272 in May, an increase of 41. This is up 4% from June 2011 at 1,262. This is 11% unfavorable to our projection of 1,483 sales expected for June and 9% unfavorable year to date. The complete monthly projections from ABRE (a joint project between ACRE and Brander Real Estate) can be found here http://goo.gl/WFHrO along with the worksheets that show the methodology. New sales improved 17% to 156 homes this month from 133 in May, an increase of 23 units. Used sales improved 2% to 1,157 homes in June from 1,139 last month, an increase of 18 (Sect E p.3).
This month total inventory is 21% lower at 10,132 vs. 12,794 last year and 10,930 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. Still, there is less of a seasonal increase in listings than last year. Active New listings decreased to 720 in June from 1,044 in May, a decline of 324 units (Sect E p.3). Housing permits went down for Jefferson County to 100 for May, down from 107 for April. Shelby County permits increased somewhat (see website for details).
Absorption rate for New and Used homes is improving. New homes are at 6 months supply this month with an improving sales pace, and better than last year at this time at 10 months (Sect E p.3). New home supply seems to be in a “normal” state. Under $100,000 New homes are at 10 months supply and improving. The New homes in the $100,000-$400,000 price range have normal inventory levels in the 6-7 month range. (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)
Absorption for Used homes in June shows 10 months, four months better than the 14 months last year. Used Active listings at 9,412 are lower than the 11,766 last year (Sect E p.3), (Sect E p.3).
Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses was 185 compared to last month at 215 . The Used homes DOM was 136 in June, compared with 149 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months. If the home is not selling, reduce the price, particularly since we are in the most active sales season of the year.
Average sales price for Sold New homes increased to $254,236 from $245,504 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes increased to $180,863 from $167,005 last month (Sect A p2). The twelve month moving average price line for Used Homes has been quite steady since mid 2009. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, new and used, have stabilized (Sect A p2). The price of any specific home still remains under pressure.
The differences between our numbers and the Board of MLS numbers are due to our taking in all the data in the MLS system while they report on a more concentrated area picked from the whole, so we have more of the surrounding rural areas, which are not showing as robust growth right now.