Birmingham May Sales Very Strong and A Positive Outlook

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for May 2013

Dollar sales in May improved by 29% to $296,177,850 from April’s $230,177,850, up a healthy 31% from last May’s $226,665,171. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to move up indicating improving market conditions. We are in the main sales season and seeing impressive gains.

Birmingham May Projection to Actual

Increases in sales over our projections indicate a strengthening market. The greater increase in dollar sales than unit sales indicates an increase in the sales of higher end homes proportionally as well as a general strengthening in average prices.

Unit sales were up 14% to 1,504 in May from 1,315 in April, an increase of 189. This is up 16% from May 2012 at 1,294.This number will increase as late sales are reported. Our ABRE/ACRE Projections for 2013 projected 1,399 sales for May. For May, actual sales were 8% higher than projections and 0.2% for the year. Please see here for a summary of the projections http://goo.gl/nytW8 and the spreadsheet with details and month by month projections by area http://goo.gl/GEYWa (see the tabs on the bottom).  New sales improved by 5 units to 138 homes this month from 132 in April and are even with 138 last year. Used sales improved 15% to 1,366 homes in May from 1,183 last month, an increase of 183,  and up 18% and 210 units from 1,156 last year(Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 14% lower at 9,419 vs. 10,993 last year and 10,122 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. Active New listings decreased to 785 in May from 1,098 in April, a decline of 313 units (Sect E p.3).  Housing permits went down in Jefferson County to 104 for April from 115 in March. Shelby County permits went down to 25 from 37 (see website for details).

Absorption rate for New homes is fairly steady. New homes are at 6 months supply this month which is  better than last year at this time at 7 months (Sect E p.3). The New homes up to $700,000 price range have normal inventory levels in the 5-8 month range, except for the $400,000-500,000 price range which is at 10 months of supply. The $700,000-$800,000 price range are 14 months of supply. The over $900,000 new inventory is at 2 months (only one home). (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in May shows 8 months, one month better than 10 months last year. Used Active listings at 8,634 are lower than the 10,131 last year (Sect E p.3). The number of homes listed in the over $400,000 price range has been climbing somewhat faster than sales, resulting in some upward drift in the months of sales. The market performance is highly area specific, so check the area charts.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 180 compared to last month at 221. The Used homes DOM was 135 in May, compared with 135 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months.

Average sales price for Sold New homes increased to $277,308 from $248,111 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales price for Sold Used homes increased to $188,806 from $167,349 last month (Sect A p2). The moving average price for Used Homes has been moving up steadily since the beginning of the year. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has also been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, New and Used, are improving  (Sect A p2).

TWB 6/15/13

January Birmingham Residential Sales Up 14% from Last Year

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for January 2013

Sales in January declined by 21% to $132,100,460 from December’s $167,858,938, up a healthy 14% from last January’s $115,485,241. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to move up indicating improving market conditions. This is the middle of the slowest three months of the sales season, so it is best not to try to read too much into these results, although the year over year gains are meaningful.

Unit sales were down 14% to 824 in January from 963 in December, a decrease of 139. This is up 7% from January 2012 at 768. Our ABRE/ACRE Projections for 2013 are not yet complete but should be shortly and will be forwarded as soon as completed. The January results are roughly in line with what we expect from the preliminary work on the forecast. New sales declined by 44 units to 87 homes this month from 131 in December and are off from 91 last year. Used sales declined 12% to 737 homes in January from 832 last month, a decrease of 95,  but up 42 from 695 last year(Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 15% lower at 8,781 vs. 10,384 last year and 9,086 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. It is encouraging to see total inventory solidly below 10,000. Active New listings decreased to 782 in January from 953 in December, a decline of 171 units (Sect E p.3).  Housing permits went down in Jefferson County to 62 for December from 67 in November. Shelby County permits went down to to 17 from 23 (see website for details).

