January Birmingham Residential Sales Up 14% from Last Year

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for January 2013

Sales in January declined by 21% to $132,100,460 from December’s $167,858,938, up a healthy 14% from last January’s $115,485,241. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to move up indicating improving market conditions. This is the middle of the slowest three months of the sales season, so it is best not to try to read too much into these results, although the year over year gains are meaningful.

Unit sales were down 14% to 824 in January from 963 in December, a decrease of 139. This is up 7% from January 2012 at 768. Our ABRE/ACRE Projections for 2013 are not yet complete but should be shortly and will be forwarded as soon as completed. The January results are roughly in line with what we expect from the preliminary work on the forecast. New sales declined by 44 units to 87 homes this month from 131 in December and are off from 91 last year. Used sales declined 12% to 737 homes in January from 832 last month, a decrease of 95,  but up 42 from 695 last year(Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 15% lower at 8,781 vs. 10,384 last year and 9,086 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. It is encouraging to see total inventory solidly below 10,000. Active New listings decreased to 782 in January from 953 in December, a decline of 171 units (Sect E p.3).  Housing permits went down in Jefferson County to 62 for December from 67 in November. Shelby County permits went down to to 17 from 23 (see website for details).

Absorption rate for New and Used homes is fairly steady. New homes are at 6 months supply this month which is  better than last year at this time at 8 months (Sect E p.3). New home supply last month shows 8 months. Under $100,000 New homes is at 10 months supply. The New homes in the $100,000-$700,000 price range have normal inventory levels in the 4-8 month range. Higher price ranges are one to two years of supply, although over $900,000 the new inventory is at 8 months (only two homes). (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in January shows 8 months, two months better than the 10 months last year. Used Active listings at 7,999 are lower than the 9,487 last year (Sect E p.3). Interestingly, the under $100,000 market with an average list price of $59,233, which makes up 33% of all listings, is at 7 months of inventory which drags down the overall months of inventory for all homes. There are fewer numbers of homes in the over $900,000 price range listed any time since early 2007, although months of inventory is still high due to reduced sales levels.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 201 compared to last month at 172. The Used homes DOM was 146 in January, compared with 141 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months.

Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $227,836 from $262,835 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes decreased to $152,346 from $160,370 last month (Sect A p2). The moving average price for Used Homes has been moving up steadily since the beginning of the year. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has also been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, New and Used, are improving  (Sect A p2). The price of any specific home still remains under pressure. Just a note: Average prices are up slightly from 2007 levels.

TWB 2/9/13

Birmingham December Sales Finish Well, Total Sales Up 8% For The Year

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for December 2012

For 2012 Unit sales increased 8% to 13,472 from 12,468 last and are off 7% from our full year projection of 14,550. Total dollar sales for the year were up 15% to $2,307,752,868 from $2,002,963,782.

Sales in December declined by 9% to $163,401,188 from November’s $179,368,554, up a healthy 12% from last December’s $146,269,023. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to move up indicating improving market conditions. This is the middle of the slowest three months of the sales season, so it is best not to try to read too much into these results.

Unit sales were down 10% to 941 in December from 1,048 in November, a decrease of 107. This is down 3% from December 2011 at 970. This is 14% unfavorable to our projection of 1,099 sales expected for December and 7% unfavorable year to date (this will improve as late sales are recorded). The complete monthly projections from ABRE, (a joint project between ACRE and Brander Real Estate) ,can be found here http://goo.gl/WFHrO along with the worksheets that show the methodology. New sales improved by one unit to 128 homes this month from 127 in November and off from 135 last year. Used sales declined 12% to 813 homes in December from 921 last month, a decrease of 108 (Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 16% lower at 8,519 vs. 10,174 last year and 9,943 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. It is encouraging to see total inventory below 10,000. Active New listings decreased to 736 in December from 997 in November, a decline of 261 units (Sect E p.3).  Housing permits went down in Jefferson County to 67 for November from 77 in October. Shelby County permits went down to to 23 from 28 (see website for details).

