Baldwin County Real Estate Holding Steady November 2009

Baldwin County MLS* Observations for the month of November 2009: Real Estate Statistics for the Baldwin County, Alabama Coastal Areas:

Sales in November were lackluster, dropping 6% to $54,601,780 from October’s $58,366,181 (Sect A p.2). I’d still say that the situation on the coast is showing signs of leveling out in spite of the last two month’s poor results. The 12 month moving average line of total dollar sales has “flattened” out, and is no longer pointing straight down but this last two months has made it look slightly sicker. The total number of active home listings continues to trend down. The inventory of used homes remains at a high level.  New construction has slowed dramatically, and is no longer adding to the glut. There are still big risks ahead but there is also the possibility that things won’t be getting a lot worse from here. ALL of the statistical improvement is related to lower priced homes. I wonder when or if we will begin to see trickle up from the lower priced properties to the higher priced ones!

  • Our new chart in Section A p.19, shows the historical tends for absolute units of inventory and in months of inventory for New and Used units. This chart shows that there is a pronounced drop in inventory levels, while still high, have a favorable trend.

Daphne/Montrose area and Orange Beach continue to show nice unit sales.

The 12 month moving average line of unit sales for Used homes has a slight upward slope. This is far better that the bottomless drop which has been the case for a while. On a unit basis, sales of all houses remained even at 281 vs. 282 last month. Used house unit sales were down, 247 vs. 258 last month. New house unit sales increased to 34 from 24 last month (Sect A p.18).

New listings for New houses decreased substantially to 33 in November from 83 in October. Used houses New listings decreased to 581 this month from 748 in October. These are some of the lowest numbers for new listings we have seen for the last 6 months.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market which had a slight peak mid-summer, has once again started to level out or even decline slightly. In November, there were 4,935 Active Used homes. The New house market which peaked in November 2006 at 2,144 active, now sits at 492. There were 4,935 Used Active houses in November, a 6% decrease from 5,258 in October.

The Absorption rate for new houses was 13 months of inventory for November vs. 13 in October. The Absorption rate for used houses was 19 months of inventory for November vs. 21 in October. (Sect A p.17).

Average sales price for New units decreased to $201,824 from $205,150 last month. Life is still very difficult for those trying to sell higher priced homes, and inventory continues to climb. See the tables for details. (Sect A p.14). The average used house price decreased to $193,278 from $207,142 in October.

TWB 12/13/2009


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