Absorption rate for New and Used homes is fairly steady. New homes are at 6 months supply this month which is  better than last year at this time at 8 months (Sect E p.3). New home supply last month shows 8 months. Under $100,000 New homes is at 10 months supply. The New homes in the $100,000-$700,000 price range have normal inventory levels in the 4-8 month range. Higher price ranges are one to two years of supply, although over $900,000 the new inventory is at 8 months (only two homes). (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in January shows 8 months, two months better than the 10 months last year. Used Active listings at 7,999 are lower than the 9,487 last year (Sect E p.3). Interestingly, the under $100,000 market with an average list price of $59,233, which makes up 33% of all listings, is at 7 months of inventory which drags down the overall months of inventory for all homes. There are fewer numbers of homes in the over $900,000 price range listed any time since early 2007, although months of inventory is still high due to reduced sales levels.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 201 compared to last month at 172. The Used homes DOM was 146 in January, compared with 141 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months.

Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $227,836 from $262,835 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes decreased to $152,346 from $160,370 last month (Sect A p2). The moving average price for Used Homes has been moving up steadily since the beginning of the year. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has also been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, New and Used, are improving  (Sect A p2). The price of any specific home still remains under pressure. Just a note: Average prices are up slightly from 2007 levels.

TWB 2/9/13

Birmingham December Sales Finish Well, Total Sales Up 8% For The Year

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for December 2012

For 2012 Unit sales increased 8% to 13,472 from 12,468 last and are off 7% from our full year projection of 14,550. Total dollar sales for the year were up 15% to $2,307,752,868 from $2,002,963,782.

Sales in December declined by 9% to $163,401,188 from November’s $179,368,554, up a healthy 12% from last December’s $146,269,023. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to move up indicating improving market conditions. This is the middle of the slowest three months of the sales season, so it is best not to try to read too much into these results.

Unit sales were down 10% to 941 in December from 1,048 in November, a decrease of 107. This is down 3% from December 2011 at 970. This is 14% unfavorable to our projection of 1,099 sales expected for December and 7% unfavorable year to date (this will improve as late sales are recorded). The complete monthly projections from ABRE, (a joint project between ACRE and Brander Real Estate) ,can be found here http://goo.gl/WFHrO along with the worksheets that show the methodology. New sales improved by one unit to 128 homes this month from 127 in November and off from 135 last year. Used sales declined 12% to 813 homes in December from 921 last month, a decrease of 108 (Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 16% lower at 8,519 vs. 10,174 last year and 9,943 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. It is encouraging to see total inventory below 10,000. Active New listings decreased to 736 in December from 997 in November, a decline of 261 units (Sect E p.3).  Housing permits went down in Jefferson County to 67 for November from 77 in October. Shelby County permits went down to to 23 from 28 (see website for details).

Absorption rate for New and Used homes is fairly steady. New homes are at 6 months supply this month which is  better than last year at this time at 7 months (Sect E p.3). New home supply last month shows 8 months. Under $100,000 New homes is at 14 months supply. The New homes in the $100,000-$700,000 price range have normal inventory levels in the 4-8 month range. Higher price ranges are one to two years of supply. although over $900,000 the new inventory is at 8 months (only two homes). (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in December shows 8 months, two months better than the 10 months last year. Used Active listings at 7,783 are lower than the 9,304 last year (Sect E p.3). Interestingly, the under $100,000 market with an average list price of $59,615, which makes up 33% of all listings, is at 7 months of inventory, which drags the overall months of inventory down for all homes. There are fewer homes in the over $900,000 price range listed since early 2007 although months of inventory is still high due to reduced sales levels.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 172 compared to last month at 201. The Used homes DOM was 141 in December, compared with 148 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months. If the home is not selling, reduce the price, particularly since we are in the slower sales season of the year.

Average sales price for Sold New homes increased to $262,386 from $233,626 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes decreased to $159,675 from $162,539 last month (Sect A p2). The average price for Used Homes has been moving up steadily since the beginning of the year. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has also been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, new and used, are improving  (Sect A p2). The price of any specific home still remains under pressure. Just a note: Average prices are up slightly from 2007 levels.
TWB 1/12/13

Birmingham Area Real Estate Sales in August Very Strong

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for August 2012

Sales in August improved 12% to $252,563,959 from July’s $226,145,943, up 25%!! from last August’s $202,434,570. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to be tilted upward. The last time we have seen a sales increase from July to August was in 2005 and 2006.