Absorption rate for New and Used homes is fairly steady. New homes are at 6 months supply this month which is  better than last year at this time at 7 months (Sect E p.3). New home supply last month shows 8 months. Under $100,000 New homes is at 14 months supply. The New homes in the $100,000-$700,000 price range have normal inventory levels in the 4-8 month range. Higher price ranges are one to two years of supply. although over $900,000 the new inventory is at 8 months (only two homes). (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in December shows 8 months, two months better than the 10 months last year. Used Active listings at 7,783 are lower than the 9,304 last year (Sect E p.3). Interestingly, the under $100,000 market with an average list price of $59,615, which makes up 33% of all listings, is at 7 months of inventory, which drags the overall months of inventory down for all homes. There are fewer homes in the over $900,000 price range listed since early 2007 although months of inventory is still high due to reduced sales levels.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 172 compared to last month at 201. The Used homes DOM was 141 in December, compared with 148 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months. If the home is not selling, reduce the price, particularly since we are in the slower sales season of the year.

Average sales price for Sold New homes increased to $262,386 from $233,626 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes decreased to $159,675 from $162,539 last month (Sect A p2). The average price for Used Homes has been moving up steadily since the beginning of the year. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has also been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, new and used, are improving  (Sect A p2). The price of any specific home still remains under pressure. Just a note: Average prices are up slightly from 2007 levels.
TWB 1/12/13

Birmingham Area Real Estate Sales in August Very Strong

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for August 2012

Sales in August improved 12% to $252,563,959 from July’s $226,145,943, up 25%!! from last August’s $202,434,570. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to be tilted upward. The last time we have seen a sales increase from July to August was in 2005 and 2006.

Unit sales were up 16% to 1,376 in August from 1,190 in July, an increase of 186. This is up 12% from August 2011 at 1,227. This is about .5% unfavorable to our projection of 1,384 sales expected for August and 8% unfavorable year to date. The complete monthly projections from ABRE, (a joint project between ACRE and Brander Real Estate) ,can be found here http://goo.gl/WFHrO along with the worksheets that show the methodology. New sales improved 14% to 136 homes this month from 119 in July, an increase of 17 units. Used sales improved 19% to 1,240 homes in August from 1,071 last month, an increase of 169 (Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 20% lower at 9,835 vs. 12,225 last year and 10,964 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. It is the 1st time in quite a while that total inventory is below 10,000. Active New listings decreased to 727 in August from 1,018 in July, a decline of 291 units (Sect E p.3). Note though, that new homes reached a low of 875 for sale in December and a high of 1,018 last month.  Housing permits went up for Jefferson County to 99 for July from 90 in June. Shelby County permits declined to 13 from 25 (see website for details).

Absorption rate for New and Used homes is deteriorating slightly. New homes are at 6 months supply this month with an improving sales pace, and better than last year at this time at 9 months (Sect E p.3). New home supply last month shows 8 months. Under $100,000 New homes are at 14 months supply and deteriorating. The New homes in the $100,000-$700,000 price range have normal inventory levels in the 4-6 month range. Higher price ranges ranges are one to two years of supply (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in August shows 9 months, four months better than the 13 months last year. Used Active listings at 9,108 are lower than the 11,222 last year (Sect E p.3), (Sect E p.3). Interestingly, the under $100,000 market with an average list price of $47,000, which makes up 31% of all listings, is at 7 months of inventory, which drags the overall months of inventory down for all homes.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses was 204 compared to last month at 212. The Used homes DOM was 138 in August, compared with 143 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months. If the home is not selling, reduce the price, particularly since we are moving into the slower sales season of the year.

Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $258,495 from $262,178 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes decreased to $175,330 from $182,023 last month (Sect A p2). The average price for Used Homes has been moving up steadily since the beginning of the year. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has also been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, new and used, are improving  (Sect A p2). The price of any specific home still remains under pressure. Just a note: the Average prices are up slightly from 2007 levels.

The differences between our numbers and the Board of MLS numbers are  due to our taking in all the data in the MLS system while they report on a more concentrated area picked from the whole; therefore we have more of the surrounding rural areas, which are not showing robust growth.

By: Tom Brander  9/15/12
Google

Birmingham Real Estate Sales In May Continue To Improve

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for May 2012

Sales in May improved 11% to $215,887,628 from April’s $194,180,473, up 13% from last May’s $190,671,097. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to be tilted upward nicely.

Unit sales were up 2% to 1,232 in May from 1,207 in April, an increase of 25. This is up 11% from May 2011 at 1,110. This is 9% unfavorable to our projection of 1,395 sales expected for May and 12% unfavorable year to date. The complete monthly projections from ABRE (a joint project between ACRE and Brander Real Estate) can be found here http://goo.gl/WFHrO along with the worksheets that show the methodology. New sales improved 16% to 130 homes this month from 112 in April, an increase of 18 units. Used sales improved 0.6% to 1,102 homes in May from 1,095 last month, an increase of 7 (Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 28% lower at 10,212 vs. 13,035 last year and 10,908 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. Still, there is less of a seasonal increase in listings than last year. Active New listings decreased to 757 in May from 1,088 in April, a decline of 331 units (Sect E p.3). Housing permits went down for Jefferson county to 107 for April up from 120 for March. (see website for details).

