Alabama Real Estate Confidence Index 2nd Quarter Forecast


The Alabama Real Estate Confidence Index survey results are presented below. A complete pdf is located here.  Please see the  Alabama Center For Real Estate site for more information about it’s activities in support of the Real Estate Industry statewide.

Summary

Over 380 Real Estate Professionals responded to the second quarterly survey during the last two weeks of March and the first two weeks of April. The survey asked these professionals for their expectations for the second quarter of 2010.

The overall (residential & commercial combined) confidence level were not significantly different from the survey results for the 1st quarter of 2010. The statewide overall score dropped from 49 to 47 indicating a slight deterioration from the previous quarter.

The expectations for the nation are ranked at 47, indicating that respondents expect real estate conditions nationally to continue to deteriorate modestly.

Expectations for Alabama are more positive at 54 which is still a 3 point decline from last quarter. The score indicates “modest expectations” for improvement in the overall Alabama Real Estate market.

The scale ranges from 0-100 with 0 being much worse, 100 being much better, and 50 indicating no change expected.

2nd Quarter overall - Table

2nd Quarter overall - Table

Commercial market participants were more positive this quarter than last with results up 7 points.

Regional Results

North Region

North Alabama has the highest overall scores, but at the same time also showed the largest shift downward. The total score of 50 indicates a consensus for no change in the coming quarter, but importantly this is a 4 point drop from a more positive outlook for the 1st quarter of 54. The outlook for the Alabama market remains comparatively high at 60, but again this is a drop of 6 from the prior quarter (66). However market participants are more positive on the sales outlook for the 2nd quarter than they were for the 1st at 62 this quarter vs. 61 last.

2nd Quarter North Region-table

2nd Quarter North Region-table

Commercial market participants, while still less optimistic than their residential counterparts, are getting generally more optimistic at least for sales, while the residential market participants are getting less so. Commercial participants see a lot more inventory available, and continue to see significant pricing pressure. Where we do not have sufficient respondents to provide a good sample such as the “rural commercial category’ we indicate that with na.

North Central Region

The North Central Region is slightly more negative than the North region but the trend is somewhat more favorable. The overall score increased from 47 last quarter to 48 this quarter.

Most measures showed positive movement with the notable exception of Inventory expectations. In particular the rural respondents see both Residential and Commercial Inventory as getting worse. As a consequence they also see pricing pressures at a low 38 for the coming quarter. Additionally the North Central participants see credit availability as being poor, and continuing to get tighter but not as negative as the prior quarter.

2nd Quarter North Central Region-table

2nd Quarter North Central Region-table

South Central Region

The South Central Region participants remain unfavorable regarding both the national and local outlook. The biggest swing was in the outlook for residential credit in the rural areas which dropped 16 points from 36 to 23.

2nd Quarter South Central Region-table

2nd Quarter South Central Region-table

South Region

The Southern Region was marginally more unfavorable in its outlook than the South Central region. The deterioration of the outlook is reflected in the drop in the overall score from 49 to 44 for the current quarter. The drops in scores was not very substantial (although pretty uniform), except in the rural areas where again the drop in credit availability expectations for Residential markets was quite pronounced, dropping 10 points from 41 to 31 which is the lowest of the 4 regions and the largest variance in quarter to quarter scores.

2nd Quarter South Region-table

2nd Quarter South Region-table

The inaugural ACRE Leadership Council determined the need for a statewide industry confidence index and this was adopted as the Council’s first initiative. Tom Brander, Council Member, was selected by the Council and Grayson Glaze, ACRE Executive Director, to spearhead and work with the Center to conduct and produce its Alabama Real Estate Confidence Index (ARECI). The Council appreciates everyone who participated and is excited to announce that Patricia Bridges from Tuscaloosa is the winner of the complimentary registration at this year’s AAR Summer Meeting at the Beau River Resort on June13th-16th.

For further information contact Tom Brander at Tombrander@tombrander.com or Grayson Glaze at gglaze@cba.ua.edu

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