Average Prices Drop And So Does The Supply of New Homes

12 month Average sales prices in the Birmingham market are holding fairly well but I’m not sure that is good news. New and Used prices peaked in Dec ’06 at $192,000 but are now at $180,000 about a 6% drop. Used prices peaked in the same time period at $175,000 and now is at $165,000 a 6% drop. New prices peaked in May ’08 at $250,000 and is now at $245,000 a 2% drop. These numbers are based on 12 month moving averages so it is highly likely that the trend will be resulting in steeper drops as we go forward.

Peak to trough prices are much worse. But one should use caution with these figures since they can be very volatile for a host of reasons. Used Home prices, for instance peaked at $215,000 in about May 2007 and now sits at about $150,000 a 30% drop!! A lot of this however has to do with the complete absence of sales in the higher end. New Home prices peaked in November ’06 at $260,000 and now sits at $220,000, a 15% reduction. All of the above calculations use approximate figures from the chart, and approximate time frames rounded.

Birmingham '08 Average Sales Prices

Birmingham '08 Average Sales Prices

Inventory Used houses coming on the market are the “real” competition for new…The normal level of “active listings used to be about 6,000 and is now pushing 12,000, up to 11 Months of supply, and two to three years in the higher price ranges. New Home Active listings are somewhat better. The normal level previously about 2000 (in the ’02-’04 time frame),and now is about 2,488 which is 8-9 months of supply. New inventory peaked at 3,834 in Sept ’07. Total number of Active listings, is down about 11% from last year at this time. Some good news is that the Housing permit numbers for Jefferson County are down 66%, with only 36 issued in November 2008 as compared with 106 in November 2007. This would indicate that the New Home inventory should continue to come down. See the Census bureau link on my blog site.

November 2008 Birmingham Inventory

November 2008 Birmingham Inventory


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