Absorption rate for New and Used homes is improving. New homes are at 6 months supply this month with a reduced sales pace, and better than last year at this time at 9 months (Sect E p.3). New home supply seems to be in a “normal” state. Under $100,000 New homes are at 11 months supply and improving. The New homes in the $100,000-$400,000 price range have normal inventory levels in the 6-7 month range. (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in May shows 10 months, four months better than 14 months last year. Used Active listings at 9,455 are lower than the 11,906 last year (Sect E p.3), (Sect E p.3).

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses was 215 compared to last month at 233 . The Used homes DOM was 149 in May, compared with 136 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used Homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months. If the home is not selling, reduce the price, particularly since we are in the most active sales season of the year.

Average sales price for Sold New homes increased to $247,801 from $225,573 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes increased to $166,673 from $154,261 last month (Sect A p2). The twelve month moving average price line for Used Homes has been quite steady since mid 2009. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, new and used, have stabilized  (Sect A p2). The price of any specific home still remains under pressure.

TWB 6/9/12

Birmingham March Residential Real Estate Sales Soft

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for March 2012

Sales in March improved 17% to $162,227,603 from February’s $139,164,184, down 1% from last March’s $164,121,105. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales is tilted upward.

Unit sales were up 15% to 1060 in March from 919 in February, an increase of 141. This is off 1% from March 2011 at 1,076. This is 21% unfavorable to our projection of 1,279 sales expected for March and 15% unfavorable year to date. The complete monthly projections from ABRE (a joint project between ACRE and Brander Real Estate) can be found here http://goo.gl/WFHrO (along with the worksheets that show the methodology). It is likely that the results will close in on projections as the spring unfolds. New sales declined 11% to 102 homes this month from 114 in February, a decrease of 12 units. Used sales improved 19% to 958 homes in March from 805 last month, an increase of 153 (Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is dramatically lower at 10,138 vs. 12,900 last year and 10,720 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. Active New listings decreased to 834 in March from 1,123 in February, a decline of 289 units (Sect E p.3).Housing permits showed an increase in Jefferson County to 95 in February from 79 in January. Shelby County was down to 15 from 20 (see website for details).

Absorption rate for New and Used homes is improving.New homes are at 7 months supply this month with a reduced sales pace, and about even with last year at this time at 8 months (Sect E p.3). New home supply seems to be stable. Under $100,000 New homes are at 20 months supply. The New homes in the $100,000-$400,000 price range have an almost normal inventory level in the 6-7 month range. (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in March shows 10 months, four months better than 14 months last year. Used Active listings at 9,304 are lower than the 11,754 last year (Sect E p.3), (Sect E p.3).

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses was 194 compared to last month at 208 . The Used homes DOM was 146 in March, compared with 153 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used Homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months. The high months of inventory indicates that sellers, including bank owners, are still holding out for higher prices. Again: If the home is not selling, reduce the price, particularly since we are in the more active sales season of the year.

Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $237,079 from $237,357 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes increased to $144,098 from $139,262 last month (Sect A p2). The twelve month moving average price line for Used Homes has been quite steady since mid 2009. Average Home prices, new and used, have stabilized  (Sect A p2). The price of any specific home still remains under pressure.

TWB 4/6/12

Slow July Sales in the Birmingham Real Estate market

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for July 2011

Sales in July declined 7% to $202,737,155 from June’s $218,950,156, up 32% from last July’s $153,485,124.  This is a normal month to month fluctuation indicating a somewhat healthier market without the distortion caused by the expiration of last year’s tax credit.

Total unit sales were down 4% to 1,195 in July from 1,245 in June, a decrease of 50. This is a 24% reduction from July 2010 at 962. New sales improved 23% to 148 homes this month from 120 in June, an increase of 28 units. Used sales declined 7% to 1,047 homes in July from 1,125 last month, a decrease of 78 (Sect E p.3).

This month Total Inventory is lower at 12,043 vs. 14,279 last year. Active New listings decreased to 957 in July from 1,295 in June, a decline of 338 units (Sect E p.3).  Housing permits showed a increase in Jefferson County from 44 in May to 18 in June. Shelby County was up from 14 to 25 (see web site for details).

