This series of 4 posts contains the remarks I’m making at the annual lunch meeting, January 8, 2009 at the Club for the Greater Birmingham Association of Homebuilders. The main Rudulph/Brander Web site is at http://tomBrander.com. The blog is located directly at https://tbrander.wordpress.com. We offer two free newsletters, Local, and National for which you sign up for and you control. Watch to make sure you get a confirmation message and that it does not get stuck in the spam filter!!. Each month we provide summaries of each of our market areas, Birmingham, Huntsville, and Baldwin County. We occasionally update daily if there is news of import including credit market and policy updates.
Total number of homes sold monthly at the peak (2006-2007), using a 12 month rolling average basis about 1,750 per month in ’06 (Most of the year) dropping to about 1,250 a month today. That is a decline of 29%. However, using just the peak month, we see about a 66% drop from peak to current (about 2,225 mid ’06 to about 750 today Nov. ’08). This measure is particularly volatile but provides some useful understanding of just how extremely the situation can be portrayed. Used home sales dropped from about 1,250 a month to 750 a 40% drop (12 month basis) and 1,600 to 600 on a peak to trough basis 62% drop. New homes dropped from about 500 to about 275 (12 month basis) a 45% drop and on a peak to trough basis from 612 to 149 in Nov., a 75% reduction. Normal New home sales is about 350 a month.
Total dollar sales are worse, with a 12 month average peak of $340,000,000 now at $240,000,000 a 29% reduction. Peak to trough of $450,000,000 to $125,000,000 a 72% reduction overall (now at mid ’04 level). It is a 50% reduction from Nov ’07 levels.
Stacking the months to show seasonality we can see that the pattern is quite “broken” now at the 1999 levels. Earlier this year I was hoping we would hold at the 03-04 levels…now I hope we don’t do below the 1999 levels.
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