Unit sales were up 16% to 1,376 in August from 1,190 in July, an increase of 186. This is up 12% from August 2011 at 1,227. This is about .5% unfavorable to our projection of 1,384 sales expected for August and 8% unfavorable year to date. The complete monthly projections from ABRE, (a joint project between ACRE and Brander Real Estate) ,can be found here http://goo.gl/WFHrO along with the worksheets that show the methodology. New sales improved 14% to 136 homes this month from 119 in July, an increase of 17 units. Used sales improved 19% to 1,240 homes in August from 1,071 last month, an increase of 169 (Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 20% lower at 9,835 vs. 12,225 last year and 10,964 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. It is the 1st time in quite a while that total inventory is below 10,000. Active New listings decreased to 727 in August from 1,018 in July, a decline of 291 units (Sect E p.3). Note though, that new homes reached a low of 875 for sale in December and a high of 1,018 last month.  Housing permits went up for Jefferson County to 99 for July from 90 in June. Shelby County permits declined to 13 from 25 (see website for details).

Absorption rate for New and Used homes is deteriorating slightly. New homes are at 6 months supply this month with an improving sales pace, and better than last year at this time at 9 months (Sect E p.3). New home supply last month shows 8 months. Under $100,000 New homes are at 14 months supply and deteriorating. The New homes in the $100,000-$700,000 price range have normal inventory levels in the 4-6 month range. Higher price ranges ranges are one to two years of supply (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in August shows 9 months, four months better than the 13 months last year. Used Active listings at 9,108 are lower than the 11,222 last year (Sect E p.3), (Sect E p.3). Interestingly, the under $100,000 market with an average list price of $47,000, which makes up 31% of all listings, is at 7 months of inventory, which drags the overall months of inventory down for all homes.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses was 204 compared to last month at 212. The Used homes DOM was 138 in August, compared with 143 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months. If the home is not selling, reduce the price, particularly since we are moving into the slower sales season of the year.

Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $258,495 from $262,178 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes decreased to $175,330 from $182,023 last month (Sect A p2). The average price for Used Homes has been moving up steadily since the beginning of the year. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has also been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, new and used, are improving  (Sect A p2). The price of any specific home still remains under pressure. Just a note: the Average prices are up slightly from 2007 levels.

The differences between our numbers and the Board of MLS numbers are  due to our taking in all the data in the MLS system while they report on a more concentrated area picked from the whole; therefore we have more of the surrounding rural areas, which are not showing robust growth.

By: Tom Brander  9/15/12
Google

Birmingham March Residential Real Estate Sales Soft

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for March 2012

Sales in March improved 17% to $162,227,603 from February’s $139,164,184, down 1% from last March’s $164,121,105. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales is tilted upward.

Unit sales were up 15% to 1060 in March from 919 in February, an increase of 141. This is off 1% from March 2011 at 1,076. This is 21% unfavorable to our projection of 1,279 sales expected for March and 15% unfavorable year to date. The complete monthly projections from ABRE (a joint project between ACRE and Brander Real Estate) can be found here http://goo.gl/WFHrO (along with the worksheets that show the methodology). It is likely that the results will close in on projections as the spring unfolds. New sales declined 11% to 102 homes this month from 114 in February, a decrease of 12 units. Used sales improved 19% to 958 homes in March from 805 last month, an increase of 153 (Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is dramatically lower at 10,138 vs. 12,900 last year and 10,720 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. Active New listings decreased to 834 in March from 1,123 in February, a decline of 289 units (Sect E p.3).Housing permits showed an increase in Jefferson County to 95 in February from 79 in January. Shelby County was down to 15 from 20 (see website for details).

Absorption rate for New and Used homes is improving.New homes are at 7 months supply this month with a reduced sales pace, and about even with last year at this time at 8 months (Sect E p.3). New home supply seems to be stable. Under $100,000 New homes are at 20 months supply. The New homes in the $100,000-$400,000 price range have an almost normal inventory level in the 6-7 month range. (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in March shows 10 months, four months better than 14 months last year. Used Active listings at 9,304 are lower than the 11,754 last year (Sect E p.3), (Sect E p.3).

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses was 194 compared to last month at 208 . The Used homes DOM was 146 in March, compared with 153 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used Homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months. The high months of inventory indicates that sellers, including bank owners, are still holding out for higher prices. Again: If the home is not selling, reduce the price, particularly since we are in the more active sales season of the year.

Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $237,079 from $237,357 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes increased to $144,098 from $139,262 last month (Sect A p2). The twelve month moving average price line for Used Homes has been quite steady since mid 2009. Average Home prices, new and used, have stabilized  (Sect A p2). The price of any specific home still remains under pressure.

TWB 4/6/12

Birmingham Residential Year To Date Sales Off 3% From Last Year

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for September 2011

Sales in September declined 12% to $176,754,946 from August’s $200,691,237, up 9% from last September’s $162,426,387.  This month to month fluctuation is in line with the normal seasonal contraction without the distortion caused by the expiration of last year’s tax credit. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales remains tilted slightly upward. Year to date total $ sales were down 3% to $1,534,598,983 vs $1,580,081,340, and unit sales were off 4% to 9,450 vs 9,869 last year. This is a modest reduction considering the absence of major government actions such as the tax credit.

Total unit sales were down 9% to 1,101 in September from 1,214 in August, a decrease of 113. This is a 13% improvement from September 2010 at 973. New sales improved 6% to 139 homes this month from 131 in August, an increase of 8 units. Used sales declined 11% to 962 homes in September from 1,083 last month, a decrease of 121 (Sect E p.3).

This month Total Inventory is lower at 11,235 vs. 13,612 last year. Active New listings decreased to 925 in September from 1,216 in August, a decline of 291 units (Sect E p.3).For the second month, Housingpermits showed a big increase in Jefferson County to 140 in August from 117 in July. Shelby County was down to 16 from 19 (see website for details).

Absorption rate for New and Used homes last month remain high. New homes at  8 months supply this month and a reduced sales pace, is one month worse than last year at this time (Sect E p.3). The situation remains distressed. New home supply seems to be accumulating. Under $100,000 New homes are at 11 months supply. (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.) New home inventories in higher price ranges (above $400,000), remain excessive at over a year.

Absorption for Used homes in September 2011 shows 10,310 Used Active listings as a lower number than 12,365 last year (Sect E p.3), which is 12 months of supply, a bit better than 14 months last year (Sect E p.3). The listing activity is somewhat less than last year as is sales activity….

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses was 206 compared to last month at 199 . The Used homes DOM was 149 in September, compared with 149 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used Homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months. The high months of inventory indicates that sellers, including bank owners, are still holding out for higher prices. Newsflash: If the home is not selling, reduce the price, particularly since we are entering the slower sales season of the year.

Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $220,825 from $235,413 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes decreased to $151,830 from $156,835 last month (Sect A p2). The twelve month moving average price line for Used Homes has been quite steady since mid 2009 and is now showing an uptrend. Average Home prices, new and used, have stabilized and show an upward trend (Sect A p2). This is mostly a reflection in the change of “mix” with more larger homes being sold, but the price of any specific home remains under pressure.

TWB 10/08/11

Slow July Sales in the Birmingham Real Estate market

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for July 2011

Sales in July declined 7% to $202,737,155 from June’s $218,950,156, up 32% from last July’s $153,485,124.  This is a normal month to month fluctuation indicating a somewhat healthier market without the distortion caused by the expiration of last year’s tax credit.

Total unit sales were down 4% to 1,195 in July from 1,245 in June, a decrease of 50. This is a 24% reduction from July 2010 at 962. New sales improved 23% to 148 homes this month from 120 in June, an increase of 28 units. Used sales declined 7% to 1,047 homes in July from 1,125 last month, a decrease of 78 (Sect E p.3).

This month Total Inventory is lower at 12,043 vs. 14,279 last year. Active New listings decreased to 957 in July from 1,295 in June, a decline of 338 units (Sect E p.3).  Housing permits showed a increase in Jefferson County from 44 in May to 18 in June. Shelby County was up from 14 to 25 (see web site for details).

Absorption rate for New and Used homes last month reached new record highs of 11.5 and 14.5 months respectively. Last month presents a more accurate picture due to late closings and listings (that are not yet included in the current month statistics). See the chart (Sect C p.1).

New homes at a 8 months supply and a reduced sales pace, is one month better than last year at this time (Sect E p.3). The situation remains distressed. New home supply seem to be accumulating, and supply again stacking up. Strangely, under $100,000 New homes are at 15 months last month, and 9 this month, and those priced in the $100,000-$400,000 range have been climbing to 7 to 10 months (or more) of inventory, a deterioration from the last few months. (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.) New house inventories in higher price ranges (above $500,000), remain excessive at over a year.