Absorption rate for New and Used homes last month reached new record highs of 11.5 and 14.5 months respectively. Last month presents a more accurate picture due to late closings and listings (that are not yet included in the current month statistics). See the chart (Sect C p.1).

New homes at a 8 months supply and a reduced sales pace, is one month better than last year at this time (Sect E p.3). The situation remains distressed. New home supply seem to be accumulating, and supply again stacking up. Strangely, under $100,000 New homes are at 15 months last month, and 9 this month, and those priced in the $100,000-$400,000 range have been climbing to 7 to 10 months (or more) of inventory, a deterioration from the last few months. (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.) New house inventories in higher price ranges (above $500,000), remain excessive at over a year.

Absorption for Used homes in July 2011 shows 11,086 Used Active listings as a lower number than 12,959 last year, (Sect E p.3) which is still at 13 months of supply, a bit better than 14 months last year (Sect E p.3). There is increased listing activity, and higher inventories as summer continues.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses was 222 compared to last month at 217. The Used homes DOM was 145 in July, compared with 147 last month (Sect A p.18). An interesting side note is that the DOM for Used Homes, except the $500,000- $600,000 range, is 180 days or less, which indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months. The high months of inventory indicates that sellers, including bank owners, are still holding out for higher prices, which is unlikely to be successful. Newsflash: If your home is not selling, reduce the price.

Average sales price for Sold New homes increased to $237,550 from $220,685 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes decreased to $160,057 from $171,083 last month (Sect A p2). The twelve month moving average price line for Used homes has been quite steady since mid 2009. New home prices have stabilized and show an upward trend (Sect A p2).

TWB 8/13/11

Birmingham May Real Estate Sales Still Weak – Inventory Building

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for May 2011

Sales in May improved 17% to $182,960,952 from April’s $156,532,879, but down 16% from last May’s $219,048,541.  While the comparison to last year is disappointing, this is a more normal month to month fluctuation which indicates a healthier market without the distortion of last years tax credit.

Birmingham May 2011 Absorption

Total unit sales were up 5% to 1,054 in May from 1,004 in April, an increase of 50. This is a 23% reduction from May 2010 at 1,372. New sales improved 11% to 111 homes this month from 100 in April, an increase of 11 units. Used sales improved 4% to 943 homes in May from 904 last month, an increase of 39 (Sect E p.3).

This month Total Inventory is somewhat lower at 12,478 vs. 16,905 last year. Active New listings decreased to 1,054 in May from 1,272 in April, a decline of 218 units (Sect E p.3).  Housingpermits showed a decrease in Jefferson County from 62 in March to 40 in April.

Absorption rate for New and Used homes last month reached new highs of 9.6 and 14.1 months respectively. Last month presents a more accurate picture due to late closings and listings (that are not yet included in the current month statistics). Please see the chart (Sect C p.1).

New homes at a 8 months supply and a reduced sales pace, is one month worse than last year at this time (Sect E p.3). The situation remains distressed. New home supply seem to be accumulating, and supply again stacking up. Strangely, under $100,000 New homes are at 15 months of sales, while those priced from $100,000-$400,000 range from 6 to 9 months of inventory, a pretty “normal” situation in such abnormal times.. (Sect C p.1 compare to last month and Sect E p.3.) New house inventories in higher price ranges (above $500,000), remain excessive at over a year.

Absorption for Used homes in May 2011 shows 11,424 Used Active listings as a lower number than 12,491 last year, (Sect E p.3) which is still at14 months of supply, a bit worse than 13 months last year which was at a reduced sales level (Sect E p.3). There are indications of increased listing activity, and a trend towards higher inventories as summer arrives.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses was 202 compared to last month at 221. The Used homes DOM was 146 in May, compared with 142 last month (Sect A p.18). An interesting side note is that the DOM for used homes under $600,000 is 180 days or less which indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months. The high months of inventory indicates that sellers, including bank owners, may still be holding out too much for higher prices.

Average sales price for Sold New homes increased to $210,389 from $205,685 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes increased to $169,255 from $150,403 last month and increased from $152,078 last year (Sect A p2). The twelve month moving average price line for Used homes has been quite steady since mid 2009. New homes prices have stabilized and even showed an upwards trend (Sect A p2).

TWB 6/11/11

Birmingham Real Estate Sales Off To Slow Start In The New Year

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for January 2011

Sales in January declined 25% to $96,431,926 from December’s $128,898,461, down 13% from last January’s $110,758,827.  This was the worst monthly showing that we have on record. But then, January has always been the weakest month of the year. So, I would not read too much into any of the numbers this month.

