July Alabama Coast Real Estate Sales Steady

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal Areas MLS*: Observations for the Month of July 2011

Dollar sales this month dropped 8% to $75,915,885 from June’s $82,835,113. This is 26% above July last year at $60,463,492 when sales were impacted by the oil spill and the tax credit expiration (Sect A p.2). The 12 month moving average line of sales is turning upwards.

The chart in Section A p.18 has been showing substantial inventory reduction for a year, but not so much from sales as people not listing properties. The reduction in Active listings will probably help the market somewhat. Inventories remain very high. Used inventory is now hovering about 4,000, a full 2,000 below August 2008, but the sales level has also shrunk dramatically. The number of Active listings continues to drop, which is positive (more below).

The 12 month moving average line of unit sales for Used homes had a pronounced upward slope through seven months ago. But with the spill, it had been showing a slight downward trend. Now once again, for the last several months, the line has begun to point up. On a unit basis, sales of all houses declined slightly, down 5% to 376 this month vs. 395 last month, which is 29% up from last year’s 292.

In the under $100,000 price range there has been an unusual pick up in activity over the last four months going from 60-80 sales per month to 100-110 per month. It almost appears that some entity is buying up these lower priced properties?

Used Home sales declined slightly, down 6% to 351 this month vs. 373 last month, which is up 31% from last year’s 267.(Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 25 this month vs 22 last month. The low number of sales of New homes reflects the intense competition from existing, and a virtual shutdown of new construction.

New listings for New homes increased to 51 from 42 in June. Used houses New listings decreased to 691 from 870 in June with net inventory still down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has once again been improving. In July, there were 4,116 Active Used homes, a reduction from 4,524 in June. The New home market, which peaked in July 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 331.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 12 months of inventory for July vs. 13 in June. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 13 months of inventory for July vs. 15 in June. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in July 2008 to 13 months in July. (Sect A p.17).

Average sales price for all homes has been stable for the past year. For New units, prices decreased to $211,221 from $243,712 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices decreased to $201,240 from $207,704 in June.

Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in July was 177 this month vs. 249 last month. Days On Market for Used was 185 this month vs. 170 last month.

TWB 8/13/2011


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