Cautious Sentiment Revealed in Real Estate Confidence Survey, According to UA Center


Real estate professionals in Alabama are a bit more favorable about their statewide market conditions when ask to compare versus its national  counterpart, but still show a continued state of caution from the previous quarter, according to the Alabama Real Estate Center at The University of Alabama’s Culverhouse College of Commerce.

The PDF is located here.

Over 500 Real Estate Professionals responded to the third quarterly survey during the last two weeks of June. The survey asked these professionals for their expectations for the third quarter of 2010.

The scale ranges from 0-100 with 0 being much worse, 100 being much better, and 50 indicating no change expected.

The overall (residential & commercial combined) confidence level was not significantly different from the survey results for the last quarter although the overall score has dropped each quarter. The statewide overall score dropped from 47 to 44 indicating a continued deterioration in expectations from the previous quarter. The expectations for the nation are ranked at 45, indicating that respondents expect real estate conditions nationally to continue to deteriorate modestly.

Expectations for Alabama are more positive than the national outlook at 49 which is still a 5 point decline from last quarter. The score indicates “modestly unfavorable expectations” for the overall Alabama Real Estate market.

3rd Quarter overall outlook

3rd Quarter overall outlook

Commercial market participants were also more dour in their outlook this quarter than last with results down 1 point.

Regional Results

North Region

North Alabama continues to have the highest overall scores, but at the same time continues to drift downward. The total score of 47 indicates a consensus for slight deterioration in coming quarter. The outlook for the Alabama market remains comparatively high at 56, but again this is a drop of 4 from the prior quarter, 60. Market participants are more pessimistic on the sales outlook for the 3rd quarter than they were for the 2nd at 53 this quarter vs. 62 last. This is still above the neutral rating of 50.

3rd Quarter Outlook Northern Region

3rd Quarter Outlook Northern Region

Where we do not have sufficient respondents to provide a good sample such as the “commercial categories” we indicate that with na.

North Central Region

The North Central Region is slightly more unfavorable than the North region. The overall score decreased from 48 last quarter to 45 this quarter. Most measures showed unfavorable movement. In particular the rural respondents see the market getting worse with both Residential and Commercial Sales as getting worse. As a consequence they also see pricing pressures at a low 35 for the coming quarter. Additionally the North Central participants see credit availability as being poor, and continuing to get tighter.

3rd Quarter North Central Outlook

3rd Quarter North Central Outlook

South Central Region

The South Central Region participants remain unfavorable regarding the national outlook. While there was a decline in the national outlook it now sits at 51 which is neutral. There was some slight improvement in credit expectations in the rural areas, an improvement of 8 points but still quite unfavorable at 31.

3rd Quarter South Central Outlook

3rd Quarter South Central Outlook

South Region

The Southern Region was more unfavorable in its outlook in most measures, undoubtedly due in large part to the oil spill impact. The overall statistics showed the largest drops of any area -8 for the quarter to 36, representing a quite unfavorable outlook. The respondents rated the national outlook at 43, only one point down from last quarter, but they ranked their own outlook 36 down 14 from last quarter. Sales expectations are down to 34 a 21 point drop from a fairly optimistic score of 55 last quarter. The more urban areas see it even worse at a score of 33 a drop of 24 from last quarter.

3rd Quarter Southern Region Outlook

3rd Quarter Southern Region Outlook

The inaugural ACRE Leadership Council determined the need for a statewide industry confidence index and this was adopted as the Council’s first initiative. Tom Brander, Council Member, was selected by the Council and Grayson Glaze, ACRE Executive Director, to spearhead and work with the Center to conduct and produce its Alabama Real Estate Confidence Index (ARECI). The Council appreciates everyone who participated and is excited to announce that Karen Spann with ReMax First Choice from Pelham is the winner of our drawing for the $200 gas card! Congratulations Karen!
For further information contact Tom Brander at Tombrander@tombrander.com or Grayson Glaze at gglaze@cba.ua.edu

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One thought on “Cautious Sentiment Revealed in Real Estate Confidence Survey, According to UA Center

  1. Pingback: Summary of Alabama Real Estate Outlook « Market Trends: Alabama Real Estate

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