Total unit sales were down 26% to 636 in January from 856 in December, a decrease of 220. This is a 12% reduction from January 2010 at 723. New sales declined 30% to 78 homes this month from 112 in December, a decrease of 34 units. Used sales declined 25% to 558 homes in January from 744 last month, a decrease of 186 (Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is virtually the same at 11,636  vs. 11,926 last year. Active New listings decreased to 1,087 in January from 1,205 in December, a decline of 118 units (Sect E p.3). The number of housing permits this month was unchanged at 35 in December for Jefferson County. Shelby County was up from 3 to 19. (See the website for details).

Absorption rate for New homes at a 7 months supply and a reduced sales pace, is better than the 8 months last year at this time (Sect E p.3). While the situation is still  distressed, New homes seem to be selling, and supply is keeping in balance. Strangely, under $100,000 New homes are at 16.8 months of sales, while those priced from $200,000-$500,000 range from 5.3 to 6.3 months of inventory, a pretty “normal” situation in such abnormal times.. (Sect C p.1 compare to last month and Sect E p.3.) New house inventories in higher price ranges (above $500,000) remain excessive at over a year.

Inventory shows a modest continuing seasonal decline for Used homes. Absorption for Used homes in January 2010 shows 10,549 Used Active listings (Sect E p.3) and 12 months of supply, the same as last year at this time (Sect E p.3). Since May 2010 the number of Used Active listings has dropped by almost 2,000! Unfortunately, the drop has been due more to cancellations than sales, but it is still positive news. It is also important to note that much of the decline is seasonal as sellers wait out the slow winter months. The higher price ranges are troubled, but hopefully showing some signs of stability as New listings moderate.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses was 228 compared to last month at 194. The Used homes DOM was 152 in January, compared with 143 last month (Sect A p.18).

Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $200,759 from $205,493 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes increased to $144,754 from $142,316 last month (Sect A p2). The twelve month moving average price line for both New and Used homes has been trending up, but now has a downward hook at the end. (Sect A p2).

TWB 2/13/11

Birmingham Area Home Sales Slow in October

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for October 2010

Image via Wikipedia

Sales in October dropped 25% to $120,783,955 from September’s $160,333,587. This is a decline of 32% from last October’s $178,100,683. An increasing percentage of sales are being reported after the 10th of the month when we get the data, so the comparisons to prior periods seem somewhat overstated; that is, next month we are likely to see more sales reported for the October time frame ,making the comparisons seem somewhat better. The housing situation is still pretty distressing with the twelve month moving average of total dollar sales chart continuing to show a downward slope.

Total unit sales were down 25% at 714 in October from 953 in September, a decrease of 239. This is a 39% reduction from October 2009 at 1,177 (for those who follow, this is almost identical to the % drop reported by the MLS). New sales declined 30% to 111 homes this month from 159 in September, a decrease of 48 units. Used sales deteriorated 24% to 603 homes in October from 794 last month, a decrease of 191 (Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is virtually the same as last year at 12,764 vs. 12,808. Active New listings decreased to 1,152 in October from 1,327 in September, a decline of 175 units (Sect E p.3). The number of housing permits this month has decreased to 23 in September vs. 44 in the prior month for Jefferson County. Shelby County showed a slight increase. (See the website for details).

Absorption rate for New homes at a  6.8 months supply and a reduced sales pace, is better than the 8.9 months last year at this time (Sect E p.3). While the situation is still  distressed, New homes seem to be selling and supply is keeping in balance. Strangely, under $100,000 New homes are at 17.7 months of sales, while those priced from $100,000-$500,000 range from 5.4 to 6.6 months of inventory, a pretty “normal” situation in such abnormal times.. (Sect C p.1 compare to last month and Sect E p.3.) New house inventories in higher price ranges (above $500,000) remain excessive at over a year. This situation has been grim for some time.

Inventory shows a modest decline for Used homes. Absorption for Used homes in October 2010 shows 11,612 Used Active listings (Sect E p.3) and 13.2 months of supply. This is slightly worse than the 12.4 months of supply last year at this time (Sect E p.3). Since May the number of Used Active listings has dropped by more that 1,000! Unfortunately, the drop has been due more to cancellations than sales, but it is still somewhat positive news. The higher price ranges are doing poorly, but hopefully showing some signs of stability as New listings moderate. The market for houses requiring “Jumbo” loans remains stagnant.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses was 237 compared to last month at 182. The Used homes DOM was 137 in October, compared with 134 last month (Sect A p.18).
Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $223,528 from $229.998 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes increased to $159,158 from $155,874 last month (Sect A p2).