Absorption for Used homes in July 2011 shows 11,086 Used Active listings as a lower number than 12,959 last year, (Sect E p.3) which is still at 13 months of supply, a bit better than 14 months last year (Sect E p.3). There is increased listing activity, and higher inventories as summer continues.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses was 222 compared to last month at 217. The Used homes DOM was 145 in July, compared with 147 last month (Sect A p.18). An interesting side note is that the DOM for Used Homes, except the $500,000- $600,000 range, is 180 days or less, which indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months. The high months of inventory indicates that sellers, including bank owners, are still holding out for higher prices, which is unlikely to be successful. Newsflash: If your home is not selling, reduce the price.

Average sales price for Sold New homes increased to $237,550 from $220,685 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes decreased to $160,057 from $171,083 last month (Sect A p2). The twelve month moving average price line for Used homes has been quite steady since mid 2009. New home prices have stabilized and show an upward trend (Sect A p2).

TWB 8/13/11

June Sales Advance 10% over May in Birmingham Area

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for June 2010

Total Dollar sales for the first 6 months of the year are running 3% above the comparable period last year, at $1,079,829,791 this year vs. $1,045,237,555 last year. Total unit sales for the first 6 months increased 6% to 6,831 this year from 6,426 last year.

Sales in June improved to $236,798,745, up 10% from May at $214,934,175. This is a decline of 2% from last June,  at  $241,580,127. I think and hope that with the expiration of the tax credit we are beginning to see the transition to more normal, non-incentivized sales with some evidence of a better market from an expanding economy. The twelve month moving average of total dollar sales chart remains fairly “flat”.

Total unit sales were about even with 1,346 in June from 1,368 in May, a decrease of 2. This is about the same as June 2009, at 1,341. New sales improved 20% to 247 homes this month from 206 in May, an increase of 41 units. Used sales deteriorated 4% to 1,099 homes in June from 1,142 last month, a decrease of 43 (Sect E p.3).

A somewhat larger than normal inventory increase in Used homes is evident. For this month total inventory is up .6% from last year at this time at 13,636 vs. 13,559. Active New listings decreased to 1,277 in June from 1,509 in May, a decline of 232 units (Sect E p.3). In May it appears that builders decreased permits. The number of housing permits has decreased considerably to 21 in May vs. 83 in the prior month for Jefferson County. Shelby County also declined substantially (See the web site for details). New inventory is now well below the 1,800 level which reflects more normal pre-2004 levels with 6.7 months supply at the reduced sales pace. In light of the heavy Used inventory, and low sales levels, I would not be in a rush to build! (Sect C p.1, (compare it to last month) and Sect E p.3).  It is somewhat distressing that a number of more affluent areas are getting a lot of new listings. Homewood, Area 230, is the most dramatic example, with used inventory now 393, which is very close to April’s all-time high of 402 Used homes, a 14 month supply.

For Used homes the months of inventory has begun to creep up, which is a concern. Absorption rate for New homes improved to 6.7 months of inventory, which is better than the 9.4 months last year at this time (Sect E p.3). New house inventories in the higher price ranges (above $500,000) remain excessive at over a year. That situation is getting worse as new listings come on, and sales are sluggish.

June 2010 shows 12,359 Used Active listings (Sect E p.3). Absorption for Used homes is at 13 months of supply. This is slightly worse than the 12.5 months of supply last year at this time (Sect E p.3). The higher price ranges are doing poorly, and deteriorating as new listings are adding to the oversupply. The market for houses requiring “Jumbo” loans remains stagnant.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses was 187 compared to last month at 206. The Used homes DOM was 142 in June, compared with 138 last month (Sect A p.18). (Note: we no longer attempt to subtract pending days from active as it was causing some very wild distortions)

Average sales price for Sold New homes increased to $219,004 from $200,104 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes increased to $166,246 from $152,104 last month (Sect A p2). The twelve month moving average price line for New homes is heading down, reflecting that most sales activity continues to be on the lower end of the market. But the average price for Used has begun to move up, slightly reflecting a bit of activity in the upper price ranges. (Sect A p2). It’s hard to read too much into average prices with the shifting mix.

