Alabama Coastal Real Estate Sales Down 30% from Last Year

Baldwin County MLS* Observations for the month of June 2010: Real Estate Statistics for the Baldwin County, Alabama Coastal Areas:

The impact and fear from the gulf disaster has made itself felt even more in June 2010 than what we observed last month.

June sales dropped from May. Indeed this was the lowest June sales level on record. For the several months prior to the spill, the sales statistics had been showing signs of a bottom and even some signs of recovery. June sales dropped 17% to $60,319,319 from May’s $72,308,369. This is 30% below June last year $86,589,827 (Sect A p.2). As a result the 12 month moving average line of sales has once again hooked down. The inventory of Used homes remains at a high level. The sales results varied widely by area with the most coastal areas being hit quite hard, Point Clear sales levels looked pretty good.

Our chart in Section A p.18, shows the historical trends for absolute units of inventory and months of inventory for New and Used units. This chart continues to show flattening of inventory, which while still high, have recently leveled out.

The 12 month moving average line of unit sales for Used homes had a pronounced upward slope through last month. But this month shows the downward trend due to the size and counter cyclical nature of the sales drop. On a unit basis, sales of all houses declined to 307 vs. 364 last month, which is considerably worse than last year’s 355.

Used house unit sales were down at 282 from 319 last month. New home unit sales deteriorated to 25 from 45 last month (Sect A p.18). The low number of sales of new homes reflects the intense competition from existing, and an extended slowdown of new construction.

New listings for New homes increased to 53 in June from 41 in May, about double the number of sales. Used houses New listings decreased to 765 this month from 813 in May.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has once again started to level out, or even decline slightly. In June, there were 5,262 Active Used homes, a 5% reduction from 5,567 in May. The New home market which peaked in June 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 406.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 12 months of inventory for June vs. 13 in May.  The Absorption rate for Used houses was 18 months of inventory for June vs. 19 in May. (Sect A p.17).

Average sales price for New units decreased to $194,772 from $198,997 last month. Life is still very difficult for those trying to sell higher priced homes, and inventory continues to climb. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices decreased to $196,631 from $198,600 in May.

Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in June were 158 this month vs. 252 last month. Days On Market for used was 153 this month vs. 157 last month. (Note that we corrected a calculation for Days On Market so that these numbers are not directly comparable to prior reports.)

TWB 7/12/2010


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