The twelve month moving average price line for both New and Used homes is heading up! This reflects a normalizing mix of home prices, with the elimination of the distortion due to sales of the lower-end being inflated by the tax incentives.  (Sect A p2).

TWB 11/13/10

Alabama Real Estate Professionals See Little Change In Markets For 4th Quarter

Summary

Over 550 Real Estate Professionals responded to the fourth quarter survey which was conducted during the last two weeks of September. The survey, conducted by the Alabama Center For Real Estate (PDF available there) now has the largest participation of any Real Estate Survey and provides important market insights for regions in Alabama. The survey projects expectations for the fourth quarter of 2010.

The scale ranges from 0-100 with 0 being much worse, 100 being much better, and 50 indicating no change expected.

 

4th Quarter Alabama Center for Real Estate Real Estate Confidence Index

 

The overall (residential & commercial combined) confidence level was not significantly different from the survey results for the last quarter, although the overall score has dropped each quarter. The statewide overall score dropped from 44 to 43 (see red line above), indicating a continued deterioration in expectations from the previous quarter. The largest change was on the coast (see blue line above) where the overall score jumped from 36 to 42 which still indicates declining markets but not nearly as severe as last quarter when the oil spill was unchecked.

The expectations for the nation are ranked at 43, indicating that respondents expect real estate conditions nationally to continue to deteriorate modestly.

 

Statewide 4th 2010 Quarter Summary Index

 

Expectations for Alabama at 49 are more positive than the national outlook at 43 which is even with last quarter. This score indicates “modestly unfavorable expectations” for the overall Alabama Real Estate market.

Commercial market participants were very slightly more positive in their outlook this quarter than last with results up 1 point. Rural residential market participants were considerably more optimistic about financing availability. The rating for credit availability jumped by 10 points, to 40, a level which indicates contraction but not nearly as unfavorable as last quarter.

Regional Results

North Region

North Alabama continues to have the highest overall scores, but at the same time continues to drift downward. The total score of 45 indicates a consensus for slight deterioration in coming quarter. The outlook for the Alabama market remains comparatively high at 52, but this is a drop of 4 from the prior quarter, 56. Market participants are more pessimistic on the sales outlook for the 3^rd quarter than they were for the 2^nd at 52 this quarter vs. 53 last. This is still above the neutral rating of 50. Inventory is expected to increase to 43, a deterioration of 5 from last quarter.

 

Northern Region 4th Quarter expectations

 

Where we do not have sufficient respondents to provide a good sample, such as the “commercial categories”, we indicate that with NA.

North Central Region

The North Central Region is slightly more unfavorable than the North region of the state. The overall score decreased from 45 last quarter to 43 this quarter. The rural respondents see the Residential market getting worse but at a slower rate. The inventory score increased by ten points indicating an almost neutral, at 48. Residential pricing score is at 36 indicating continuing pressure for the coming quarter. Additionally, the North Central residential participants see credit availability as being tight at 41, although commercial participants are almost neutral at 49.

 

North Central Region 4th Quarter 2010

 

South Central Region

The South Central Region participants outlook remains unfavorable regarding the national outlook. While there was a decline in the national outlook it now sits at 41 down 5 points. There was continued improvement in credit expectations in the rural areas with an improvement of 9 points, but still unfavorable at 40.

 

South Central Region 4th Quarter 2010

 

South Region

The Southern Region had the most dramatic improvement in market outlook in most measures, due in large part to capping of the oil spill. The overall statistics showed the largest improvements of any area of +6 for the quarter to 42, still unfavorable, but improved. The respondents rated the national outlook at 45, but they ranked their own outlook 46, up 11 from last quarter. Sales expectations are up to 49, a 15 point improvement from last quarter.

 

South Region 4th Quarter 2010

 

The ACRE Leadership Council determined the need for a statewide industry confidence index and this was adopted as the Council’s first initiative. Tom Brander, Council Member, was selected by the Council and Grayson Glaze, ACRE Executive Director, to spearhead and work with the Center to conduct and produce its Alabama Real Estate Confidence Index (ARECI). The Council appreciates everyone who participated.

For further information contact Tom Brander at Tombrander@tombrander.com or Grayson Glaze at gglaze@cba.ua.edu