Calculated Risk: Housing Activity Forecast, New Vs. Existing


The single biggest question on most our readers’ minds is: Where is the housing market headed? I have  attempted to put thoughts to paper only to be overtaken by the constantly shifting market. One of my favorite fellow blog sites has come out with a very compete analysis. I’ve included the 1st part here so click over to Calculated Risk and take a read, you will be way better informed for doing so. It will also help to understand some of the stats I produce and how to interpret them, particularly the tension between the new and used housing sectors and their relationship.

Housing Activity Forecast
by CalculatedRisk on 4/19/2009 02:17:00 PM
Reuters is quoting Freddie Mac chief economist Frank Nothaft as saying that he believes U.S. housing sales are near a bottom. Nothaft also said about one-third of all sales were foreclosure resales.
I disagree with Nothaft’s forecast.
My view is:
# New home sales are at or near a bottom.
# Existing home sales will fall further.
Since there are far more existing home sales than new home sales, I expect that total sales activity will decline further.

Note: Please do not confuse a bottom in new home sales activity with a bottom in existing home prices. Please see: Housing: Two Bottoms

via Calculated Risk: Housing Activity Forecast.

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