TWB 7/11/10

May Birmingham Area Sales Drop After Tax Incentives Expire

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for May 2010

I use total dollar sales as an overall indicator for the market; it comes from my banking background, rather than unit sales. I was surprised and disappointed to see that for the 1^st time in ten years the total Dollar volume from April to May declined. Sales in May declined to $ 208,975,305 down 4% from April at $217,198,109. This is a decline of .5% from last May ($209,960,262). This reflected the impact of the termination of the tax credit at the end of April, although I would have expected more closing activity to be reported in May. Again the expectation for sales next month is to trend up (see the chart Sec A p.4), but with the expiration of the tax credit, and the transition to more normal, non-incentivized sales the prospects rest both on the seasonal factors as well as hopefully, the improving economy. The twelve month moving average line of total dollar sales chart remains fairly “flat”.

Total unit sales declined by 4% to 1,308 in May from 1,364 in April, a decrease of 56. This is a 9% improvement from May 2009 (1,203). New sales improved 2% to 202 homes this month from 198 in April, an increase of 4 units. Used sales deteriorated 5% to 1,106 homes in May from 1,266 last month, a decrease of 160 (Sect E p.3).

A somewhat larger than normal inventory increase in both New and Used homes is underway. For this month total inventory is down 2% from last year at this time at 13,327 vs. 13,587. Active New listings decreased to 1,297 in May from 1,642 in April, a decline of 345 units (Sect E p.3). In April it appears that builders decreased permits. The number of housing permits has decreased somewhat to 83 in April vs. 91 in the prior month for Jefferson County. Shelby County also declined modestly (See the web site for details). New inventory is now below the 1,800 level which reflects more normal pre-2004 levels, approaching a more normal level, now 6.9 months supply at the reduced sales pace. In light of the heavy Used inventory, and low sales levels, I would not be in a rush to build! (Sect C p.1, (compare it to last month) and Sect E p.3).  It is somewhat distressing that a number of more affluent areas are getting a lot of new listings. Homewood, Area 230, is the most dramatic example, with used inventory now 395, very close to last month’s all-time high of 402 Used homes, a 14 month supply.

For Used homes the months of inventory has begun to creep up, which is a concern. Absorption rate for New homes improved to 6.9 months of inventory, which is better than the 9.4 months last year at this time (Sect E p.3). New house inventories in the higher price ranges (above $500,000) remain excessive at over a year. That situation is getting worse as new listings come on, and sales are sluggish.

May 2010 shows 12,030 Used Active listings (Sect E p.3). Absorption for Used homes is at 12.6 months of supply. This is slightly worse than the 12.4 months of supply last year at this time (Sect E p.3). The higher price ranges are doing poorly and deteriorating as new listings are adding to the oversupply. The market for houses requiring “Jumbo” loans remains stagnant.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses was 206 compared to last month at 232. The Used house DOM was 138 in May compared with 139 last month (Sect A p.18). (Note: we no longer attempt to subtract pending days from active as it was causing some very wild distortions)

Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $198,459 from $201,264 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes increased to $152,700 from $152,099 last month (Sect A p2). The twelve month moving average price line for New homes is heading down, reflecting that most sales activity continues to be on the lower end of the market. But the average price for Used has begun to move up, slightly reflecting a bit of activity in the upper price ranges. (Sect A p2). It’s hard to read too much into average prices with the shifting mix.

TWB 6/13/10

Shelby County tax roll shows property value drop for first time in years (with searchable database) | al.com

A good article on the recent tax revaluation in Shelby county, Alabama Click though for the whole article and some good background and analysis.

By Veronica Kennedy — The Birmingham News and Jeff Hansen — The Birmingham News But real estate agents in Shelby County acknowledge that sale prices dropped overall last year. And Tom Brander, a real estate analyst and publisher of the Rudulph-Brander Report, thinks the county’s revaluation understates the degree that home prices have dropped.

“What I’ve seen over the last year is about a 6 percent reduction in price,” he said. “The county is setting itself up to deal with a lot of protests, because the reductions are probably more” than the 1.4 percent average the county found.

Brander said the higher-priced home market is especially distressed.

via Shelby County tax roll shows property value drop for first time in years (with searchable database) | al.com.