Baldwin County Sales Drop In October


Baldwin County MLS* Observations for the month of October 2009: Real Estate Statistics for the Baldwin County, Alabama Coastal Areas:

Sales in October were disappointing dropping 32% to $57,217,181 from September’s $83,775,515 (Sect A p.2). I’d still say that the situation on the coast is actually showing signs of leveling out in spite of this month’s poor results. The 12 month moving average line of total dollar sales has “flattened” out, and is no longer pointing straight down. Of the three areas we cover the coast is the only one to show this “flattening” of the downward curve.  The total number of active home listings has started to head down. The inventory of used homes remains at a high level.  New construction has slowed dramatically, and is no longer adding to the glut. There are still big risks ahead but there is also the possibility that things won’t be getting a lot worse from here.

  • See our new chart in Section A p.19 which shows the historical tends for absolute inventory in units and in months of inventory for New and Used units. We think it is quite useful.

Daphne/Montrose area and Orange Beach continue to show nice increases in unit sales.

The 12 month moving average line of unit sales for Used homes has a slight upward slope. This is far better that the bottomless drop which has been the case for a while. On a unit basis, sales of all houses declined by 24% to 277 vs. 363 last month. Used house unit sales were down, 253 vs. 315 last month. New house unit sales decreased to 24 from 48 last month (Sect A p.18).

New listings for New houses increased to 82 in October from 59 in September. Used houses New listings decreased to 740 this month from 756 in September. Sellers are frustrated, and are possibly relisting their homes with new agents. (See below).

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market which had a slight peak mid-summer, has once again started to level out or even decline slightly. In October, there were 4,963 Active Used homes. The New house market which peaked in October 2006 at 2,144 active, now sits at 491. There were 4,963 Used Active houses in October, a 7% decrease from 5,343 in September.

The Absorption rate for new houses was 12 months of inventory for October vs. 11 in September.  The Absorption rate for used houses was 20 months of inventory for October vs. 22 in September. (Sect A p.17).

Average sales price for New units decreased to $205,150 from $223,871 last month. Life is still very difficult for those trying to sell higher priced homes, and inventory continues to climb. See the tables for details. (Sect A p.14). The average used house price decreased to $206,694 from $231,840 in September.

TWB 11/14/2009

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