Year to Date Residential Sales On the Alabama Coast Surprisingly Strong


­­Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of September 2011 

Dollar sales this month decreased 15% to $75,465,744 from August’s $88,583,253. This is 25% above September last year at $60,594,052 when sales were impacted by the oil spill and the tax credit expiration (Sect A p.2). The 12 month moving average line of sales is quite clearly on an upwards tilt. Year to date sales are up 20% to $698,334,308 vs $584,097,053 last year. Unit sales are up 18% to 3,414 vs. 2,903 last year. On a 9 month basis only 2004 and 2005 exceeded this unit volume. While inventories are high, unit sales have recovered to normal levels. Dollar sales still lag reflecting fewer high end sales and lower prices. Given the inventory level it is unlikely that prices will see much recovery for a while.

For the last year, the twelve month moving average line of dollar sales is trending up. On a unit basis, sales of all houses declined 13% to 364 this month vs. 418 last month, which is 31% up from last year’s 277.

Used Home sales declined 15% to 331 this month vs. 390 last month, which is up 35% from last year’s 245 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 33 this month vs 28 last month. Low sales of New homes reflects intense competition from existing, and the shutdown of new construction.

New listings for New homes increased to 42 from 66 in August. Used houses New listings decreased to 526 from 683 in August with net inventory still down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has once again been improving. In September, there were 3,884 Active Used homes, a reduction from 4,391 in August. The New home market, which peaked in September 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 334.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 13 months of inventory for September vs. 14 in August. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 12 months of inventory for September vs. 14 in August. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in September 2008 to 12 months in September.

Average sales price for all homes has been stable for the past year. For New units, prices decreased to $179,069 from $298,172 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices increased to $210,140 from $205,729 in August.

Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in September was 188 this month vs. 303 last month. Days On Market for Used was 167 this month vs. 178 last month.

TWB 10/09/2011

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