June Alabama Coastal Real Estate Sales Surprisingly Weak

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal Areas MLS*: Observations for the Month of June 2011

This month dollar sales dropped a surprising 8% to $81,135,713 from May’s $88,113,093. This is 24% above June last year at $65,207,636 when sales were impacted by the oil spill(Sect A p.2). The 12 month moving average line of sales is turning upwards.

The chart in Section A p.18 has been showing substantial inventory reduction for a year, but not so much from sales as people not listing properties. The reduction in Active listings will probably help the market somewhat. Inventories remain very high. Used inventory is now hovering about 4,000, a full 2,000 below August 2008, but the sales level has also shrunk dramatically. The number of Active listings continues to drop, which is positive (more below).

The 12 month moving average line of unit sales for Used homes had a pronounced upward slope through seven months ago. But with the spill, it had been showing a slight downward trend. Now once again, for the last several months, the line has begun to point up. On a unit basis, sales of all houses declined slightly, down 8% to 388 this month vs. 420 last month, which is 18% up from last year’s 328.

In the under $100,000 price range there has been an unusual pick up in activity over the last three months going from 60-80 sales per month to 100-110 per month. It almost appears that some entity is buying up these lower priced properties?

Used Home sales declined slightly, down 5% to 366 this month vs. 387 last month, which is up 24% from last year’s 296.(Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 22 this month vs 33 last month. The low number of sales of New homes reflects the intense competition from existing, and an extended slowdown of new construction.

New listings for New homes decreased to 44 from 45 in May. Used houses New listings increased to 849 from 728 in May ;(net inventory was still down).

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has once again been improving. In June, there were 4,071 Active Used homes, a 6% reduction from 4,342 in May. The New home market, which peaked in June 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 309.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 12 months of inventory for June vs. 12 in May. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 14 months of inventory for June vs. 13 in May. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in July 2008 to 12 months in June. (Sect A p.17).

Average sales price for all homes has been stable for the past year. For New units, prices increased to $243,712 from $208,387 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices decreased to $207,033 from $209,913 in May.

Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in June was 249 this month vs. 257 last month. Days On Market for Used was 170 this month vs. 184 last month.

TWB 7/10/2011


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